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Understanding the Rise in Interest Rates: What It Means for Harvard Employees and Their Retirement Plans

Interest rates are a key driver of most financial assets. While most often referenced in relation to the bond market, rates are also a key input in traditional equity valuation models, which incorporate market interest rates to determine the appropriate rate to discount future cash flows. Interest rates are an essential element in bond pricing and the yield that investors require to own a particular fixed-income security. Since hitting an all-time low in 2020, interest rates increased in 2021 and have continued that climb higher thus far in 2022. This has put pressure on fixed incomes and certain areas of the equity market, which has led to stress in certain areas of the stock market, such as growth stocks, which can be sensitive to interest rate shocks. With that in mind, let’s examine why rates have been moving up, and whether this should be a cause for concern for Harvard employees.

MORE AGGRESSIVE FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already raised interest rates by 75 basis points this year. A 25 basis point hike in March followed by a 50 basis point hike in May. The Fed is currently expected to hike rates by 50 basis points in both the June and July meetings and will continue to hike through the better part of 2022. With inflation running hot and the job market showing strength, the fact that the Fed is finally moving away from zero shows confidence in the health of the job market. But the speed with which interest rates are expected to go up underscores its concern about the soaring cost of living. Americans living in areas like California or New York will experience this policy shift through higher borrowing costs: No longer will it be insanely cheap to take out mortgages or car loans and this along with higher inflation may lead to less investment in the market and more spending on needs, which is a main reason for market volatility, and important for Harvard employees and retirees to keep in mind.

INFLATION CONCERNS
Inflation is also a primary determinant of long-term interest rates. Rising inflation has the potential to eat away at fixed-income returns, so naturally, inflation expectations are a component of the yield that investors require to own fixed income. Put simply, inflation is a result of too much money chasing too few goods, and there are concerns that the increase in the level of money in circulation may lead to this. The extraordinary level of fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place to combat the economic damage of Coronavirus caused a significant increase in the M2 money supply. As a result, we are currently seeing this increase in the level of money in circulation translate to a pickup in consumer spending, but also elevated inflation.

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RISKS OF A RECESSION
Now that the pandemic has started to recede, the Fed has once again started to raise short-
term interest rates. This policy change has caused market volatility to spike for the three
major reasons to the right.

Today as the Fed begins to aggressively hike interest rates, market participants worry we may endure a period of high inflation alongside weakening economic growth — otherwise known as stagflation.

This environment is another example of why we believe in and suggest to our clients from Harvard that staying diversified is the best way to insulate portfolios from being too exposed to one risk factor.

Economic Definitions
M2 Money Supply: The M2 Money Supply, also referred to as “M2” or “Money Stock,” measures the amount of currency in circulation. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as less liquid money, such as saving bank accounts.

What are the key distribution options available to employees at Harvard University upon retirement, and how do these options differ regarding tax implications? Employees should understand both the annuity options and lump-sum distributions available under the Harvard University Retirement Plan, as these can significantly affect their financial outcomes in retirement. Harvard University provides various choices depending on the lump-sum value, and it's essential to analyze each choice carefully to maximize retirement benefits.

Key Distribution Options: Upon retirement, Harvard University employees can choose between a lump-sum distribution, a rollover to another retirement account, or an annuity with different options, including a single-life annuity or joint and survivor annuity(Harvard University Reti…). Lump-sum payments may lead to immediate tax liabilities, while annuity options offer more tax-deferred growth(Harvard University Reti…).

How does the choice of an annuity payment method impact the long-term financial security of retirees at Harvard University? Employees need to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of single life versus joint and survivor annuities, considering not only their own financial needs but also those of potential beneficiaries. The decision can affect monthly income levels and the benefits passed on to surviving partners or dependents.

Impact of Annuity Payment Method: Choosing a single-life annuity maximizes monthly payments but provides no benefits after the retiree’s death. A joint and survivor annuity reduces monthly payments but ensures ongoing income for a surviving spouse or beneficiary, offering more long-term financial security for both parties(Harvard University Reti…).

What specific conditions must be met for a retired employee of Harvard University to elect the Consolidated Harvard Annuity Option (CHAO), and what benefits might this offer? Understanding the eligibility criteria for CHAO and its implications on retirement planning will help employees make informed decisions. The CHAO allows for a potential increase in annuity benefits, but there are specific deadlines and requirements that participants must adhere to.

