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Understanding the Impact of High Inflation: Insights for Windstream Holdings Employees and Retirees

In March 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the most common measure of inflation, rose at an annual rate of 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981. ¹ It's not surprising that a Gallup poll at the end of March found that one out of six Americans considers inflation to be the most important problem facing the United States. ²

When inflation began rising in the spring of 2021, many economists, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, believed the increase would be transitory and subside over a period of months. One year later, inflation has proven to be more stubborn than expected. It may be helpful for Windstream Holdings employees and retirees to look at some of the forces behind rising prices, the Fed's plan to combat them, and early signs that inflation may be easing.

Hot Economy Meets Russia and China
The fundamental cause of rising inflation continues to be the growing pains of a rapidly opening economy — a combination of pent-up consumer demand, supply-chain slowdowns, and not enough workers to fill open jobs. Loose Federal Reserve monetary policies and billions of dollars in government stimulus helped prevent a deeper recession but added fuel to the fire when the economy reopened.

More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has placed upward pressure on already high global fuel and food prices. ³ At the same time, a COVID resurgence in China led to strict lockdowns that have closed factories and tightened already struggling supply chains for Chinese goods. The volume of cargo handled by the port of Shanghai, the world's busiest port, dropped by an estimated 40% in early April. ⁴

Behind the Headlines
Although the 8.5% year-over-year 'headline' inflation in March is a daunting number for our Windstream Holdings clients to consider, monthly numbers provide a clearer picture of the current trend. The month-over-month increase of 1.2% was extremely high, but more than half of it was due to gasoline prices, which rose 18.3% in March alone. ⁵ Despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased seasonal demand, U.S. gas prices dropped in April, but the trend was moving upward by the end of the month. ⁶ The federal government's decision to release one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months and allow summer sales of higher-ethanol gasoline may help moderate prices. ⁷

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.5% year-over-year in March, the highest rate since 1982. However, it's important that our Windstream Holdings clients consider that the month-over-month increase from February to March was just 0.3%, the slowest pace in six months. Another positive sign was the price of used cars and trucks, which rose more than 35% over the last 12 months (a prime driver of general inflation) but dropped 3.8% in March. ⁸

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Wages and Consumer Demand
In March, average hourly earnings increased by 5.6% — but not enough to keep up with inflation and blunt the effects that impacted a variety of businesses, as well as many Windstream Holdings employees and retirees around the country. Lower-paid service workers received higher increases, with wages jumping by almost 15% for non-management employees in the leisure and hospitality industry. Although inflation has cut deeply into wage gains over the last year, wages have increased at about the same rate as inflation over the two-year period of the pandemic. ⁹

One of the big questions going forward is whether rising wages will enable consumers to continue to pay higher prices, which can lead to an inflationary spiral of ever-increasing wages and prices. Recent signals are mixed. The official measure of consumer spending increased 1.1% in March, but an early April poll found that two out of three Americans had cut back on spending due to inflation. ^10-11

Soft or Hard Landing?
The current inflationary situation has raised many questions among our Windstream Holdings clients in regard to what the solution is. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has laid out a plan to fight inflation by raising interest rates and tightening the money supply. After dropping the benchmark federal funds rate to near zero in order to stimulate the economy at the onset of the pandemic, the FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% at its March 2022 meeting and projected the equivalent of six more quarter-percent increases by the end of the year and three or four more in 2024. ¹² This would bring the rate to around 2.75%, just above what the FOMC considers a 'neutral rate' that will neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. ¹³

These moves were projected to bring the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, down to 4.3% by the end of 2022, 2.7% by the end of 2023, and 2.3% by the end of 2024. ¹⁴ PCE inflation — which was 6.6% in March — tends to run below CPI, so even if the Fed achieves these goals, CPI inflation will likely remain somewhat higher. ¹⁵

Fed policymakers have signaled a willingness to be more aggressive, if necessary, and the FOMC raised the fund's rate by 0.5% at its May meeting, as opposed to the more common 0.25% increase. This was the first half-percent increase since May 2000, and there may be more to come. The FOMC also began reducing the Fed's bond holdings to tighten the money supply. New projections to be released in June will provide an updated picture of the Fed's intentions for the federal funds rate. ¹⁶

The question facing the FOMC is how fast it can raise interest rates and tighten the money supply while maintaining optimal employment and economic growth. The ideal is a 'soft landing,' similar to what occurred in the 1990s, when inflation was tamed without damaging the economy. At the other extreme is the 'hard landing' of the early 1980s, when the Fed raised the fund's rate to almost 20% in order to control runaway double-digit inflation, throwing the economy into a recession. ¹⁸

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that a soft landing will be difficult to achieve, but he believes the strong job market may help the economy withstand aggressive monetary policies. Supply chains are expected to improve over time, and workers who have not yet returned to the labor force might fill open jobs without increasing wage and price pressures. ¹⁹

The next few months will be a key period to reveal the future direction of inflation and monetary policy, and we recommend that Windstream Holdings employees and retirees keep this topic in mind. The hope is that March represented the peak and inflation will begin to trend downward. But even if that proves to be true, it could be a painfully slow descent.

