New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Sears Holdings Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Sears Holdings Sears Holdings typically provides healthcare benefits to its employees through various insurance plans, often with national insurers such as Aetna, UnitedHealthcare, or Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield being among the health carriers they have partnered with. The specific providers can vary by location and employee selection during open enrollment periods. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As we progress into 2026, the healthcare landscape is expected to face significant challenges, particularly for employees of Sears Holdings. Forecasts indicate steep premium hikes, with some states imposing increases of over 60%, largely influenced by rising medical costs and the potential expiration of enhanced ACA premium subsidies. The Kaiser Family Foundation highlights that without congressional intervention, millions of marketplace enrollees could see their out-of-pocket costs surge by more than 75%. This convergence of factors threatens to impose a substantial financial burden on both individuals and employers, necessitating proactive strategies to mitigate rising expenses. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Sears Holdings employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Sears Holdings employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Sears Holdings employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Sears Holdings employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Sears Holdings preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Sears Holdings employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Sears Holdings with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Sears Holdings Pension Plan differentiate between normal retirement, early retirement, and late retirement options for Kmart participants? In what ways do these options influence the retirement planning process for employees of Sears Holdings, and what specific considerations should Kmart employees be aware of when choosing one of these retirement paths, particularly in relation to their vested status?

Differentiation of Retirement Options: The Sears Holdings Pension Plan offers distinct options for normal, early, and late retirement. Normal retirement is available at age 65 or after five years of plan participation, whichever is later. Early retirement can be taken from age 55 but before 65, provided the employee is vested, with benefits subject to actuarial reduction unless certain conditions are met (like having at least 90 points, which is a sum of age and years of credited service). Late retirement pertains to any retirement after the normal retirement age, with pensions recalculated to reflect the delay in benefit commencement.

Considering the frozen status of the Sears Holdings Pension Plan, how does this impact the benefits eligibility for Kmart employees, and what implications does it have for their retirement savings strategies? In what ways should current employees factor in this frozen status when evaluating their overall retirement readiness and potential alternatives outside of the company plan?

Impact of Frozen Status: The freezing of the Sears Holdings Pension Plan on January 31, 1996, means that there have been no new accruals of benefits or participants since that date. For Kmart employees, this impacts their benefits eligibility by capping the pension benefits at levels earned up to the freeze date. Employees need to consider this stagnation in benefits when planning for retirement, potentially seeking additional retirement savings avenues to bridge any shortfall.

What are the essential calculations involved in determining the retirement benefits under the Sears Holdings Pension Plan for Kmart employees? Specifically, how do the Career Average Pay and Final Average Pay formulas come into play, and what factors should employees consider when estimating their future retirement payouts?

Essential Calculations for Retirement Benefits: Pension benefits for Kmart employees under the Sears Holdings Pension Plan are calculated using either the Career Average Pay or the Final Average Pay formulas. These calculations take into account an employee's years of credited service and compensation up to the freeze date. Factors like estimated Social Security benefits and specific formulas (such as a deduction based on Social Security benefits under the Final Average Pay formula) play crucial roles in determining the final pension payout.

How can Sears Holdings employees best navigate the process of applying for benefits under the Pension Plan? What specific steps should participants take to ensure their applications are processed correctly, and what important deadlines should they be aware of to avoid any negative consequences on their retirement benefits?

Navigating the Benefits Application Process: To apply for pension benefits, employees must submit a formal application, ideally 30 to 90 days before the intended commencement date. It is crucial to ensure all personal information, including marital status and spouse details, is up-to-date to avoid delays or inaccuracies in benefit processing. Missing application deadlines can lead to postponed benefit payments or unwanted default options.

In what situations can Kmart employees expect to receive a Deferred Vested Pension, and how is the calculation for this pension affected by their previous employment and vesting service? Employees should be aware of the important factors influencing their eligibility and the steps necessary to maintain their retirement benefits after leaving the company.

Eligibility and Calculation for Deferred Vested Pension: A Deferred Vested Pension is available to employees who leave the company after becoming vested but prior to qualifying for retirement. The calculation mirrors that of a normal retirement pension, with possible early commencement reductions. Understanding the timing of benefit commencement and the potential reductions for early start is vital for planning.

How does the Sears Holdings Pension Plan address tax considerations for employees receiving both monthly payments and lump sum payments upon retirement? What tax implications should Kmart participants be aware of, particularly in relation to IRS rules for distributions and potential penalties for early withdrawal?

Tax Implications of Pension Receipt: Pension payments, whether monthly or lump sum, are subject to federal taxes. Monthly benefits are taxed as ordinary income, while lump sums might be eligible for special tax treatments or rollover options to defer taxes. It’s important for Kmart employees to consider these implications and possibly consult with a tax advisor to optimize tax liability.

