New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Is the U.S. Economy Facing a Recession? Insights for Southwest Gas Holdings Employees and Retirees

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Southwest Gas Holdings Southwest Gas Holdings provides healthcare benefits through a variety of insurers, primarily utilizing Aetna for their healthcare plans. This partnership enables employees to access a broad network of healthcare services. Expected Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As we approach 2026, healthcare costs are anticipated to soar, significantly impacting those affiliated with Southwest Gas Holdings. This expected surge stems from factors such as the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans, which could lead to a staggering increase of over 75% in out-of-pocket premiums for many enrollees. Moreover, aggressive rate hikes from major insurers, combined with rising medical costs, suggest that employees and retirees may face a challenging financial landscape in the coming year. Proactive management of health benefits and planning will be crucial for individuals navigating these increasing costs. Click here to learn more

In an early July poll, 58% of Americans said they thought the U.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May. ¹ Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The current situation is unusual, and there is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon. ² As a Southwest Gas Holdings employee, it is imperative to keep track of current events that may affect your workplace.

Considering the high level of public concern, it may be helpful for Southwest Gas Holdings employees and retirees to look at how a recession is officially determined and some current indicators that suggest strength or weakness in the U.S. economy.

Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research. ³ As a Southwest Gas Holdings employee looking to allocate assets into the market, understanding the metrics for recessions and expansions is of utmost importance.

The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months. ⁴

As a Southwest Gas Holdings employee, it is important to understand that to determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.5 This information is useful for Southwest Gas Holdings employees making investment decisions as it enlightens the concept of market timing and break down how information is circulated.

Strong Employment
As a Southwest Gas Holdings employee, you may have noticed how over the last few months economic data has been mixed. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June. ⁶ Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month. ⁷ The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment). ⁸

The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969. ⁹ Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows. ¹⁰ In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points. ¹¹ As a Fortune 500 employee, it is imperative to take advantage of this distinguishing metric and re-evaluate your outlook on the market and the economy.

Negative GDP Growth
As a Southwest Gas Holdings employee, it is important to know the common definition of a recession (a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters), and how the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter. ¹² Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly. Understanding how a recession is defined is certainly beneficial for those in Southwest Gas Holdings companies as it allows for educated moves in the market during times where most retail investors are considerably more uncertain.

Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. Despite that, as a Southwest Gas Holdings employee it is important to consider how the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data. ¹³

Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter. ¹⁴

With that under consideration, those employed in Southwest Gas Holdings companies should consider how the Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories. ¹⁵ Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels. ¹⁶ Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.

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The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, it's important for Southwest Gas Holdings employees to keep in consideration that the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.

The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981. ¹⁷ Southwest Gas Holdings employees may notice how wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market. ¹⁸ If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already underway.

Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July. ¹⁹ It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a 'soft landing' or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.

No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023. ²⁰ If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it's important for Southwest Gas Holdings employees and retirees to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months. ²¹ To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1) Investor's Business Daily, July 12, 2022
2) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
3–5) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
7) Reuters, July 15, 2022
8–9, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
11) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
13–14) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022

How does the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan accommodate changes in benefits for employees who have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and what specific provisions have been implemented to ensure continuity of pension credit during such interruptions? Employees of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan are particularly encouraged to review how these provisions may impact their retirement plans and benefits, especially given the unprecedented circumstances of the pandemic.

The Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan accommodated changes due to COVID-19 by extending various deadlines for participants, such as the 12-month deadline to apply for pension credit for periods of disability, and other deadlines regarding claims and appeals. These extensions were applied from March 1, 2020, to a period of up to one year after the original deadline or 60 days after the end of the COVID-19 national emergency, ensuring continuity of pension credit during the pandemic interruptions(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

What enhancements to pension benefit calculations have been introduced for the years following January 1, 2021, under the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan, and how do these changes affect participants working more than 1,800 hours? This question emphasizes the implications of increased benefit accrual rates and the actual processes employees must follow to calculate their pensions effectively.

