New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Understanding the Impact of High Inflation: Insights for U.S. Bancorp Employees and Retirees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for U.S. Bancorp U.S. Bancorp, the parent company of U.S. Bank, primarily partners with UnitedHealthcare for its corporate health insurance offerings. This relationship allows U.S. Bancorp to provide a range of health benefits to its employees through UnitedHealthcare's extensive network and services. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, U.S. Bancorp may face substantial healthcare cost increases, influenced predominantly by rising insurance premiums driven by multiple factors. Record hikes in premiums are anticipated as federal subsidies from the Affordable Care Act expire, which could result in over 22 million enrollees experiencing steep out-of-pocket expenses. With major insurers like UnitedHealthcare requesting rate increases upward of 66% in certain markets, U.S. Bancorp's healthcare costs could rise significantly, compelling both the company and its employees to navigate a more expensive healthcare landscape. This situation highlights the urgent need for strategic planning to mitigate the financial impact on employees and the company's overall benefits strategy. Click here to learn more

In March 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the most common measure of inflation, rose at an annual rate of 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981. ¹ It's not surprising that a Gallup poll at the end of March found that one out of six Americans considers inflation to be the most important problem facing the United States. ²

When inflation began rising in the spring of 2021, many economists, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, believed the increase would be transitory and subside over a period of months. One year later, inflation has proven to be more stubborn than expected. It may be helpful for U.S. Bancorp employees and retirees to look at some of the forces behind rising prices, the Fed's plan to combat them, and early signs that inflation may be easing.

Hot Economy Meets Russia and China
The fundamental cause of rising inflation continues to be the growing pains of a rapidly opening economy — a combination of pent-up consumer demand, supply-chain slowdowns, and not enough workers to fill open jobs. Loose Federal Reserve monetary policies and billions of dollars in government stimulus helped prevent a deeper recession but added fuel to the fire when the economy reopened.

More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has placed upward pressure on already high global fuel and food prices. ³ At the same time, a COVID resurgence in China led to strict lockdowns that have closed factories and tightened already struggling supply chains for Chinese goods. The volume of cargo handled by the port of Shanghai, the world's busiest port, dropped by an estimated 40% in early April. ⁴

Behind the Headlines
Although the 8.5% year-over-year 'headline' inflation in March is a daunting number for our U.S. Bancorp clients to consider, monthly numbers provide a clearer picture of the current trend. The month-over-month increase of 1.2% was extremely high, but more than half of it was due to gasoline prices, which rose 18.3% in March alone. ⁵ Despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased seasonal demand, U.S. gas prices dropped in April, but the trend was moving upward by the end of the month. ⁶ The federal government's decision to release one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months and allow summer sales of higher-ethanol gasoline may help moderate prices. ⁷

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.5% year-over-year in March, the highest rate since 1982. However, it's important that our U.S. Bancorp clients consider that the month-over-month increase from February to March was just 0.3%, the slowest pace in six months. Another positive sign was the price of used cars and trucks, which rose more than 35% over the last 12 months (a prime driver of general inflation) but dropped 3.8% in March. ⁸

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Wages and Consumer Demand
In March, average hourly earnings increased by 5.6% — but not enough to keep up with inflation and blunt the effects that impacted a variety of businesses, as well as many U.S. Bancorp employees and retirees around the country. Lower-paid service workers received higher increases, with wages jumping by almost 15% for non-management employees in the leisure and hospitality industry. Although inflation has cut deeply into wage gains over the last year, wages have increased at about the same rate as inflation over the two-year period of the pandemic. ⁹

One of the big questions going forward is whether rising wages will enable consumers to continue to pay higher prices, which can lead to an inflationary spiral of ever-increasing wages and prices. Recent signals are mixed. The official measure of consumer spending increased 1.1% in March, but an early April poll found that two out of three Americans had cut back on spending due to inflation. ^10-11