What are the rights and protections afforded to Kmart participants under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) as they navigate their retirement benefits with the Sears Holdings Pension Plan? How can employees leverage these rights to ensure they are receiving all the benefits to which they are entitled?

ERISA Rights and Protections: Under ERISA, Kmart employees are entitled to certain rights including the ability to appeal denied benefits, access to plan information, and assurances of fair and equitable treatment of their benefits. Leveraging these protections ensures that employees receive all due benefits.

What steps should Kmart employees take to update their personal information to ensure they continue receiving their benefits without interruption, especially in the context of missing participants or uncashed checks? What resources and contacts at Sears Holdings are available to assist with these updates?

Updating Personal Information: Maintaining accurate personal information with the pension plan is crucial for uninterrupted benefit payments. Employees should promptly update changes such as address, marital status, or beneficiaries to prevent issues with benefit distributions or lost checks.

How does the process of transferring between affiliated employers impact pension benefits for Kmart employees under the Sears Holdings Pension Plan? What considerations should be taken into account concerning Credited Service and Vesting Service during such transfers, and how can employees ensure they do not lose any entitled benefits?

Impact of Transfers Between Affiliated Employers: Transferring between Sears Holdings’ affiliated employers can affect pension benefits differently depending on whether the employer participates in the pension plan. It's essential to understand how such transfers impact credited and vesting service accruals.

For Kmart employees seeking more information about their benefits under the Sears Holdings Pension Plan, what is the best way to contact company representatives? How can they effectively communicate their questions or concerns to ensure they receive accurate and timely information regarding their retirement benefits?

Contacting Plan Representatives: Kmart employees seeking clarity on their pension benefits should contact the Sears Holdings Pension Service Center. Effective communication, including prepared questions and necessary documentation, will aid in obtaining accurate and comprehensive information.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Sears Holdings Corporation's pension plans were taken over by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) following the company's bankruptcy. The two defined benefit pension plans have been frozen since 2005, meaning no new benefit accruals are added. The plans are underfunded by approximately $1.4 billion, with PBGC assuming responsibility to ensure pension payments continue. These plans cover about 90,000 participants who worked for Sears, Roebuck and Co., and Kmart Corporation. Despite the underfunding, PBGC is expected to cover the vast majority of pension benefits owed under these plans. Participants can manage their benefits and verify information through PBGC's online platform or service center.

Bankruptcy and Store Closures: Sears Holdings emerged from bankruptcy with significant store closures, reducing from nearly 700 stores to less than 25. The company has been liquidating its remaining assets and recently announced more store closures in 2024. The focus is on resolving bankruptcy-related issues and managing the liquidation process effectively (Sources: The Layoff, Yahoo Finance).

Sears Holdings offered both RSUs and stock options before its bankruptcy. RSUs vested over time, providing shares, while stock options allowed employees to buy shares at a fixed price.

Sears Holdings, now part of Transformco, has faced numerous challenges in recent years, impacting its ability to provide comprehensive employee healthcare benefits. The strategic transformations initiated since 2017 aimed to improve operational performance and liquidity, which included measures such as obtaining additional loan proceeds and real estate sales. However, the company's financial struggles and store closures have also led to significant changes in employee benefits, including healthcare. As part of its efforts to stabilize and restructure, Sears has focused on reducing outstanding debt and pension obligations, contributing almost $4 billion to its pension plan since 2005 due to prolonged low interest rates. In 2023, Transformco continued to navigate its financial challenges, which have influenced its healthcare benefits offerings. The company has aimed to maintain basic healthcare coverage for its employees despite ongoing restructuring efforts. This includes providing access to medical, dental, and vision plans, although the specifics of these benefits and any enhancements over the past years have been less prominently highlighted compared to the broader financial strategies and operational changes. The focus on financial stability and cost reduction remains critical for Transformco as it seeks to ensure the viability of its employee benefits programs amid economic uncertainties.

Additional Articles

Check Out Articles for Sears Holdings employees

For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Sears Holdings at 3333 beverly road Hoffman Estates, IL 60179; or by calling them at 1-800-697-3277.

https://www.pbgc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/sears-holdings-summary-plan-description.pdf - Page 5, https://88sears.com/documents/pension-plan-2022.pdf - Page 12, https://88sears.com/documents/pension-plan-2023.pdf - Page 15, https://88sears.com/documents/pension-plan-2024.pdf - Page 8, https://www.consultrms.com/documents/sep-2022.pdf - Page 22, https://www.revenue.alabama.gov/documents/defined-benefit-plan.pdf - Page 28, https://www.mayoclinic.org/documents/mayo-pension-plan-2023.pdf - Page 20, https://mycentralstatespension.org/documents/annual-funding-notice-2023.pdf - Page 14, https://frs.fl.gov/documents/frs-pension-plan-2023.pdf - Page 17, https://fppta.org/documents/florida-pension-issues-2024.pdf - Page 23