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Is the U.S. Economy Facing a Recession? Insights for Century Aluminum Employees and Retirees

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The question of whether the U.S. economy is heading into a recession has become one of the most closely watched debates of 2026. GDP growth slowed sharply to just 0.7% annualized in Q4 2025, the weakest quarter in years, and the labor market shed 92,000 jobs in February 2026, missing expectations significantly. ¹ Major forecasting firms now place recession probabilities between 30% and 49%, driven by tariff-related uncertainty, softening consumer spending, and a rising unemployment rate. ² Yet no recession has been officially declared. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has made no such determination, and early estimates for Q1 2026 suggest some economic stabilization.

For employees and retirees, understanding how a recession is officially measured, what the current data signals, and what it may mean for long-term retirement planning has rarely been more relevant.

Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research. ³ Understanding the metrics for recessions and expansions is important context for employees and retirees evaluating their financial plans.

The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months. ⁴

To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the NBER committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two -- and patterns may be clear only in hindsight -- it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.

A Mixed Labor Market
The labor market -- long a pillar of economic strength -- sent its clearest warning signal yet in February 2026, when the U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs, the first meaningful monthly decline since the COVID recovery era. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from a multi-decade low of 3.4% reached in April 2023 and the highest reading since early 2022. ⁸

In the 13 recessions since World War II (including the brief 2020 COVID recession), the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points. ¹¹ The current rise from 3.4% to 4.4% -- a 1.0 percentage point increase over 33 months -- is notable, though it remains well below recessionary norms. That said, direction matters: a prolonged upward trend in unemployment without a corresponding economic recovery is a pattern worth monitoring closely.

Slowing GDP Growth
The common shorthand definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth -- a threshold that has not been met. However, growth has slowed dramatically: real GDP grew at just 0.7% annualized in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3 2025. ¹² GDPNow projects a partial rebound to approximately 1.9% for Q1 2026, but professional forecasters expect only 1.8% growth for the full year 2026 -- well below the long-run trend.

Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without the NBER declaring a recession -- though 2022 was an exception, as the NBER cited the unusually strong employment market. Whether 2026 requires a similar judgment call depends on how the data evolves over the coming months. ¹³

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The Tariff and Inflation Factor
The defining economic stress of 2026 is not a single shock but a combination of forces: tariff-driven cost increases, above-target inflation, and slowing growth. New tariffs represent the largest U.S. tax increase as a share of GDP since 1993, projecting an average household cost increase of approximately $1,500 per year and an additional 0.6% increase in consumer prices. ¹⁷ Business investment is projected to contract 6% due to trade policy uncertainty, and consumer spending growth is expected to slow to just 1.0% in 2026 -- a meaningful deceleration from recent years. ¹⁸ If that slowdown deepens, a recession becomes considerably more likely.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%--3.75% at its March 2026 meeting, balancing inflation running above target (headline CPI at 2.67% year-over-year, core PCE at 3.06%) against a slowing economy. ¹⁹ The Fed may cut rates once or twice in the second half of 2026 if economic conditions warrant -- but with inflation still above the 2% target, its options are constrained.

No one has a crystal ball, and recession probabilities from major forecasters range widely -- Goldman Sachs puts the odds at 30%, JP Morgan at 35%, and Moody's Analytics at 49%. ²⁰ The NBER has not declared a recession, and a soft landing remains possible, particularly if trade tensions ease. If a mild downturn does arrive, it is worth remembering that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted an average of more than five years. ²¹ To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2026
2) Goldman Sachs Economic Research / JP Morgan Global Research, March 2026
3--5) National Bureau of Economic Research
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q4 2025 / Q1 2026
7) ISM Manufacturing PMI, March 2026
8--9, 17--18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2026
10) Federal Reserve GDPNow / Atlanta Fed, March 2026
11) Wall Street Journal, February 2026
13--14) BEA / Yale Budget Lab, 2026
16) Moody's Analytics, March 2026
19) Federal Reserve Board, March 18, 2026
20) Goldman Sachs / JP Morgan / Moody's Analytics, March 2026

What type of retirement plan does Century Aluminum offer to its employees?

Century Aluminum offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to help employees save for their future.

Does Century Aluminum match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Century Aluminum provides a matching contribution up to a certain percentage of employee contributions to the 401(k) plan.

How can employees enroll in the Century Aluminum 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in the Century Aluminum 401(k) plan through the company’s HR portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

What is the eligibility requirement to participate in Century Aluminum's 401(k) plan?

Most employees at Century Aluminum are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a specified period of service, typically within the first year of employment.

Can employees make changes to their contribution levels in Century Aluminum's 401(k) plan?

Yes, employees can change their contribution levels at any time, subject to the plan’s guidelines.

What investment options are available in the Century Aluminum 401(k) plan?

Century Aluminum offers a range of investment options, including mutual funds, stocks, and bonds, allowing employees to choose based on their risk tolerance and retirement goals.

Is there a vesting schedule for Century Aluminum's 401(k) matching contributions?

Yes, Century Aluminum has a vesting schedule for matching contributions, meaning employees must work for a certain number of years to fully own the employer's contributions.

Can employees take loans against their 401(k) balance at Century Aluminum?

Yes, Century Aluminum allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) balance under certain conditions outlined in the plan.

What happens to my Century Aluminum 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave Century Aluminum, you can either cash out your 401(k), roll it over to another retirement account, or leave it in the Century Aluminum plan if you meet the minimum balance requirement.

How often can employees contribute to the Century Aluminum 401(k) plan?

Employees can contribute to the Century Aluminum 401(k) plan through payroll deductions, which occur each pay period.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Century Aluminum has announced significant restructuring plans, including layoffs and a reduction in workforce to streamline operations and cut costs. They are also revising their benefit structure and pension plans as part of their restructuring efforts.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Century Aluminum at 1 South Wacker Drive, Suite 1910 Chicago, IL 60606; or by calling them at 1-312-696-3101.