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Understanding the Impact of High Inflation: Insights for Unisys Corporation Employees and Retirees

In March 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the most common measure of inflation, rose at an annual rate of 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981. ¹ It's not surprising that a Gallup poll at the end of March found that one out of six Americans considers inflation to be the most important problem facing the United States. ²

When inflation began rising in the spring of 2021, many economists, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, believed the increase would be transitory and subside over a period of months. One year later, inflation has proven to be more stubborn than expected. It may be helpful for Unisys Corporation employees and retirees to look at some of the forces behind rising prices, the Fed's plan to combat them, and early signs that inflation may be easing.

Hot Economy Meets Russia and China
The fundamental cause of rising inflation continues to be the growing pains of a rapidly opening economy — a combination of pent-up consumer demand, supply-chain slowdowns, and not enough workers to fill open jobs. Loose Federal Reserve monetary policies and billions of dollars in government stimulus helped prevent a deeper recession but added fuel to the fire when the economy reopened.

More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has placed upward pressure on already high global fuel and food prices. ³ At the same time, a COVID resurgence in China led to strict lockdowns that have closed factories and tightened already struggling supply chains for Chinese goods. The volume of cargo handled by the port of Shanghai, the world's busiest port, dropped by an estimated 40% in early April. ⁴

Behind the Headlines
Although the 8.5% year-over-year 'headline' inflation in March is a daunting number for our Unisys Corporation clients to consider, monthly numbers provide a clearer picture of the current trend. The month-over-month increase of 1.2% was extremely high, but more than half of it was due to gasoline prices, which rose 18.3% in March alone. ⁵ Despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased seasonal demand, U.S. gas prices dropped in April, but the trend was moving upward by the end of the month. ⁶ The federal government's decision to release one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months and allow summer sales of higher-ethanol gasoline may help moderate prices. ⁷

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.5% year-over-year in March, the highest rate since 1982. However, it's important that our Unisys Corporation clients consider that the month-over-month increase from February to March was just 0.3%, the slowest pace in six months. Another positive sign was the price of used cars and trucks, which rose more than 35% over the last 12 months (a prime driver of general inflation) but dropped 3.8% in March. ⁸

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Wages and Consumer Demand
In March, average hourly earnings increased by 5.6% — but not enough to keep up with inflation and blunt the effects that impacted a variety of businesses, as well as many Unisys Corporation employees and retirees around the country. Lower-paid service workers received higher increases, with wages jumping by almost 15% for non-management employees in the leisure and hospitality industry. Although inflation has cut deeply into wage gains over the last year, wages have increased at about the same rate as inflation over the two-year period of the pandemic. ⁹

One of the big questions going forward is whether rising wages will enable consumers to continue to pay higher prices, which can lead to an inflationary spiral of ever-increasing wages and prices. Recent signals are mixed. The official measure of consumer spending increased 1.1% in March, but an early April poll found that two out of three Americans had cut back on spending due to inflation. ^10-11

Soft or Hard Landing?
The current inflationary situation has raised many questions among our Unisys Corporation clients in regard to what the solution is. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has laid out a plan to fight inflation by raising interest rates and tightening the money supply. After dropping the benchmark federal funds rate to near zero in order to stimulate the economy at the onset of the pandemic, the FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% at its March 2022 meeting and projected the equivalent of six more quarter-percent increases by the end of the year and three or four more in 2024. ¹² This would bring the rate to around 2.75%, just above what the FOMC considers a 'neutral rate' that will neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. ¹³

These moves were projected to bring the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, down to 4.3% by the end of 2022, 2.7% by the end of 2023, and 2.3% by the end of 2024. ¹⁴ PCE inflation — which was 6.6% in March — tends to run below CPI, so even if the Fed achieves these goals, CPI inflation will likely remain somewhat higher. ¹⁵

Fed policymakers have signaled a willingness to be more aggressive, if necessary, and the FOMC raised the fund's rate by 0.5% at its May meeting, as opposed to the more common 0.25% increase. This was the first half-percent increase since May 2000, and there may be more to come. The FOMC also began reducing the Fed's bond holdings to tighten the money supply. New projections to be released in June will provide an updated picture of the Fed's intentions for the federal funds rate. ¹⁶

The question facing the FOMC is how fast it can raise interest rates and tighten the money supply while maintaining optimal employment and economic growth. The ideal is a 'soft landing,' similar to what occurred in the 1990s, when inflation was tamed without damaging the economy. At the other extreme is the 'hard landing' of the early 1980s, when the Fed raised the fund's rate to almost 20% in order to control runaway double-digit inflation, throwing the economy into a recession. ¹⁸

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that a soft landing will be difficult to achieve, but he believes the strong job market may help the economy withstand aggressive monetary policies. Supply chains are expected to improve over time, and workers who have not yet returned to the labor force might fill open jobs without increasing wage and price pressures. ¹⁹

The next few months will be a key period to reveal the future direction of inflation and monetary policy, and we recommend that Unisys Corporation employees and retirees keep this topic in mind. The hope is that March represented the peak and inflation will begin to trend downward. But even if that proves to be true, it could be a painfully slow descent.

