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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Kraft Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Kraft Kraft Heinz Company primarily offers its employees a healthcare plan through the Aon Health Solutions, which oversees benefits and health resources for the company. As a sizable employer, Kraft provides a variety of health plans, typically including comprehensive medical, dental, and vision coverage. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, healthcare costs are anticipated to surge significantly for Kraft employees, paralleling broader trends across the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. With health insurance premiums projected to increase by an average of 18%-and in some states exceeding 60% due to the potential expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies-many workers could face a financial burden. This perfect storm of rising medical costs and shifting insurance policies signals an increase in out-of-pocket expenses, revealing the critical need for strategic planning among employees to manage their healthcare finances effectively. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Kraft employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Kraft employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Kraft employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Kraft employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Kraft preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Kraft employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Kraft with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the pension plan offered by Kraft Foods Global, Inc. compare to standard retirement plans in terms of employer contribution allocation, and what specific policies should employees be aware of when considering their retirement options through Kraft Foods Global, Inc.?

Kraft Foods Global, Inc. Pension Plan vs. Standard Retirement Plans: The pension plan offered by Kraft Foods Global, Inc. operates as a defined benefit plan, which allocates employer contributions based on years of service and compensation, ensuring steady retirement income based on a formula. This contrasts with standard retirement plans like 401(k)s, where contributions are often employee-driven and subject to market performance. Employees should understand that the guaranteed nature of a pension provides long-term stability, but they must consider the plan’s specific terms regarding eligibility, vesting, and distribution options.

In what ways do the eligibility requirements for contributions to the retirement plans at Kraft Foods Global, Inc. align with IRS regulations for 2024, and what should employees know about these rules when planning their retirement funds?

Eligibility and IRS Regulations for 2024: The eligibility requirements for Kraft Foods Global, Inc.’s retirement plan align with IRS regulations by requiring one year of service for plan participation, with no minimum age requirement. This is typical for defined benefit plans and is in line with IRS standards for qualified plans. Employees planning their retirement funds should ensure they meet the service requirements and understand that contributions are employer-funded rather than employee-driven, unlike other retirement plans that follow IRS contribution limits(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

Considering the defined benefit plan structure of Kraft Foods Global, Inc., how are distributions processed at retirement, and what potential tax implications should employees consider when deciding between a lump sum or annuity option upon retirement?

Distribution Options and Tax Implications: Kraft Foods Global, Inc.’s defined benefit plan offers both lump sum and annuity options for retirement distributions. Employees must carefully consider tax implications: lump sums may be subject to immediate taxation, while annuity payments spread income over time, potentially offering tax advantages. Employees should evaluate their financial needs and tax situation to choose the most suitable option for their retirement(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

How does Kraft Foods Global, Inc. ensure the stability and sustainability of its retirement funds, known as the retirement plan funding levels, and what measures are in place to protect employees' interests in case of economic downturns?

Retirement Plan Stability and Economic Downturns: Kraft Foods Global, Inc. ensures the stability and sustainability of its retirement funds through a well-funded pension plan, with funding levels reported at over 100%. This level of funding offers protection against economic downturns, safeguarding employee interests. The company also maintains a significant fidelity bond, providing additional security for plan participants in case of adverse financial events(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

What resources are available to employees of Kraft Foods Global, Inc. for financial planning assistance related to their retirement, and how can knowledge of these resources influence their decisions regarding retirement savings and benefits?

Financial Planning Resources: Employees of Kraft Foods Global, Inc. have access to various resources, such as retirement plan summaries and consultations with financial planners. These tools can help employees make informed decisions regarding their retirement savings and benefits, potentially influencing their strategies for maximizing contributions and taking advantage of plan features like early retirement options(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

How should employees at Kraft Foods Global, Inc. approach the process for requesting a distribution from their retirement plan, and what specific information is required to expedite this process effectively?

Requesting a Distribution: Employees at Kraft Foods Global, Inc. must contact the plan administrator to request a distribution. Providing accurate personal information, retirement dates, and preferred payment methods is essential to expedite the process. It’s crucial to ensure that all documentation is complete to avoid delays(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

How does the participation in the additional retirement plans offered by Kraft Foods Global, Inc., such as the Thrift Investment Plan, benefit employees in the context of overall retirement savings and IRS contribution limits for 2024?

Additional Retirement Plans and IRS Contribution Limits: Participation in Kraft Foods Global, Inc.’s Thrift Investment Plan allows employees to enhance their retirement savings while adhering to IRS contribution limits for 2024. This plan complements the pension plan by offering a defined contribution option, giving employees the chance to maximize their overall retirement savings through a combination of employer contributions and personal investments(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

What communication channels does Kraft Foods Global, Inc. provide for employees to ask questions or seek clarification regarding their retirement benefits, and what should employees include in their inquiries to receive detailed answers?

Communication Channels for Retirement Benefits: Kraft Foods Global, Inc. provides clear communication channels through its HR department and plan administrators, where employees can ask detailed questions about their retirement benefits. It’s advisable for employees to include specific details in their inquiries, such as their years of service and expected retirement dates, to receive thorough responses(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

How do the overall retirement plan offerings at Kraft Foods Global, Inc. facilitate long-term financial security for employees compared to industry standards, and what unique features should employees leverage to maximize their retirement savings?

Maximizing Long-Term Financial Security: The retirement plan offerings at Kraft Foods Global, Inc. focus on long-term financial security by providing guaranteed income through its defined benefit structure. Compared to industry standards, this approach offers employees a more predictable and stable source of retirement income. Employees should leverage features like early retirement options and understand their full benefit potential to optimize their financial outcomes(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

What strategies should employees at Kraft Foods Global, Inc. employ to ensure they remain informed about ongoing changes in retirement planning regulations and plan offerings as they approach retirement, especially in light of any adjustments to IRS rules or company policies?

Staying Informed on Retirement Plan Changes: Employees should stay informed about ongoing changes in retirement planning regulations and company policies by regularly reviewing updates from Kraft Foods Global, Inc. and keeping track of IRS adjustments. Attending company-provided financial planning seminars and consulting with financial advisors can help ensure that employees are well-prepared for retirement, especially as IRS rules or plan offerings evolve(Kraft Foods Global Inc_…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Kraft Heinz offers both a traditional defined benefit pension plan and a defined contribution 401(k) plan. The defined benefit plan provides retirement income based on years of service and final average pay. The 401(k) plan features company matching contributions and various investment options, including target-date funds and mutual funds. Kraft Heinz provides financial planning resources and tools to help employees manage their retirement savings.

Kraft Heinz is undergoing a major restructuring in 2024, including layoffs and changes to its employee benefits to improve cost efficiency. The company continues to focus on its core food and beverage businesses. Understanding these changes is crucial in today's economic and business landscape, as they impact the company's strategic priorities and financial health.

Kraft Heinz includes RSUs in its employee compensation packages, which vest over a specific period and convert into shares. Stock options are also provided, enabling employees to purchase shares at a predetermined price.