New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Is the U.S. Economy Facing a Recession? Insights for Avaya Holdings Employees and Retirees

Healthcare Provider Update: Avaya Holdings offers health insurance coverage to its U.S. employees through Aetna-administered plans. Benefits include medical, dental, vision, and life insurance, along with access to Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), disability coverage, and preventive care services. Avaya Holdings Healthcare costs in the United States are projected to continue rising through 2026, with insurers proposing significant premium increases for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans. A recent analysis found that ACA insurers are seeking a median premium increase of 15% for 2026, marking the largest hike since 2018. This surge is attributed to factors such as the anticipated expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, rising medical costsincluding expensive medications and increased hospital staysand a shift in the risk pool towards higher-cost enrollees. Without the renewal of enhanced subsidies, out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees could increase by more than 75% on average. Click here to learn more

The question of whether the U.S. economy is heading into a recession has become one of the most closely watched debates of 2026. GDP growth slowed sharply to just 0.7% annualized in Q4 2025, the weakest quarter in years, and the labor market shed 92,000 jobs in February 2026, missing expectations significantly. ¹ Major forecasting firms now place recession probabilities between 30% and 49%, driven by tariff-related uncertainty, softening consumer spending, and a rising unemployment rate. ² Yet no recession has been officially declared. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has made no such determination, and early estimates for Q1 2026 suggest some economic stabilization.

For employees and retirees, understanding how a recession is officially measured, what the current data signals, and what it may mean for long-term retirement planning has rarely been more relevant.

Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research. ³ Understanding the metrics for recessions and expansions is important context for employees and retirees evaluating their financial plans.

The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months. ⁴

To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the NBER committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two -- and patterns may be clear only in hindsight -- it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.

A Mixed Labor Market
The labor market -- long a pillar of economic strength -- sent its clearest warning signal yet in February 2026, when the U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs, the first meaningful monthly decline since the COVID recovery era. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from a multi-decade low of 3.4% reached in April 2023 and the highest reading since early 2022. ⁸

In the 13 recessions since World War II (including the brief 2020 COVID recession), the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points. ¹¹ The current rise from 3.4% to 4.4% -- a 1.0 percentage point increase over 33 months -- is notable, though it remains well below recessionary norms. That said, direction matters: a prolonged upward trend in unemployment without a corresponding economic recovery is a pattern worth monitoring closely.

Slowing GDP Growth
The common shorthand definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth -- a threshold that has not been met. However, growth has slowed dramatically: real GDP grew at just 0.7% annualized in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3 2025. ¹² GDPNow projects a partial rebound to approximately 1.9% for Q1 2026, but professional forecasters expect only 1.8% growth for the full year 2026 -- well below the long-run trend.

Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without the NBER declaring a recession -- though 2022 was an exception, as the NBER cited the unusually strong employment market. Whether 2026 requires a similar judgment call depends on how the data evolves over the coming months. ¹³

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The Tariff and Inflation Factor
The defining economic stress of 2026 is not a single shock but a combination of forces: tariff-driven cost increases, above-target inflation, and slowing growth. New tariffs represent the largest U.S. tax increase as a share of GDP since 1993, projecting an average household cost increase of approximately $1,500 per year and an additional 0.6% increase in consumer prices. ¹⁷ Business investment is projected to contract 6% due to trade policy uncertainty, and consumer spending growth is expected to slow to just 1.0% in 2026 -- a meaningful deceleration from recent years. ¹⁸ If that slowdown deepens, a recession becomes considerably more likely.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%--3.75% at its March 2026 meeting, balancing inflation running above target (headline CPI at 2.67% year-over-year, core PCE at 3.06%) against a slowing economy. ¹⁹ The Fed may cut rates once or twice in the second half of 2026 if economic conditions warrant -- but with inflation still above the 2% target, its options are constrained.

No one has a crystal ball, and recession probabilities from major forecasters range widely -- Goldman Sachs puts the odds at 30%, JP Morgan at 35%, and Moody's Analytics at 49%. ²⁰ The NBER has not declared a recession, and a soft landing remains possible, particularly if trade tensions ease. If a mild downturn does arrive, it is worth remembering that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted an average of more than five years. ²¹ To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2026
2) Goldman Sachs Economic Research / JP Morgan Global Research, March 2026
3--5) National Bureau of Economic Research
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q4 2025 / Q1 2026
7) ISM Manufacturing PMI, March 2026
8--9, 17--18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2026
10) Federal Reserve GDPNow / Atlanta Fed, March 2026
11) Wall Street Journal, February 2026
13--14) BEA / Yale Budget Lab, 2026
16) Moody's Analytics, March 2026
19) Federal Reserve Board, March 18, 2026
20) Goldman Sachs / JP Morgan / Moody's Analytics, March 2026

How can employees at Avaya Inc. ensure they are adequately prepared for retirement, considering the various types of pensions available under the Avaya Inc. Pension Plan? What steps should be taken to understand the key features of the pension plan, and how can they assess their individual needs relative to the benefits offered by Avaya Inc.?

Preparation for Retirement at Avaya Inc.: Employees at Avaya Inc. should first review the company’s Summary Plan Description for the pension plan details, which outline the types of pensions available and the processes for claiming them. It's crucial to understand the different pension types—service, deferred vested, and disability pensions—each with specific eligibility criteria and benefits. To prepare adequately, employees should estimate their pension benefits using tools provided by Avaya Inc., attend financial planning seminars offered by the company, and consider consulting with a financial advisor to assess how the pension fits into their broader retirement strategy.