Soft or Hard Landing?
The current inflationary situation has raised many questions among our U.S. Bancorp clients in regard to what the solution is. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has laid out a plan to fight inflation by raising interest rates and tightening the money supply. After dropping the benchmark federal funds rate to near zero in order to stimulate the economy at the onset of the pandemic, the FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% at its March 2022 meeting and projected the equivalent of six more quarter-percent increases by the end of the year and three or four more in 2024. ¹² This would bring the rate to around 2.75%, just above what the FOMC considers a 'neutral rate' that will neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. ¹³

These moves were projected to bring the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, down to 4.3% by the end of 2022, 2.7% by the end of 2023, and 2.3% by the end of 2024. ¹⁴ PCE inflation — which was 6.6% in March — tends to run below CPI, so even if the Fed achieves these goals, CPI inflation will likely remain somewhat higher. ¹⁵

Fed policymakers have signaled a willingness to be more aggressive, if necessary, and the FOMC raised the fund's rate by 0.5% at its May meeting, as opposed to the more common 0.25% increase. This was the first half-percent increase since May 2000, and there may be more to come. The FOMC also began reducing the Fed's bond holdings to tighten the money supply. New projections to be released in June will provide an updated picture of the Fed's intentions for the federal funds rate. ¹⁶

The question facing the FOMC is how fast it can raise interest rates and tighten the money supply while maintaining optimal employment and economic growth. The ideal is a 'soft landing,' similar to what occurred in the 1990s, when inflation was tamed without damaging the economy. At the other extreme is the 'hard landing' of the early 1980s, when the Fed raised the fund's rate to almost 20% in order to control runaway double-digit inflation, throwing the economy into a recession. ¹⁸

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that a soft landing will be difficult to achieve, but he believes the strong job market may help the economy withstand aggressive monetary policies. Supply chains are expected to improve over time, and workers who have not yet returned to the labor force might fill open jobs without increasing wage and price pressures. ¹⁹

The next few months will be a key period to reveal the future direction of inflation and monetary policy, and we recommend that U.S. Bancorp employees and retirees keep this topic in mind. The hope is that March represented the peak and inflation will begin to trend downward. But even if that proves to be true, it could be a painfully slow descent.

We'd like to remind our clients from U.S. Bancorp that projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1, 5, 8-9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
2) Gallup, March 29, 2022
3, 7) The New York Times, April 12, 2022
4) CNBC, April 7, 2022
6) AAA, April 25 & 29, 2022
10, 15) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
11) CBS News, April 11, 2022
12, 14, 16) Federal Reserve, 2022
13, 17) The Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2022
18) The New York Times, March 21, 2022

How does the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan calculate the Final Average Total Pay and Final Average Base Pay for employees, and what implications might these calculations have for retirement planning? What factors should employees at U.S. Bank consider when planning for their eventual retirement based on their pay history?

The U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan calculates Final Average Total Pay by taking the average of an employee's Total Pension Pay for the five consecutive calendar years during the last ten years of employment that provide the highest average. Similarly, Final Average Base Pay is calculated by averaging the Base Pension Pay for the same five-year period. Total Pension Pay includes base pay plus commissions, bonuses, and overtime, while Base Pension Pay only includes base salary and a few other components such as shift differentials and premium pay. These calculations significantly affect retirement planning, as higher pay during the last years of employment can lead to a more substantial pension benefit(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What steps does U.S. Bank require for employees who wish to commence their pension benefits, and how does the timing of this commencement affect the benefits they will ultimately receive? Employees at U.S. Bank should understand the critical timelines associated with the retirement process, including the importance of initiating their requests within specific timeframes.

Employees who wish to commence their pension benefits must initiate the process at least 30 to 90 days before their intended benefit commencement date. The timing affects the benefits, as early retirement (before age 65) results in reduced monthly benefits due to the extended period over which benefits are paid. Conversely, delaying the commencement of benefits until the full retirement age (65) or later ensures the maximum monthly pension benefit(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What are the different forms of payment options available under the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and how might these options change based on the employeeâ€™s age and years of service? U.S. Bank employees need clarity on how to choose the best payment option to meet their individual needs in retirement.