We'd like to remind our clients from Unisys Corporation that projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1, 5, 8-9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
2) Gallup, March 29, 2022
3, 7) The New York Times, April 12, 2022
4) CNBC, April 7, 2022
6) AAA, April 25 & 29, 2022
10, 15) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
11) CBS News, April 11, 2022
12, 14, 16) Federal Reserve, 2022
13, 17) The Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2022
18) The New York Times, March 21, 2022

What specific retirement options are available to employees of Unisys, and how do these options vary in terms of financial benefits, including considerations for early retirement vs. normal retirement age? In the context of the Unisys Pension Plan, what implications do these options have on long-term financial planning for employees at Unisys?

Retirement Options at Unisys: The Unisys Pension Plan provides options for normal, early, and unreduced retirement. Normal retirement is at age 65, and early retirement is available between ages 55 and 65, though benefits may be reduced for early retirement. Employees with at least 20 years of vesting service can retire without reductions from age 62. These options influence long-term financial planning as choosing early retirement may result in reduced benefits due to longer payout periods(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

How are pay credits calculated under the Unisys Pension Plan, and what factors might influence an employee's monthly pay credit pertaining to their Retirement Accumulation Account? Moreover, what are the potential impacts on retirement benefits if employees experience changes in their eligible pay during employment at Unisys?

Pay Credits Calculation: Pay credits under the Unisys Pension Plan were calculated at 4% of an employee’s eligible monthly pay from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2006. Interest credits continue to accrue after this period until benefits are distributed. Changes in an employee’s eligible pay during employment will affect the total pay credits, thus impacting their retirement accumulation account(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

Can you explain the differences between credited service, eligibility service, and vesting service as defined by Unisys? What importance do these distinctions have on an employee's ability to access their retirement benefits, and how does each type of service contribute to the overall calculation of an employee's pension under the Unisys plan?

Service Types at Unisys: Credited service refers to the period used to calculate pension benefits, vesting service determines eligibility for receiving benefits, and eligibility service is the time required to become a participant in the plan. These distinctions are critical because credited service directly affects the benefit calculation, while vesting and eligibility service ensure employees qualify for benefits(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

What steps must Unisys employees take to initiate their pension benefits, and what specific information will they need to provide during the application process to ensure a smooth transition into retirement? Additionally, how does Unisys support employees in navigating this process, and what potential delays should employees be aware of?

Initiating Pension Benefits: To initiate pension benefits, employees must contact the Unisys Benefits Service Center and apply for their benefits. They must provide personal and employment details, including retirement age and chosen payout method (lump sum or annuity). Unisys supports employees through this process via their benefits service center, but delays can occur due to incomplete information or processing times(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

In what ways does the Unisys Pension Plan ensure protection for employees' benefits under federal law, particularly through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)? How does this insurance work in practice, and what types of benefits are specifically covered or not covered by the PBGC for Unisys employees?

PBGC Insurance: Unisys Pension Plan benefits are protected under the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), ensuring employees receive guaranteed benefits even if the plan is terminated. However, certain benefits, such as non-qualified plans or supplemental executive retirement plans, may not be covered under PBGC(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

How might changes or amendments to the Unisys Pension Plan affect existing and future employees? In particular, what provisions does Unisys have in place to communicate significant changes in the plan to its employees, and what rights do employees have under ERISA if they disagree with these changes?

Impact of Plan Amendments: Any amendments to the Unisys Pension Plan could affect both existing and future employees. Unisys communicates significant changes through written notifications. Employees have rights under ERISA, including the right to challenge plan changes if they disagree with amendments that negatively affect their benefits(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

What considerations should employees of Unisys keep in mind regarding their benefits if they are nearing retirement age? Additionally, how can employees effectively prepare for potential changes to their health or work circumstances that could impact their retirement planning, given the options provided by Unisys?

Retirement Preparation: Employees nearing retirement should consider the timing of benefit elections, such as early or normal retirement. Preparing for potential health changes or shifts in work circumstances is essential, as these factors may alter retirement needs and benefit choices under the Unisys Pension Plan(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

What are the options available for Unisys employees who wish to designate beneficiaries for their retirement benefits, and how do these designations affect benefit distributions? Specifically, what criteria must be met for naming a contingent annuitant, and what restrictions might apply under the Unisys plan?

Beneficiary Designation: Unisys employees can designate beneficiaries for their retirement benefits. If a spouse is not the beneficiary, spousal consent may be required. A contingent annuitant can also be designated under certain restrictions, affecting the distribution of retirement benefits based on Unisys’ rules(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

How does the Unisys Benefits Service Center operate, and what resources are available for employees seeking information about their pension plans or retirement benefits? What are the best practices for contacting the Unisys Benefits Service Center to ensure that employees receive timely and accurate answers to their inquiries?

Unisys Benefits Service Center: The Unisys Benefits Service Center provides employees with resources for pension inquiries and applications. Best practices for contacting them include preparing all necessary personal and employment details to ensure timely and accurate responses(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).

What are the most important elements of the Unisys Pension Plan that employees should review before retirement, and how can employees leverage the information provided in the summary plan description to optimize their retirement income? What role does employee education play in enhancing knowledge about these elements and ensuring informed decision-making about retirement benefits at Unisys?

Critical Pension Plan Elements: Employees should review their Retirement Accumulation Account, service years, and payout options before retirement. The summary plan description is a valuable resource for understanding how to maximize retirement income, and Unisys offers educational tools to help employees make informed decisions(Unisys_Corporation_Summ…).