Don't Panic: A Bull Case for Equities Ernst & Young

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In light of recent market swings discussed in the article, Ernst & Young employees should keep a conservative portfolio,' said the report. Adapting your Retirement strategy to weather market volatilities can protect your future financial security without sacrificing growth as you approach Retirement, says Tyson Mavar of the Retirement Group.

Given recent steep dives in both stocks and bonds, Wesley Boudreaux of the Retirement Group says Ernst & Young employees should do some serious financial planning. This mitigates risks and positions you to profit from market recoveries - a resilient investment strategy in the face of economic uncertainty. '

In this article, we will discuss:

1. Market Volatility and Retirement: How market fluctuations affect retirees' savings and why a diversified investment portfolio is important.

2. Historical Market Recovery: History of how stocks have rebounded from corrections and the value of historical data in predicting market trends.

3. Economic Fundamentals and Projections: The robustness of U.S. economy fundamentals and their ability to contain short-term market volatilities.

DON'T PANIC

Several studies suggest that extreme market volatility may be especially difficult for retirees or those approaching retirement age to recover from possible losses. According to Fidelity Investments, significant market downturns can erode retirement savings for those in their 60s by as much as 26%, underscoring the importance of a resilient, long-term investment strategy. That underscores the need for a diversified investment portfolio and a solid retirement plan that reflects possible market volatility.

Market corrections have punctuated the past several years, with equity and bond markets at times moving lower together, reminding investors why staying invested and diversified matters. (1)

And worse than that, investors like those in Texas or New York are losing nearly as much as they are on the equity side of their portfolios. Fixed income markets have also faced meaningful volatility in recent years, with rising interest rates creating bond price headwinds alongside equity market swings. (2) Periods of simultaneous equity and bond declines have historically led some investors to flee to cash at exactly the wrong time, which is why we feel it important to address this with our Ernst & Young clients.

A hasty reaction could leave investors missing out on a rebound, since historical equity performance following market corrections and solid underlying economic fundamentals point to a stock market rebound sooner rather than later. Contact retirement-focused advisors today if you're unsure of your situation.

A BULL CASE FOR EQUITIES:

OUR GUIDE - HISTORY. The S&P 500 entered correction territory again 22 trading days after exiting; it makes its fastest return to negative 10% performance since November 2008, when the Great Financial Crisis began. (3) For our Ernst & Young clients, the table below excludes periods where a correction turned into a bear market and shows how the S&P 500 fared after exiting a correction. In the S&P 500, the average gain after exiting a correction was nearly 14%, based on data going back to 1928. (4)

Not every bad start to the year is indicative of things to come, we remind our Ernst & Young clients. Market corrections, while jarring in the moment, have historically been followed by strong recoveries.

In spite of this, stocks recover nicely after the worst starts - on average - and rise 10%. Double digit gains are certainly possible in the last eight months of the year based on statistics for our Ernst & Young clients. (5)

FOR MARKETS IT IS A BULL CASE: STRONG ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS Aside from historical performance that backed a second-half rally in equities, fundamentals for the U.S. economy remain solid. Demand resilience, robust corporate and consumer financial positioning, and rising earnings may provide shock absorbers during the near- to medium-term volatility that market observers expect to remain.

Initial expectations for first-quarter economic development showed a surprise contraction. US real GDP lost 1.4% (adjusted for inflation) from +6.9% in the previous quarter. This sharp slowdown was due to a drag from exports, a drop in inventory spending after a large uptick in the prior quarter and, less notably, in government spending. Moreover, consumer expenditure grew at a healthy pace - it makes up almost 70% of the U.S. economy. Personal consumption grew by 2.7% from 2.5% in the previous month, with increased expenditure on services. Over the previous decade, consumer spending grew an average of 2.3% per year. (1)

Business investment jumped by 9.2%, the highest level in a year - another positive economic indicator. If companies accelerate automation and investment to cope with persistent labor shortages, the broad momentum in capital expenditures should continue. Overall, the extremely constrained labor market and wage growth help consumers. We think consumption will continue to support above-average economic growth this year as the effects of the pandemic are easing - and remind our Ernst & Young clients of this. One last caveat: economic growth can differ greatly from stock market growth - as the markets currently stand.

Trying to predict the market by selling existing positions and entering a supposed 'safer' environment usually results in a big loss for shareholders. Investors do best if they stick to a plan, weather market downturns with conservative, risk-adjusted asset allocations, and remain invested through the turnaround when the biggest gains materialize.

Economic Definitions GDP is the ultimate market value of all goods and services made in a nation. It is the most used economic indicator. GDP by expenditure method measures total final expenditures at purchasers' prices excluding exports minus imports. This assumes inflation.

Index Definitions S&P 500:

The S&P 500 (r) is the best single indicator of large-cap U.S. equities and the basis of an enormous range of investment products. It includes 500 major companies and represents about 80% of market capitalization.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index measures the investment-grade US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. It contains Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS, and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

The investment is like gardening. As a gardener would plant, tend and prune his plants, so must an investor take care of his investments. You need patience, diligence & a long term vision. As a gardener might face drought, pests or extreme weather, investors face market volatility, inflation, and economic downturns. But with planning, diversification, and periodic adjustments both gardeners and investors can reap great rewards. Time and effort pays off in a satisfying harvest.

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Sources:

1. Fidelity Investments. 'Fidelity 2025 Retirement Savings Assessment.' Fidelity.com, 2025, fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/state-of-retirement .

2. Fidelity Investments. 'Market Volatility Resources and Insights.' Fidelity Institutional, institutional.fidelity.com .

3. J.P. Morgan Asset Management. '2026 Market Outlook: Navigating Global Uncertainty.' J.P. Morgan, Jan. 2026, jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook .

4. Vanguard. 'How America Saves 2025: Vanguard Defined Contribution Plan Data.' Vanguard.com, 2025, institutional.vanguard.com .

5. DALBAR, Inc. 'Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior 2025.' DALBAR.com, 2025, dalbar.com .