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Understanding the Impact of High Inflation: Insights for USG Corporation Employees and Retirees

In March 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the most common measure of inflation, rose at an annual rate of 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981. ¹ It's not surprising that a Gallup poll at the end of March found that one out of six Americans considers inflation to be the most important problem facing the United States. ²

When inflation began rising in the spring of 2021, many economists, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, believed the increase would be transitory and subside over a period of months. One year later, inflation has proven to be more stubborn than expected. It may be helpful for USG Corporation employees and retirees to look at some of the forces behind rising prices, the Fed's plan to combat them, and early signs that inflation may be easing.

Hot Economy Meets Russia and China
The fundamental cause of rising inflation continues to be the growing pains of a rapidly opening economy — a combination of pent-up consumer demand, supply-chain slowdowns, and not enough workers to fill open jobs. Loose Federal Reserve monetary policies and billions of dollars in government stimulus helped prevent a deeper recession but added fuel to the fire when the economy reopened.

More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has placed upward pressure on already high global fuel and food prices. ³ At the same time, a COVID resurgence in China led to strict lockdowns that have closed factories and tightened already struggling supply chains for Chinese goods. The volume of cargo handled by the port of Shanghai, the world's busiest port, dropped by an estimated 40% in early April. ⁴

Behind the Headlines
Although the 8.5% year-over-year 'headline' inflation in March is a daunting number for our USG Corporation clients to consider, monthly numbers provide a clearer picture of the current trend. The month-over-month increase of 1.2% was extremely high, but more than half of it was due to gasoline prices, which rose 18.3% in March alone. ⁵ Despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased seasonal demand, U.S. gas prices dropped in April, but the trend was moving upward by the end of the month. ⁶ The federal government's decision to release one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months and allow summer sales of higher-ethanol gasoline may help moderate prices. ⁷

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.5% year-over-year in March, the highest rate since 1982. However, it's important that our USG Corporation clients consider that the month-over-month increase from February to March was just 0.3%, the slowest pace in six months. Another positive sign was the price of used cars and trucks, which rose more than 35% over the last 12 months (a prime driver of general inflation) but dropped 3.8% in March. ⁸

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Wages and Consumer Demand
In March, average hourly earnings increased by 5.6% — but not enough to keep up with inflation and blunt the effects that impacted a variety of businesses, as well as many USG Corporation employees and retirees around the country. Lower-paid service workers received higher increases, with wages jumping by almost 15% for non-management employees in the leisure and hospitality industry. Although inflation has cut deeply into wage gains over the last year, wages have increased at about the same rate as inflation over the two-year period of the pandemic. ⁹

One of the big questions going forward is whether rising wages will enable consumers to continue to pay higher prices, which can lead to an inflationary spiral of ever-increasing wages and prices. Recent signals are mixed. The official measure of consumer spending increased 1.1% in March, but an early April poll found that two out of three Americans had cut back on spending due to inflation. ^10-11

Soft or Hard Landing?
The current inflationary situation has raised many questions among our USG Corporation clients in regard to what the solution is. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has laid out a plan to fight inflation by raising interest rates and tightening the money supply. After dropping the benchmark federal funds rate to near zero in order to stimulate the economy at the onset of the pandemic, the FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% at its March 2022 meeting and projected the equivalent of six more quarter-percent increases by the end of the year and three or four more in 2024. ¹² This would bring the rate to around 2.75%, just above what the FOMC considers a 'neutral rate' that will neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. ¹³

These moves were projected to bring the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, down to 4.3% by the end of 2022, 2.7% by the end of 2023, and 2.3% by the end of 2024. ¹⁴ PCE inflation — which was 6.6% in March — tends to run below CPI, so even if the Fed achieves these goals, CPI inflation will likely remain somewhat higher. ¹⁵

Fed policymakers have signaled a willingness to be more aggressive, if necessary, and the FOMC raised the fund's rate by 0.5% at its May meeting, as opposed to the more common 0.25% increase. This was the first half-percent increase since May 2000, and there may be more to come. The FOMC also began reducing the Fed's bond holdings to tighten the money supply. New projections to be released in June will provide an updated picture of the Fed's intentions for the federal funds rate. ¹⁶

The question facing the FOMC is how fast it can raise interest rates and tighten the money supply while maintaining optimal employment and economic growth. The ideal is a 'soft landing,' similar to what occurred in the 1990s, when inflation was tamed without damaging the economy. At the other extreme is the 'hard landing' of the early 1980s, when the Fed raised the fund's rate to almost 20% in order to control runaway double-digit inflation, throwing the economy into a recession. ¹⁸

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that a soft landing will be difficult to achieve, but he believes the strong job market may help the economy withstand aggressive monetary policies. Supply chains are expected to improve over time, and workers who have not yet returned to the labor force might fill open jobs without increasing wage and price pressures. ¹⁹

The next few months will be a key period to reveal the future direction of inflation and monetary policy, and we recommend that USG Corporation employees and retirees keep this topic in mind. The hope is that March represented the peak and inflation will begin to trend downward. But even if that proves to be true, it could be a painfully slow descent.