Enhancements to pension benefit calculations effective January 1, 2021, under the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan include an increase in the monthly benefit accrual rate for participants working 1,800 hours or more. The rate increased from $100 to $200, and for those working more than 1,800 hours, a maximum benefit accrual rate of $244.44 was introduced(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

In the context of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan, could you explain the eligibility criteria for receiving a Service Pension and how employees can accumulate the necessary Pension Credits more quickly? This consideration is vital for members who wish to understand the retirement options available to them and the strategies they might employ in their careers to maximize their benefits under the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan.

Employees of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan are eligible for a Service Pension after earning 30 years of Pension Credit. Additional Service Pension Eligibility Credit was introduced, allowing employees working over 1,800 hours annually to accumulate credits more quickly, up to a maximum of 2,200 hours(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

How do temporary disability benefits interact with the accumulation of Pension Credits within the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan? Specifically, employees may have questions about how their working history and service time might be affected should they take leave for health-related reasons, highlighting the intricate balance between pay and benefits during challenging times.

Temporary disability benefits under the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan allow participants to accumulate Pension Credits during non-working periods if they are on short-term disability or receiving workers' compensation. Pension Credits can be granted for up to 1,200 hours annually, depending on the nature of the disability and employment history(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

What are the implications of the revised definitions under the Required Beginning Date as specified by the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan, particularly in compliance with the SECURE Act (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act)? Employees should understand how these legislative changes affect their retirement strategies, especially in light of penalties for failing to comply with mandatory commencement dates.

The Required Beginning Date for the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan was revised to comply with the SECURE Act. Participants born on or after July 1, 1949, must begin receiving benefits by April 1 of the calendar year following the year they turn 72. Failure to comply with this could result in a 50% excise tax(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

How can employees of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan navigate the process for applying for pension credit during periods of Temporary Disability, and what specific documentation is required? This inquiry encourages a deeper understanding of protocol surrounding disability applications and the associated benefits that participants are entitled to under the Plan.

Employees applying for pension credit during periods of Temporary Disability must submit a written application within one year of the onset of the disability, and provide documentation such as state-approved short-term disability certification or workers' compensation benefits(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

What are the implications of the retroactive increases to the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan benefits aimed at participants who accrued credit during the years 2011 to 2020, and how can affected employees determine their eligibility for said increases? Employees often seek clarification on how historical contributions can manifest in current benefits.

Retroactive increases to the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan benefits for the years 2011 to 2020 apply to participants who worked at least 1,000 hours in 2020 or under specific collective bargaining agreements. A 50% increase in benefit accrual rates was applied to these years, and eligible employees can determine their eligibility based on their hours worked(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

What role does the Southwest Carpenters Administrative Office play in assisting employees who have questions regarding modifiability in their pension plans, and what are the best methods for contacting them for assistance? This question highlights the importance of communication within the organization concerning employee inquiries and issue resolution.

The Southwest Carpenters Administrative Office assists employees with questions regarding modifications to their pension plans. Participants can contact them at (213) 386-8590 or (800) 293-1370 for personalized assistance(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

Can you detail the factors influencing the Benefit Accrual Rate for participants of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan for the calendar years after 2021, and how might employees calculate their expected pension benefits? Participants will want to understand the nuances of how their benefits are computed to make informed decisions regarding their retirement planning.

The Benefit Accrual Rate for participants of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan after 2021 increased to $200 for 1,800 hours worked, with higher accrual rates for additional hours. Employees can calculate their benefits by multiplying their benefit accrual rate by the applicable benefit factor(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

In the event of legal actions regarding benefits under ERISA against the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan, what venue restrictions apply, and what does this mean for participants seeking resolution in disputes? Employees need to be informed of the legal frameworks governing their benefits and understand their rights and the procedures that affect their claims within the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan.

Legal actions regarding benefits under ERISA against the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan must be filed in Federal District Court in Los Angeles County, California. This venue restriction defines the jurisdiction where participants must file claims(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).