The Plan offers several payment options, including a single life annuity, joint and survivor annuities (50%, 75%, or 100%), and estate protection annuities. These options can vary based on the employee's age and years of service. For example, younger employees may have a reduced monthly benefit if they choose early retirement, while older employees nearing or beyond age 65 will receive full benefits without reduction. The employee's choice of annuity type also affects the monthly payout and survivor benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How does U.S. Bank ensure the security of employees' pension plan information and personal benefits data, and what measures should employees take to protect their information? Employees should be informed about the companyâ€™s security protocols and best practices for safeguarding sensitive information related to their pension.

U.S. Bank implements several security measures, including encouraging employees to use strong, unique passwords for accessing benefit information and enabling multifactor authentication. Employees should also regularly monitor their account for unauthorized transactions, update contact information to receive notices, and use secure networks when accessing their pension plan data(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

In the event that an employee at U.S. Bank undergoes reemployment after retirement, how does this impact their pension benefits and what should they be aware of regarding benefit accrual? Employees need guidance on how transitioning back to work could affect their pension plans and retirement strategies.

If a retired U.S. Bank employee is rehired, their pension payments continue as usual. However, they will not accrue any additional benefits under the Legacy Pension Plan but may be eligible for participation in the Legacy 2010 Cash Balance Portion of the Plan. It is essential for rehired employees to understand the implications on their pension accrual and benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What are the eligibility requirements for participation in the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and how do changes in employment status affect an employee's pension benefits? U.S. Bank staff should have a comprehensive understanding of eligibility criteria and how various employment changes can impact their pension rights.

Eligibility is limited to employees who had earned a benefit before January 1, 2020, or those rehired in an eligible position. Employment status changes, such as termination or reemployment, can affect whether an employee remains in the Plan. For example, employees rehired after January 1, 2020, may not accrue additional benefits under the Legacy Pension Plan(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What specific rights do U.S. Bank employees have under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) in relation to their pension plan benefits, and how can they enforce these rights? U.S. Bank employees must be made aware of their legal rights to access plan information and contest any disputes regarding their benefits.

Employees have rights under ERISA to access plan information, file claims, and appeal denied claims. U.S. Bank employees can enforce these rights by submitting claims or appealing denials through the Plan's claims and appeals procedures. Additionally, employees may bring legal action if they exhaust the Plan's internal processes(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How does U.S. Bancorp ensure that its pension plan complies with current IRS limits, and what should employees know about potential tax implications on their pension benefits? Clear communication from U.S. Bank regarding tax consequences and IRS guidelines for retirement benefits is crucial for employees to manage their finances effectively post-retirement.

The Plan adheres to IRS regulations, including limits on annual earnings ($330,000 in 2023) that can be considered for pension benefit calculations. Employees should understand the potential tax implications on their pension distributions and are encouraged to consult tax advisors to ensure proper tax handling(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What processes are in place for U.S. Bank employees to file claims or appeals if they believe they are entitled to additional benefits under the pension plan? Employees at U.S. Bank should be informed about the claims process and know their options for seeking justice if their claims are disputed.

Employees can file claims or appeals by contacting U.S. Bank Employee Services or accessing the Plan’s claims procedures. Deadlines apply, and employees must submit claims within the specified time limits to avoid losing their rights to additional benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How can U.S. Bank employees contact the company for further assistance regarding the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and what resources are available to them through the Employee Services division? Itâ€™s essential that U.S. Bank staff knows how to reach out for support regarding their retirement benefits and understands the services provided to help them navigate their pension plans.

Employees can contact U.S. Bank Employee Services by calling 800-806-7009 and selecting "Savings and retirement." Additionally, the Your Total Rewards website provides 24/7 access to pension information and support. Employees are encouraged to use these resources for assistance with their pension plan(US Bancorp_January 2023…).