Can you elaborate on the service pension eligibility criteria set by Avaya Inc.? How does age and credited service interact with this criterion, and what unique circumstances should employees at Avaya Inc. be aware of that may affect their eligibility for a service pension?

Service Pension Eligibility Criteria at Avaya Inc.: Eligibility for a service pension at Avaya Inc. is determined by age and credited service. Employees qualify at any age with 30 years of service, at age 50 with 25 years, at 55 with 20 years, and at 65 with 10 years. It’s essential for employees to understand that these criteria are strict; for instance, an employee aged 51 with 24 years of service does not qualify. Employees should plan their retirement age accordingly and consult with HR to confirm their credited service years.

What are the implications of early retirement under the Avaya Inc. Pension Plan? Employees at Avaya Inc. who are considering early retirement should understand both the benefits and potential losses associated with taking retirement benefits before the age of 55.

Implications of Early Retirement: Opting for early retirement at Avaya Inc. can lead to reduced pension benefits, especially if retirement occurs before age 55 with less than 30 years of service. The plan applies an early commencement discount, reducing the pension by 1/2% for each month before age 55. Employees considering early retirement should carefully evaluate how the reduction impacts their financial stability and may want to strategize with HR or a financial advisor to mitigate the reduction's effect.

What is the process for employees at Avaya Inc. to claim a deferred vested pension, and what specific conditions must be met for them to initiate this process? Employees must be informed about the timeline required for claims as well as the potential impact of their age and service duration on their pension amounts.

Claiming a Deferred Vested Pension: To claim a deferred vested pension at Avaya Inc., employees must meet certain conditions, such as being vested and having terminated employment. The pension commencement generally aligns with reaching age 65 or upon earlier termination. Employees must contact the Avaya Pension Service Center to initiate the process, providing necessary documentation and adhering to specified timelines, ensuring they understand the impact of early commencement on their pension amounts.

In what ways does Avaya Inc. support employees returning to work after retirement? Specifically, how does reemployment affect the pension benefits that retirees receive? Employees should consider how their decisions to return to work may minimize or suspend their pension benefits.

Returning to Work Post-Retirement: If an employee at Avaya Inc. returns to work after retirement, their pension benefits might be suspended or reduced, depending on the terms outlined in the pension plan. This policy is intended to adjust benefits when retirees re-enter the workforce, potentially affecting their financial planning. Employees should verify the specific rules with the pension service center and consider the financial implications before deciding to return to work.

How does the Mandatory Portability Agreement (MPA) influence the retirement benefits of Avaya Inc. employees transitioning between positions in affiliated companies? Employees should understand how service credit is recognized and transferred under the MPA and its impact on their retirement planning.

Impact of the Mandatory Portability Agreement (MPA): The MPA affects Avaya Inc. employees transitioning between positions within affiliated companies, allowing for the transfer of service credits. This agreement is crucial for employees moving within the company structure, as it ensures that their pension benefits are maintained and accurately calculated based on cumulative service, fostering seamless transitions and sustained benefit accrual.

What key information should employees at Avaya Inc. know regarding their rights under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) as they navigate the pension benefit process? Understanding ERISA rights is crucial for employees to effectively advocate for their benefits and understand their protections.

Understanding ERISA Rights at Avaya Inc.: Employees at Avaya Inc. should be aware of their rights under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), which safeguards employees' benefits. Understanding these rights is essential for effectively managing their pension plans and ensuring they receive all entitled benefits. Employees should familiarize themselves with the claim and appeal procedures provided in the plan documents to advocate effectively for their rights.

How do survivor benefits work under the Avaya Inc. Pension Plan? Employees and their beneficiaries should be aware of the conditions under which these benefits are paid and how they can designate beneficiaries to ensure compliance with Avaya Inc. policies.

Survivor Benefits under Avaya Inc. Pension Plan: Avaya Inc.'s pension plan provides survivor benefits, which are crucial for employees to arrange financial security for their beneficiaries. Understanding the conditions under which these benefits are paid and how to designate beneficiaries properly ensures that the employees' families are protected in case of the employee's death.

Can you explain the significance of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) in relation to the retirement benefits that employees of Avaya Inc. may expect? Understanding the role of the PBGC could help clarify what protections are in place for employees in the case of plan termination.

Role of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC): The PBGC plays a protective role for Avaya Inc. employees by ensuring that pension benefits are secure even if the plan faces financial difficulties. Employees should understand how the PBGC's coverage affects them, particularly in scenarios where the company’s pension plan might be terminated or underfunded.

If Avaya Inc. employees want to learn more about their pension benefits or have specific questions about the retirement process, who should they contact and what resources are available to them? This question prompts employees to engage with the Avaya Inc. Pension Service Center and access information crucial for their retirement planning.

Accessing Pension Information and Assistance: Employees seeking more information about their pension benefits or needing specific help regarding their retirement process should contact the Avaya Pension Service Center. This center provides detailed guidance, handles claims and appeals, and offers comprehensive support to ensure employees understand and can effectively manage their pension benefits.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Avaya Holdings has announced a major restructuring plan involving significant layoffs and changes to their benefits and retirement plans. The company is focusing on streamlining operations to improve profitability, which includes reducing its workforce and altering pension and 401(k) contributions for current employees.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Avaya Holdings at 350 Mt Kemble Ave Morristown, NJ 7960; or by calling them at +1 908-953-6000.