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Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for PepsiCo PepsiCo's primary healthcare provider for employee health benefits is the UnitedHealthcare network, which offers a range of healthcare services and insurance plans for PepsiCo employees. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, PepsiCo and its employees may face notable increases in healthcare costs due to a combination of factors influencing the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Insurance premiums are projected to rise significantly, with some states seeing hikes upwards of 60%, primarily driven by the expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies. Additionally, the rising costs of medical services and pharmaceuticals are contributing to overall healthcare inflation, with insurers reporting anticipated increases in claims expenses. This perfect storm could potentially lead to out-of-pocket costs skyrocketing for consumers, creating substantial financial pressures. Click here to learn more
'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for PepsiCo employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.
'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, PepsiCo employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.
In this article, we will discuss:
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The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
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How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on PepsiCo employees.
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Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.
The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly PepsiCo employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.
The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets
The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. 1
For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.
It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.
The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles
John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. 2 Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.
This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.
It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at PepsiCo preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.
Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio
Anyone preparing for retirement, especially PepsiCo employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.
For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.
Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.
In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.
Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes
Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at PepsiCo with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.
To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.
As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.
Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.
Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.
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Sources:
1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.
2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.
3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.
4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.
5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.
What are the key steps an employee needs to take to prepare for retirement from PepsiCo, and how do these steps ensure that they maximize their benefits and entitlements?
Preparing for Retirement: Employees preparing for retirement from PepsiCo need to understand their retirement benefits, estimate their financial needs, and officially inform PepsiCo of their decision to retire. These steps are vital to ensure they maximize their benefits, including pensions, 401(k) plans, and retiree healthcare. The PepsiCo Savings and Retirement Center at Fidelity helps guide employees through this process, ensuring they make well-informed decisions(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
In what ways can PepsiCo employees navigate the complexities of their pension options, and what considerations should they have in mind when deciding between a lump sum and annuity?
Navigating Pension Options: PepsiCo employees can choose between a lump sum or an annuity for their pension benefits. When deciding, they should consider personal circumstances, such as life expectancy and financial needs. Employees can use the NetBenefits platform to estimate pension values at different retirement dates and consult financial counselors through Healthy Money for personalized advice(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
How does the PepsiCo Retiree Health Care Program function after retirement, and what criteria must be met for an employee to effectively enroll and maintain this coverage?
Retiree Health Care Program: PepsiCo offers a Retiree Health Care Program available until employees reach age 65, after which coverage transitions to the Via Benefits marketplace. Employees must actively enroll within 31 days of retirement to maintain coverage, or defer enrollment if preferred. The Retiree Health Care Contribution Estimator helps estimate future costs(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…)(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
How do the Automatic Retirement Contributions (ARC) at PepsiCo enhance an employee's retirement savings strategy, and what options do employees have to manage their ARC investments?
Automatic Retirement Contributions (ARC): Employees who receive ARC can manage their investments through NetBenefits. These contributions are automatically added to their retirement savings, enhancing long-term financial security. Employees can review and adjust their investment options to align with their retirement strategy(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
For employees aging 50 and over, what catch-up contribution options does PepsiCo provide to help with their 401(k) savings, and how can they take advantage of these benefits in their retirement planning?
Catch-Up Contributions: PepsiCo employees aged 50 and above can contribute additional amounts to their 401(k) plans under the catch-up contribution option. This benefit allows employees to boost their retirement savings, helping them prepare more effectively for retirement(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
What resources are available through PepsiCo for employees looking to calculate their retirement expenses, and how do these tools help in setting realistic financial goals for retirement?
Retirement Expense Calculators: PepsiCo provides tools like the Fidelity Planning & Guidance Center, which helps employees estimate retirement expenses. This tool includes health care costs, mortgage payments, and other potential retirement expenses, enabling employees to set realistic financial goals(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
How should employees at PepsiCo approach Social Security benefits when planning for retirement, and what role does the company play in facilitating their understanding of these benefits?
Social Security Benefits: Employees approaching retirement should consider when to start Social Security benefits. PepsiCo provides guidance through Healthy Money, helping employees understand how Social Security fits into their overall retirement strategy(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
What impact does health care coverage have on retired employees' finances, and how can PepsiCo retirees effectively use the Retiree Health Care Contribution Estimator to prepare for future health costs?
Retiree Health Care Contribution Estimator: Health care can significantly impact a retiree's budget. The Retiree Health Care Contribution Estimator is a tool PepsiCo retirees can use to prepare for future health costs. It helps employees estimate their contributions and explore different plan options to manage their post-retirement health care expenses(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
How can employees get in touch with the appropriate resources to learn more about PepsiCo’s retirement benefits, and what specific contact information should they keep handy during this process?
Contact Information: To learn more about PepsiCo's retirement benefits, employees should contact the PepsiCo Savings and Retirement Center at Fidelity at 1-800-632-2014. Additionally, they can access resources on NetBenefits or consult Healthy Money counselors for personalized financial guidance(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
What are the implications of interest rate fluctuations on pension benefit calculations at PepsiCo, and how should employees factor these rates into their retirement planning decisions? These questions encourage a comprehensive understanding of the various aspects of retirement planning specific to PepsiCo, as well as consideration for personal financial management.
Interest Rate Fluctuations and Pension Calculations: PepsiCo employees considering a lump sum pension payout should be aware that lump sum values are inversely related to interest rates. A higher interest rate results in a lower lump sum payout, so employees should monitor interest rate trends when planning their pension distribution(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…)(PepsiCo_October 2022_Ge…).
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