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Interest rates are a key driver of most financial assets. While most often referenced in relation to the bond market, rates are also a key input in traditional equity valuation models, which incorporate market interest rates to determine the appropriate rate to discount future cash flows. Interest rates are an essential element in bond pricing and the yield that investors require to own a particular fixed-income security. Since hitting an all-time low in 2020, interest rates increased in 2021 and have continued that climb higher thus far in 2022. This has put pressure on fixed incomes and certain areas of the equity market, which has led to stress in certain areas of the stock market, such as growth stocks, which can be sensitive to interest rate shocks. With that in mind, let’s examine why rates have been moving up, and whether this should be a cause for concern for Duke Energy employees.
MORE AGGRESSIVE FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already raised interest rates by 75 basis points this year. A 25 basis point hike in March followed by a 50 basis point hike in May. The Fed is currently expected to hike rates by 50 basis points in both the June and July meetings and will continue to hike through the better part of 2022. With inflation running hot and the job market showing strength, the fact that the Fed is finally moving away from zero shows confidence in the health of the job market. But the speed with which interest rates are expected to go up underscores its concern about the soaring cost of living. Americans living in areas like California or New York will experience this policy shift through higher borrowing costs: No longer will it be insanely cheap to take out mortgages or car loans and this along with higher inflation may lead to less investment in the market and more spending on needs, which is a main reason for market volatility, and important for Duke Energy employees and retirees to keep in mind.
INFLATION CONCERNS
Inflation is also a primary determinant of long-term interest rates. Rising inflation has the potential to eat away at fixed-income returns, so naturally, inflation expectations are a component of the yield that investors require to own fixed income. Put simply, inflation is a result of too much money chasing too few goods, and there are concerns that the increase in the level of money in circulation may lead to this. The extraordinary level of fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place to combat the economic damage of Coronavirus caused a significant increase in the M2 money supply. As a result, we are currently seeing this increase in the level of money in circulation translate to a pickup in consumer spending, but also elevated inflation.
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RISKS OF A RECESSION
Now that the pandemic has started to recede, the Fed has once again started to raise short-
term interest rates. This policy change has caused market volatility to spike for the three
major reasons to the right.
Today as the Fed begins to aggressively hike interest rates, market participants worry we may endure a period of high inflation alongside weakening economic growth — otherwise known as stagflation.
This environment is another example of why we believe in and suggest to our clients from Duke Energy that staying diversified is the best way to insulate portfolios from being too exposed to one risk factor.
Economic Definitions
M2 Money Supply: The M2 Money Supply, also referred to as “M2” or “Money Stock,” measures the amount of currency in circulation. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as less liquid money, such as saving bank accounts.
How does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan calculate benefits at normal retirement age, specifically for employees who reach the age of 65? In what circumstances might an employee consider retiring before reaching this age, and how would the benefits differ if they choose this option?
Benefit Calculation at Normal Retirement Age: Duke Employees' Retirement Plan calculates benefits for employees who retire at age 65 by applying a formula that includes 1.25% of their average final compensation for the first 20 years of credited service and 1.66% for any additional years. If an employee retires before 65, they can do so after age 45 with 15 years of service, but their benefits will be reduced based on how early they retire, resulting in lower payments due to a longer payout period.
What considerations should an employee keep in mind regarding their unused sick leave or carry-over bank hours when calculating benefits under the Duke Employees’ Retirement Plan? How does Duke utilize these factors to enhance an employee's credited service for the purpose of benefit calculation?
Impact of Unused Sick Leave and Carry-Over Bank Hours: Unused sick leave and carry-over bank hours are converted into additional credited service, which can enhance the calculation of retirement benefits. Employees who have accumulated these hours can see their credited service extended, leading to higher pension benefits at retirement.
In what situations would an employee's benefits under the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan be automatically paid in a lump sum? How does the Plan determine the value of benefits that fall below the threshold for monthly payouts, and what implications does this have for retirement planning?
Lump-Sum Payments for Small Benefits: If the value of an employee's benefit is $5,000 or less, Duke Employees' Retirement Plan automatically pays it as a lump sum. For benefits between $5,000 and $10,000, employees can choose between a lump-sum payment or a monthly pension. This can significantly impact retirement planning, especially for employees weighing whether to take a smaller upfront amount or spread it over time.
How does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan handle benefit adjustments for employees who continue to work beyond their normal retirement age? What factors influence how these adjustments are calculated, and what implications might this have for future financial planning for employees nearing retirement?
Benefit Adjustments for Postponed Retirement: Employees who continue working beyond their normal retirement date will see their benefits increased annually (by no less than 10%) to account for the shorter period during which they will receive payments. The plan recalculates benefits based on the employee’s continued service and compensation after age 65.
What options are available to employees of Duke University regarding payment forms when they retire, and what are the long-term implications of choosing each option? How do these choices affect both the retiree's monthly income and survivor benefits for a spouse or other beneficiary?
Payment Form Options and Implications: At retirement, employees can choose various payment options such as a single life annuity, joint and survivor annuities, or a lump-sum payment. These choices affect the amount received monthly and any survivor benefits for a spouse or beneficiary. Employees should carefully consider their long-term financial needs and the needs of their beneficiaries when selecting a payment option.
What specific protections does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan provide for spouses in the event of an employee's death, and how does this influence the choice of payment options? What steps must an employee take to ensure that their spouse's rights are upheld under the Plan?
Spousal Protections: The Plan provides protections for spouses in the event of an employee's death. A surviving spouse can receive 50% of the employee's reduced monthly benefit through a joint and survivor annuity. Employees must take steps to ensure spousal rights are protected by selecting the appropriate payment option and ensuring the necessary documentation is completed.
How can employees of Duke University ensure that they are informed about their rights under ERISA while participating in the Employees' Retirement Plan? What resources and tools does Duke provide to help employees understand and assert these rights?
Employee Rights Under ERISA: Duke provides resources for employees to understand their rights under ERISA, including access to plan documents and assistance in filing claims. Employees are encouraged to use Duke's available tools to assert their rights and ensure they are fully informed about the benefits available to them under the Plan.
In what ways can employees at Duke University navigate the complexities of reemployment after retirement, and how does their choice of retiree status affect their benefits? What regulations govern how benefits are recalculated if they choose to return to work at Duke?
Reemployment After Retirement: Employees who return to work at Duke after retiring can continue to receive their pension if they work fewer than 1,000 hours per year. However, if they exceed 1,000 hours, their payments will be paused and recalculated based on additional service and earnings when they retire again. This provides flexibility for employees considering reemployment after retirement.
What impact do legislative changes, such as those introduced by the IRS, have on the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan’s structure and benefits? How should employees approach understanding these changes in the context of their personal retirement strategies?
Impact of Legislative Changes: Changes introduced by the IRS or other regulatory bodies can impact the structure of the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan and its benefits. Employees should stay informed about these changes and how they affect personal retirement strategies, particularly regarding tax laws and pension calculations.
How can employees at Duke University contact the Retirement Board for questions or clarifications regarding their retirement benefits? What is the best approach for reaching out to ensure that they receive timely and accurate information?
Contacting the Retirement Board: Employees can contact Duke's Retirement Board for any questions or clarifications regarding their retirement benefits. The Retirement Board is responsible for managing the Plan, and employees are encouraged to reach out directly for timely and accurate information to address any concerns about their retirement.
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