We'd like to remind our clients from Windstream Holdings that projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1, 5, 8-9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
2) Gallup, March 29, 2022
3, 7) The New York Times, April 12, 2022
4) CNBC, April 7, 2022
6) AAA, April 25 & 29, 2022
10, 15) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
11) CBS News, April 11, 2022
12, 14, 16) Federal Reserve, 2022
13, 17) The Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2022
18) The New York Times, March 21, 2022

What are the implications of the Windstream Pension Plan for employees who wish to retire early, specifically regarding the eligibility criteria and benefit calculations that will affect their financial planning? How does Windstream address concerns for employees who may be contemplating retirement before reaching the defined Normal Retirement Age of 65?

Early Retirement and Financial Planning: Employees may retire early at age 55 with 20 or more years of service, though the pension benefit will be reduced. The reduction is by 1/180th for the first 60 months and 1/360th for each of the next 60 months that commencement precedes the normal retirement date of age 65. This ensures early retirees can still receive benefits, though at a lower amount than if they had waited until age 65(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

In what ways does the Windstream Pension Plan protect the interests of employees during a potential plan termination? Specifically, how does the plan ensure that accrued benefits are preserved and what procedures are in place to inform employees about their rights under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA)?

Plan Termination Protections: In the event of plan termination, Windstream ensures all accrued pensions are fully vested. The plan assets will be used exclusively to meet accrued pension obligations before any surplus may revert to the company. Participants are also protected by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), which guarantees most pension benefits(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

How does Windstream determine the necessary contributions to the Pension Plan, and what role does an independent actuarial assessment play in this process? Additionally, how does this funding approach impact the overall financial stability of the Windstream Pension Plan and the benefits it promises to its participants?

Contribution Determination and Actuarial Role: Windstream’s contributions to the pension plan are determined by an independent actuary who evaluates the plan annually to recommend adjustments based on experience. This approach ensures that the plan remains financially stable and capable of meeting its promised benefits(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

What options are available to employees of Windstream regarding the forms of pension benefit payouts upon retirement, and how do these options like the Joint and Survivor Annuities differ in terms of financial implications for both the retiring employee and their spouse?

Benefit Payout Options: Windstream offers several pension payout options, including Joint and 100% Survivor Annuity, Joint and 50% Survivor Annuity, and a 10-Year Certain and Life Annuity. These options differ in terms of the benefit reduction applied to ensure payments continue for the life of the spouse, impacting both the retiree’s and the spouse’s financial planning(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

How should Windstream employees approach the process of claiming pension benefits, especially if their claims have been denied? What recourse is available for employees who are facing issues with their pension claim and wish to understand their rights and the appeal process?

Claiming Pension Benefits and Denied Claims: If an employee's pension claim is denied, they will receive a written notice explaining the reasons for the denial and the specific plan provisions involved. Employees may appeal the decision within 60 days, and the appeal process must be completed within 60 days of the request, with the right to file a civil lawsuit if necessary(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

Given the frozen status of the Windstream Pension Plan, what should employees understand about their service years and how these years contribute to their pension benefits? How does Windstream communicate these rules to ensure clarity among its employees?

Service Years and Frozen Status: Since the Windstream Pension Plan is frozen, no additional benefits accrue after December 31, 2007. However, employees continue to earn years of service, which count toward eligibility for early retirement and vesting. Windstream provides clear communication through its summary plan description and resources to ensure employees understand these rules(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

What strategies can Windstream employees employ to maximize their pension benefits and ensure they are making informed decisions about their retirement? How does Windstream support its employees in accessing the necessary resources and information to facilitate effective retirement planning?

Maximizing Pension Benefits: Employees are encouraged to consider their timing of retirement carefully, as delaying retirement closer to the normal retirement age of 65 reduces benefit reductions. Windstream supports retirement planning through its pension resources and access to Merrill Service Representatives who can assist with planning tools(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

How does Windstream ensure that employees are aware of their obligations under the plan regarding the filing of claims and maintaining updated personal information? What measures does the company take to keep communication channels open for any inquiries or updates employees might need?

Maintaining Updated Information: Windstream emphasizes the importance of keeping personal information up to date, including changes to contact information. Employees are responsible for filing claims in a timely manner, and failure to do so may result in delays or forfeiture of benefits(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

In the event of the death of a vested Windstream employee, what benefits are guaranteed to eligible spouses under the plan, and how do survivors initiate the process for claiming these benefits? What steps should surviving spouses take to ensure they receive the necessary support and information from Windstream?

Survivor Benefits and Claim Process: In the event of the death of a vested employee, the spouse is entitled to receive a pre-retirement survivor annuity, which may start on or after the employee’s earliest retirement age. The spouse must contact Windstream to initiate the claim process and may receive a lump sum if the benefit’s present value is below certain thresholds(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).

How can Windstream employees reach out to the companyâ€™s Benefits Committee or Plan Administrator for detailed inquiries about their pension benefits? What contact methods are available, and what information should employees prepare to facilitate effective communication regarding their pension inquiries? These questions will help employees navigate the complexities of the Windstream Pension Plan and ensure they are well-informed as they approach retirement.

Reaching the Benefits Committee: Windstream employees can contact the Benefits Committee or Plan Administrator at Windstream Services, LLC in Little Rock, Arkansas, or via the Merrill Service Center at 1-800-228-4015. Employees should have relevant information, such as personal and employment details, ready to facilitate efficient communication(Windstream_Pension_Plan…).