Interest rates are a key driver of most financial assets. While most often referenced in relation to the bond market, rates are also a key input in traditional equity valuation models, which incorporate market interest rates to determine the appropriate rate to discount future cash flows. Interest rates are an essential element in bond pricing and the yield that investors require to own a particular fixed-income security. Since hitting an all-time low in 2020, interest rates increased in 2021 and have continued that climb higher thus far in 2022. This has put pressure on fixed incomes and certain areas of the equity market, which has led to stress in certain areas of the stock market, such as growth stocks, which can be sensitive to interest rate shocks. With that in mind, let’s examine why rates have been moving up, and whether this should be a cause for concern for Union Pacific employees.
MORE AGGRESSIVE FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has already raised interest rates by 75 basis points this year. A 25 basis point hike in March followed by a 50 basis point hike in May. The Fed is currently expected to hike rates by 50 basis points in both the June and July meetings and will continue to hike through the better part of 2022. With inflation running hot and the job market showing strength, the fact that the Fed is finally moving away from zero shows confidence in the health of the job market. But the speed with which interest rates are expected to go up underscores its concern about the soaring cost of living. Americans living in areas like California or New York will experience this policy shift through higher borrowing costs: No longer will it be insanely cheap to take out mortgages or car loans and this along with higher inflation may lead to less investment in the market and more spending on needs, which is a main reason for market volatility, and important for Union Pacific employees and retirees to keep in mind.
INFLATION CONCERNS
Inflation is also a primary determinant of long-term interest rates. Rising inflation has the potential to eat away at fixed-income returns, so naturally, inflation expectations are a component of the yield that investors require to own fixed income. Put simply, inflation is a result of too much money chasing too few goods, and there are concerns that the increase in the level of money in circulation may lead to this. The extraordinary level of fiscal and monetary stimulus put in place to combat the economic damage of Coronavirus caused a significant increase in the M2 money supply. As a result, we are currently seeing this increase in the level of money in circulation translate to a pickup in consumer spending, but also elevated inflation.
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RISKS OF A RECESSION
Now that the pandemic has started to recede, the Fed has once again started to raise short-
term interest rates. This policy change has caused market volatility to spike for the three
major reasons to the right.
Today as the Fed begins to aggressively hike interest rates, market participants worry we may endure a period of high inflation alongside weakening economic growth — otherwise known as stagflation.
This environment is another example of why we believe in and suggest to our clients from Union Pacific that staying diversified is the best way to insulate portfolios from being too exposed to one risk factor.
Economic Definitions
M2 Money Supply: The M2 Money Supply, also referred to as “M2” or “Money Stock,” measures the amount of currency in circulation. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as less liquid money, such as saving bank accounts.
What are the specific eligibility requirements for employees of Union Pacific Corporation to participate in the pension plan, and how might these requirements evolve as IRS regulations change? Understanding how Union Pacific Corporation aligns its eligibility criteria with broader IRS regulations can help employees assess their own eligibility for the pension plan, particularly in light of any new IRS guidelines issued for 2024.
Eligibility Requirements for Pension Plan Participation: Eligibility to participate in the Union Pacific Corporation pension plan is governed by specific criteria set forth in the plan documents. As of January 1, 2018, the plan was closed to new participants, meaning individuals hired on or after this date are not eligible. For existing employees, eligibility to accrue benefits continued provided they were active participants as of December 31, 2017, and remained in covered employment. Changes in IRS regulations could potentially alter these eligibility criteria by requiring adjustments to maintain compliance with legal standards, potentially affecting who can accrue benefits in the future.
How does Union Pacific Corporation calculate an employee's final average compensation for pension benefits? Given the potential for changes in compensation structures, it is essential for employees at Union Pacific Corporation to comprehend how their average compensation is determined and how this figure might impact their retirement planning.
Calculation of Final Average Compensation: The pension plan calculates an employee's final average compensation based on the average monthly compensation over the 36-consecutive month period out of the last 120 months of active participation that yields the highest average. This includes base pay, overtime, and certain incentive and bonus payments. Understanding this calculation is crucial for employees to appreciate how raises, bonuses, and other compensation changes might impact their pension benefits.
What forms of payment options are available to employees of Union Pacific Corporation when they choose to retire, and how do these options influence the total benefit received? Employees need detailed information on the different payment structures to make informed decisions that suit their financial needs in retirement.
