What's triggering tech sector volatility? Throughout 2025, businesses across the U.S., like Macy's, navigated a market environment shaped by the Federal Reserve's gradual interest rate reductions and surging AI-driven investment. But in early 2026, the rapid deployment of AI agents began disrupting traditional software business models at a pace that caught many investors off guard. Companies that had built high-growth recurring-revenue software businesses saw their valuations slashed as AI tools threatened to automate entire categories of knowledge work. At the same time, the extraordinary concentration of the S&P 500 in a handful of mega-cap technology names amplified the volatility. The Magnificent Seven - Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla - now account for approximately 35% of the S&P 500 by market capitalization, meaning their performance has an outsized influence on index returns. When sentiment shifted in early 2026, the resulting sector rotation - out of high-growth software and into defensive names, energy, and value stocks - moved quickly.

The downside of domination
Stocks tracked by the S&P Information Technology Sector Index experienced sharp divergence in Q1 2026, with software and SaaS names hit hardest while AI infrastructure names outperformed. Plus, like many benchmark indexes, the S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization (the value of a company's outstanding shares). This gives the largest companies, most of which are in the tech sector, an outsized role in index performance. As of May 31, the information technology sector now accounts for approximately 31% of the market cap of the S&P 500 - up significantly from years prior - compared with weightings of roughly 13% for financials and 12% for healthcare, the next-largest sectors. Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft are among the three most-valuable companies in the index, with the full Magnificent Seven (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla) collectively representing approximately 35% of the entire index. ⁷

For the past several years, tech stock gains drove the market to new heights, but when their share values began to plunge, they dragged the broader stock indexes down with them. Research shows that the Magnificent Seven were responsible for approximately 42% of the S&P 500's total annual return in 2025 - a level of concentration that makes the broader index highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment toward any of these companies. ⁸

These well-known technology companies have grown into massive multinational businesses that have a major influence on everyday life. Some dominate their respective business spaces — social media, smartphones, online search and advertising, e-commerce, and cloud computing — enough to spark antitrust investigations and calls for stricter regulations in the United States and abroad. They also have plenty of cash on hand, which means they may be in better shape to withstand an economic slowdown than their smaller competitors. ⁹

Takeaways for investors
Spreading investments among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 is a common way to diversify stock holdings. But over time, a stock portfolio that was once diversified can become overconcentrated in a sector that has outperformed the broader market. Tech-sector stocks delivered strong total returns during 2023 through 2025, with AI-driven names generating outsized gains, so Macy's employees and retirees may want to look closely at the composition of their portfolio and consider rebalancing if they find themselves overexposed to this highly volatile sector. (Rebalancing involves selling some investments in order to buy others. Keep in mind that selling investments in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.)  ¹⁰

If you feel shell-shocked after the recent market turbulence, we suggest our clients from Macy's try to regain some perspective. Some market analysts view recent price declines as a painful but long overdue repricing of stocks with valuations that had grown excessive, as well as a reality check brought on by waning growth expectations. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of companies in the S&P 500 reached approximately 22.5x heading into 2026 - approaching historical highs - before the Q1 2026 correction brought it modestly lower. ^11-12

It could be a while before investors can better assess how the economy and corporate profits will ultimately fare against AI-driven structural shifts and sector rotation pressures — and the stock market is no fan of uncertainty. Disappointing economic data and company earnings reports could continue to spark volatility in the coming months. 

It may not be easy to take troubling headlines in stride, but if you have a sufficiently diversified, all-weather investment strategy, sticking to it is often the wisest course of action. If you panic and flee the market during a downturn, you won't be in a position to benefit from upward swings on its better days. And if you continue investing regularly for a long-term goal such as retirement, a down market may be an opportunity to buy more shares at lower prices.

The return and principal value of stocks fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investments seeking a higher return tend to involve greater risk. Diversification is a method we suggest to our clients from Macy's; it's used to help manage risk, but it's also important that Macy's employees note that it doesn't guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged group of securities that is considered representative of the U.S. Stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. Dollar-cost averaging does not ensure a profit or prevent a loss. Such plans involve continuous investments in securities regardless of fluctuating prices. Macy's employees and retirees should consider their financial ability to continue making purchases during periods of low and high price levels. However, this can be an effective way for investors to accumulate shares to help meet long-term goals.

1) SIFMA, 2022
2) Yahoo! Finance, 2022
3) The New York Times, May 31, 2022
4, 7, 10-11) S&P Dow Jones Indices, 2022
5) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
6) Federal Reserve, 2022
8) The Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2022
9) The New York Times, May 20, 2022
12) FactSet, 2022

 

That same shift from growing assets to drawing them down applies directly to the pension decisions in front of you at Macy's. Macy's maintains an active defined benefit pension plan, meaning eligible employees continue to accrue benefits based on years of service and compensation. If you are eligible for a lump sum payout, IRS Section 417(e) segment rates determine how the future annuity stream converts to a present-value payment - rising rates compress the lump sum, so monitoring the plan's stability period and lookback month is critical before you lock in your election date. The choice between a single-life annuity, a joint-and-survivor option, or a lump sum (where available) is generally irrevocable once made, and timing that decision relative to interest rate conditions can meaningfully affect your retirement income picture.

On the healthcare side, Macy's does not offer continued medical coverage to retirees, which means coverage through the company ends when employment does. Planning for the cost of health insurance during any gap between your retirement date and Medicare eligibility at age 65 is a critical step - marketplace coverage, COBRA continuation, or a spouse's employer plan are common options. Building an accurate estimate of bridge-coverage costs into your retirement income projection prevents underestimating one of the largest variable expenses retirees face. Connecting your specific Macy's benefits situation to a comprehensive retirement income plan - and understanding how each component interacts - gives you the most complete picture of what retirement will look like.