We'd like to remind our clients from USG Corporation that projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1, 5, 8-9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
2) Gallup, March 29, 2022
3, 7) The New York Times, April 12, 2022
4) CNBC, April 7, 2022
6) AAA, April 25 & 29, 2022
10, 15) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
11) CBS News, April 11, 2022
12, 14, 16) Federal Reserve, 2022
13, 17) The Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2022
18) The New York Times, March 21, 2022

How does the retirement plan structure at USG Corporation impact both final average earnings participants and cash balance participants, especially regarding their eligibility and benefits accrued over time? In what ways does the differentiation between these two categories influence the retirement outcomes for employees of USG Corporation?

Retirement Plan Structure: USG Corporation's retirement plan differentiates between Final Average Earnings Participants and Cash Balance Participants. Final Average Earnings participants, who joined before January 1, 2011, accrue benefits based on their final average earnings and years of service, which can result in higher benefits for longer-serving employees. Cash Balance participants, who joined after January 1, 2011, have their benefits calculated based on a cash balance account, which grows with contributions and interest credits. These differences affect retirement outcomes, as Final Average Earnings participants may see higher pension payments if they have longer service or higher wages, while Cash Balance participants have more predictable but potentially lower benefits based on their account balance(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

USG Corporation's Retirement Plan allows for different age-specific rules regarding early retirement. How do the "Rule of 90" and "Rule of 82" affect the financial planning of employees considering an early retirement option, and what should they consider regarding their long-term financial security?

Rule of 90 and Rule of 82: The "Rule of 90" allows employees to retire early without a reduction in benefits if their age plus years of service total 90, provided they retire at or after age 62. The "Rule of 82" permits early retirement with reduced benefits for those whose age and years of service total 82. Employees planning early retirement must consider these rules as they directly affect the amount of benefits they receive, making it important to assess how long-term financial security will be impacted, especially if they retire before age 62(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

Could you elaborate on the process through which employees at USG Corporation can change their beneficiaries within the retirement plan? What steps need to be taken, and what are the implications of these changes on the benefits received upon the participant's death?

Changing Beneficiaries: To change beneficiaries, USG Corporation employees must contact Your Benefits Resources™, where they can designate a primary and contingent beneficiary. If married, the spouse must provide notarized consent to name a different primary beneficiary. The process involves completing a form, and any changes affect who receives benefits upon the participant's death. Failing to update the beneficiary could result in benefits being paid to unintended individuals(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

As part of the retirement process at USG Corporation, how are pensionable earnings calculated? What factors are included in this determination, and how might they vary among different employees based on their roles within the organization?

Pensionable Earnings Calculation: Pensionable earnings at USG Corporation include regular pay, shift differentials, and bonuses but exclude items like nonqualified deferred compensation, severance, and stock awards. These earnings are used to calculate benefits based on formulas that take into account an employee’s service years and earnings over the 36 highest consecutive months of the last 15 years of participation(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How does the automatic enrollment in the USG Corporation Retirement Plan work, and what options do employees have if they initially chose not to participate? What implications might this have for their retirement savings strategy?

Automatic Enrollment and Opting In: Employees at USG Corporation are automatically enrolled in the retirement plan unless they choose to opt out. If employees decide not to participate initially, they can enroll later by contacting Your Benefits Resources™. Failure to participate from the start could result in lower retirement savings due to fewer years of contributions(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

In the context of USG Corporation, what are the potential tax consequences for employees withdrawing their retirement benefits, especially regarding the mandatory withholdings? How might employees effectively manage these tax liabilities when planning for retirement?

Tax Consequences of Withdrawals: Employees withdrawing their retirement benefits from USG Corporation will face mandatory federal income tax withholdings, typically 20% for lump sum distributions, unless the distribution is rolled over into an IRA. Employees must plan for these taxes when withdrawing to avoid unexpected liabilities and ensure they maximize their after-tax retirement income(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How do employees at USG Corporation access the necessary documents related to their retirement benefits, and what is the process for obtaining copies of these documents if needed? What are the responsibilities of the Plan Administrator in this process?

Accessing Retirement Documents: Employees can access documents related to their retirement benefits through Your Benefits Resources™ online or via phone. If additional copies are needed, employees can request them from the Plan Administrator for a small fee. The Plan Administrator oversees ensuring these documents are provided to participants as required by ERISA(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

What unique provisions exist for USG Corporation employees who experience a break in service? How do these provisions impact their accumulated benefit service and overall benefits upon reemployment?

Break in Service Provisions: USG Corporation allows employees who experience a break in service to retain their accumulated benefits if they are reemployed within one year. If reemployed after one year, their previous service may not count toward future benefits unless they were vested prior to termination. This can affect the total benefits an employee accrues if they leave and later return(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

What options do employees of USG Corporation have for managing their benefits if they return to work after retirement? How does this affect their pension benefits and the overall strategy for maximizing retirement income?

Returning to Work After Retirement: Employees returning to work after retirement at USG Corporation will have their pension payments suspended and recalculated based on additional years of service. This recalculation takes into account prior payments, meaning employees should consider the impact of returning to work on their long-term pension strategy(USG Corporation_Retirem…)(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How can employees of USG Corporation contact their Benefits Resourcesâ„¢ for more information on their retirement plan options? Are there specific channels preferred for different types of inquiries, and what resources are available to assist them?

Contacting Benefits Resources™: Employees can contact Your Benefits Resources™ via the web or a toll-free number to inquire about retirement plan options. Different inquiries, such as changes to beneficiaries or requesting benefit estimates, can be handled through these channels. Resources such as detailed benefit estimates are available to help employees plan for retirement(USG Corporation_Retirem…).