Payment Options Available at Retirement: Union Pacific offers various payment options for pension benefits upon retirement. Employees can choose a lifetime annuity or opt for joint and survivor annuities, providing continued benefits to a designated beneficiary. Other options include certain annuities that guarantee payments for a set period, regardless of the employee's lifespan. These choices allow employees to tailor retirement benefits to their financial needs and family circumstances.
In what ways does Union Pacific Corporation integrate Social Security and Railroad Retirement benefits into the pension plan, and how does this integration affect the overall retirement income for employees? Employees should explore the implications of these benefits on their pensions to develop a comprehensive retirement income strategy.
Integration of Social Security and Railroad Retirement Benefits: The pension benefits are coordinated with Social Security or Railroad Retirement benefits through an offset formula in the pension plan. This integration reduces the pension benefit by a portion of the government retirement benefits projected at the time of retirement, reflecting that some of the funding for these benefits comes from Union Pacific. Employees need to understand how this interaction affects their total retirement income to plan effectively.
What strategies can employees of Union Pacific Corporation employ to maximize their pension benefits prior to retirement while adhering to IRS limits? Employees must be informed of practical steps they can take to enhance their benefits within the framework established by IRS guidelines.
Maximizing Pension Benefits: To maximize pension benefits under the IRS limits, Union Pacific employees can ensure they maximize their earnings during the final average compensation period, continue employment as long as possible to increase credited service, and make strategic decisions about retirement age and benefit commencement. Understanding the interplay of these factors with IRS contribution and benefit limits is essential for optimizing pension payouts.
How does the vesting schedule work within Union Pacific Corporation's pension plan, and what implications does this have for employees who leave the company before full vesting? An understanding of the vesting schedule is crucial for employees at Union Pacific Corporation to grasp the long-term benefits they might forfeit by leaving before they are fully vested.
Vesting Schedule: The vesting schedule is crucial as it determines an employee's entitlement to pension benefits upon leaving the company before retirement age. Union Pacific's plan requires employees to complete five years of vesting service to qualify for a vested benefit, which is payable as early as age 55. Employees considering leaving Union Pacific should be aware of how their vesting status might affect their pension entitlements.
What responsibilities do employees have to keep Union Pacific Corporation informed about their earnings records, particularly when claims for benefits arise, and what might happen if these records are not accurately reported? Employees should be aware of their duties to maintain their benefits and the potential consequences of noncompliance within the pension plan.
Responsibilities for Reporting Earnings: Employees are responsible for ensuring that Union Pacific has accurate records of their earnings to calculate pension benefits accurately. Failure to report or correct discrepancies in earnings records can lead to miscalculations in pension benefits, affecting retirement income. It's vital for employees to regularly review their earnings records and report any inaccuracies.
How does Union Pacific Corporation ensure compliance with ERISA regulations as they relate to employee retirement benefits, and what rights do employees have under these regulations? Employees of Union Pacific Corporation should familiarize themselves with their rights under ERISA to ensure they are adequately protected when claiming pension benefits.
Compliance with ERISA Regulations: Union Pacific ensures compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) regulations, which protect employees' rights to their pension benefits. Employees have specific rights under these regulations, including the right to receive information about their pension plan, appeal denials of benefits, and sue for benefits or breaches of fiduciary duty. Awareness of these rights is important for employees to safeguard their benefits.
What happens to the pension benefits of employees of Union Pacific Corporation in the event of a company merger or acquisition, and how can employees prepare for these changes? Understanding the potential impacts of organizational changes on their pension benefits can enable employees to safeguard their retirement plans.
Impact of Company Mergers or Acquisitions: In the event of a merger or acquisition, employees' pension benefits could be affected. Union Pacific's pension plan provisions include terms for handling benefits under such circumstances. Employees should be proactive in understanding how these corporate changes might impact their pension benefits and seek clarity on their rights and options.
How can employees of Union Pacific Corporation contact the Benefits Group to inquire further about the pension plan and related questions? Clear guidance on contacting the Benefits Group will assist employees in accessing the information necessary to navigate their retirement options effectively.
Contacting the Benefits Group: Employees with questions or who need assistance regarding their pension plan can contact Union Pacific's Benefits Group. Having the contact information handy ensures that employees can promptly address concerns or seek guidance about their retirement benefits, aiding in effective retirement planning.