Consolidated Harvard Annuity Option (CHAO): To elect the CHAO, employees must terminate their employment after April 30, 2006, and have a Basic Retirement Account balance exceeding $1,000. They must elect the CHAO within 60 days of termination to exchange their investment account for a higher annuity(Harvard University Reti…)(Harvard University Reti…).

How can employees at Harvard University ensure that they have properly designated beneficiaries within their retirement plans, and what are the ramifications of failing to do so? The importance of keeping beneficiary designations up to date cannot be overstated, as it impacts how benefits are distributed upon the participantâ€™s death. Employees must familiarize themselves with the required forms and the potential consequences of having outdated or incorrect designations.

Beneficiary Designations: Employees should ensure their beneficiary designations are up to date by completing the appropriate forms. Failure to do so could result in benefits being distributed according to marital status or to unintended recipients(Harvard University Reti…).

In what ways do the spousal consent rules affect the retirement options for married employees of Harvard University, and why is this a critical aspect to consider when planning for retirement? Understanding the spousal consent requirements is vital for retirees since failing to adhere to these regulations can lead to unintended consequences, including issues related to benefit disbursement. Employees should seek to navigate these requirements carefully to secure their desired benefit structure.

Spousal Consent Rules: Married employees must obtain spousal consent, witnessed by a notary or plan representative, if they choose a retirement distribution option that does not provide survivor benefits to their spouse(Harvard University Reti…). Failure to adhere to these rules can result in complications with benefit disbursement(Harvard University Reti…).

How does the $1,000 threshold affect retirement distribution choices for employees retiring from Harvard University, and what specific options are available once this threshold is considered? Employees need to be informed about the options that arise based on the value of their Basic Retirement Account when making distribution decisions. Knowing whether an annuity or lump-sum option is available can significantly influence retirement planning and benefits.

$1,000 Threshold: If an employee's Basic Retirement Account value is $1,000 or less, they must take a lump-sum payment or rollover, as annuity options are unavailable. The lump-sum is subject to tax withholding unless rolled over(Harvard University Reti…).

What steps should employees at Harvard University take if they wish to defer their retirement distributions, and what factors should they consider before making this decision? Deferring distributions can offer various tax advantages and impact retirement income strategies. Employees should evaluate their financial situations, anticipate future needs, and understand the timelines involved in the deferment process to make sound choices.

Deferring Distributions: Employees can defer their distributions until the April 1st following the year they turn 70½. Deferring can offer tax advantages and allow time for the value of retirement funds to grow(Harvard University Reti…).

What are the consequences of electing a lump-sum distribution from a retirement account at Harvard University, particularly in terms of immediate and long-term tax implications? Employees considering a lump-sum distribution must recognize that such options can lead to significant tax liabilities and potential penalties, especially if improperly managed. A thorough understanding of these financial repercussions can aid in making choices that align with retirement goals.

Lump-Sum Distribution Consequences: Opting for a lump-sum distribution can result in substantial tax liabilities, including early withdrawal penalties if under age 59½. However, rolling the distribution into another retirement account can mitigate tax impacts(Harvard University Reti…).

How can employees contact the Harvard University Retirement Center to learn more about their retirement plan options, and what information should they prepare before reaching out? Understanding how to access information and ask the right questions is crucial for employees looking to navigate their retirement options effectively. Having personal details and specific inquiries ready when contacting the Harvard University Retirement Center will facilitate a more productive dialogue.

Contacting the Retirement Center: Employees can reach the Harvard University Retirement Center at 800-527-1398 for information. They should have their pension statement, retirement account details, and any specific questions prepared(Harvard University Reti…).

What should employees at Harvard University consider when choosing whether to roll over their retirement benefits into another employer's retirement plan or an IRA? The decision to roll over retirement benefits comes with various implications, including investment choices, fees, and the overall management of retirement funds. An in-depth understanding of the pros and cons of rollover options will empower employees to make informed decisions that best suit their financial futures.

Rollover Options: Rolling over retirement benefits into another employer’s plan or an IRA allows employees to maintain tax-deferred growth. It is crucial to compare fees, investment options, and withdrawal rules before making a decision(Harvard University Reti…).