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Is the U.S. Economy Facing a Recession? Insights for USG Corporation Employees and Retirees

The question of whether the U.S. economy is heading into a recession has become one of the most closely watched debates of 2026. GDP growth slowed sharply to just 0.7% annualized in Q4 2025, the weakest quarter in years, and the labor market shed 92,000 jobs in February 2026, missing expectations significantly. ¹ Major forecasting firms now place recession probabilities between 30% and 49%, driven by tariff-related uncertainty, softening consumer spending, and a rising unemployment rate. ² Yet no recession has been officially declared. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has made no such determination, and early estimates for Q1 2026 suggest some economic stabilization.

For employees and retirees, understanding how a recession is officially measured, what the current data signals, and what it may mean for long-term retirement planning has rarely been more relevant.

Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research. ³ Understanding the metrics for recessions and expansions is important context for employees and retirees evaluating their financial plans.

The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months. ⁴

To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the NBER committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two -- and patterns may be clear only in hindsight -- it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.

A Mixed Labor Market
The labor market -- long a pillar of economic strength -- sent its clearest warning signal yet in February 2026, when the U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs, the first meaningful monthly decline since the COVID recovery era. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from a multi-decade low of 3.4% reached in April 2023 and the highest reading since early 2022. ⁸

In the 13 recessions since World War II (including the brief 2020 COVID recession), the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points. ¹¹ The current rise from 3.4% to 4.4% -- a 1.0 percentage point increase over 33 months -- is notable, though it remains well below recessionary norms. That said, direction matters: a prolonged upward trend in unemployment without a corresponding economic recovery is a pattern worth monitoring closely.

Slowing GDP Growth
The common shorthand definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth -- a threshold that has not been met. However, growth has slowed dramatically: real GDP grew at just 0.7% annualized in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3 2025. ¹² GDPNow projects a partial rebound to approximately 1.9% for Q1 2026, but professional forecasters expect only 1.8% growth for the full year 2026 -- well below the long-run trend.

Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without the NBER declaring a recession -- though 2022 was an exception, as the NBER cited the unusually strong employment market. Whether 2026 requires a similar judgment call depends on how the data evolves over the coming months. ¹³

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The Tariff and Inflation Factor
The defining economic stress of 2026 is not a single shock but a combination of forces: tariff-driven cost increases, above-target inflation, and slowing growth. New tariffs represent the largest U.S. tax increase as a share of GDP since 1993, projecting an average household cost increase of approximately $1,500 per year and an additional 0.6% increase in consumer prices. ¹⁷ Business investment is projected to contract 6% due to trade policy uncertainty, and consumer spending growth is expected to slow to just 1.0% in 2026 -- a meaningful deceleration from recent years. ¹⁸ If that slowdown deepens, a recession becomes considerably more likely.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%--3.75% at its March 2026 meeting, balancing inflation running above target (headline CPI at 2.67% year-over-year, core PCE at 3.06%) against a slowing economy. ¹⁹ The Fed may cut rates once or twice in the second half of 2026 if economic conditions warrant -- but with inflation still above the 2% target, its options are constrained.

No one has a crystal ball, and recession probabilities from major forecasters range widely -- Goldman Sachs puts the odds at 30%, JP Morgan at 35%, and Moody's Analytics at 49%. ²⁰ The NBER has not declared a recession, and a soft landing remains possible, particularly if trade tensions ease. If a mild downturn does arrive, it is worth remembering that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted an average of more than five years. ²¹ To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2026
2) Goldman Sachs Economic Research / JP Morgan Global Research, March 2026
3--5) National Bureau of Economic Research
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q4 2025 / Q1 2026
7) ISM Manufacturing PMI, March 2026
8--9, 17--18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2026
10) Federal Reserve GDPNow / Atlanta Fed, March 2026
11) Wall Street Journal, February 2026
13--14) BEA / Yale Budget Lab, 2026
16) Moody's Analytics, March 2026
19) Federal Reserve Board, March 18, 2026
20) Goldman Sachs / JP Morgan / Moody's Analytics, March 2026

How does the retirement plan structure at USG Corporation impact both final average earnings participants and cash balance participants, especially regarding their eligibility and benefits accrued over time? In what ways does the differentiation between these two categories influence the retirement outcomes for employees of USG Corporation?

Retirement Plan Structure: USG Corporation's retirement plan differentiates between Final Average Earnings Participants and Cash Balance Participants. Final Average Earnings participants, who joined before January 1, 2011, accrue benefits based on their final average earnings and years of service, which can result in higher benefits for longer-serving employees. Cash Balance participants, who joined after January 1, 2011, have their benefits calculated based on a cash balance account, which grows with contributions and interest credits. These differences affect retirement outcomes, as Final Average Earnings participants may see higher pension payments if they have longer service or higher wages, while Cash Balance participants have more predictable but potentially lower benefits based on their account balance(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

USG Corporation's Retirement Plan allows for different age-specific rules regarding early retirement. How do the "Rule of 90" and "Rule of 82" affect the financial planning of employees considering an early retirement option, and what should they consider regarding their long-term financial security?

Rule of 90 and Rule of 82: The "Rule of 90" allows employees to retire early without a reduction in benefits if their age plus years of service total 90, provided they retire at or after age 62. The "Rule of 82" permits early retirement with reduced benefits for those whose age and years of service total 82. Employees planning early retirement must consider these rules as they directly affect the amount of benefits they receive, making it important to assess how long-term financial security will be impacted, especially if they retire before age 62(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

Could you elaborate on the process through which employees at USG Corporation can change their beneficiaries within the retirement plan? What steps need to be taken, and what are the implications of these changes on the benefits received upon the participant's death?

Changing Beneficiaries: To change beneficiaries, USG Corporation employees must contact Your Benefits Resources™, where they can designate a primary and contingent beneficiary. If married, the spouse must provide notarized consent to name a different primary beneficiary. The process involves completing a form, and any changes affect who receives benefits upon the participant's death. Failing to update the beneficiary could result in benefits being paid to unintended individuals(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

As part of the retirement process at USG Corporation, how are pensionable earnings calculated? What factors are included in this determination, and how might they vary among different employees based on their roles within the organization?

Pensionable Earnings Calculation: Pensionable earnings at USG Corporation include regular pay, shift differentials, and bonuses but exclude items like nonqualified deferred compensation, severance, and stock awards. These earnings are used to calculate benefits based on formulas that take into account an employee’s service years and earnings over the 36 highest consecutive months of the last 15 years of participation(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How does the automatic enrollment in the USG Corporation Retirement Plan work, and what options do employees have if they initially chose not to participate? What implications might this have for their retirement savings strategy?

Automatic Enrollment and Opting In: Employees at USG Corporation are automatically enrolled in the retirement plan unless they choose to opt out. If employees decide not to participate initially, they can enroll later by contacting Your Benefits Resources™. Failure to participate from the start could result in lower retirement savings due to fewer years of contributions(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

In the context of USG Corporation, what are the potential tax consequences for employees withdrawing their retirement benefits, especially regarding the mandatory withholdings? How might employees effectively manage these tax liabilities when planning for retirement?

Tax Consequences of Withdrawals: Employees withdrawing their retirement benefits from USG Corporation will face mandatory federal income tax withholdings, typically 20% for lump sum distributions, unless the distribution is rolled over into an IRA. Employees must plan for these taxes when withdrawing to avoid unexpected liabilities and ensure they maximize their after-tax retirement income(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How do employees at USG Corporation access the necessary documents related to their retirement benefits, and what is the process for obtaining copies of these documents if needed? What are the responsibilities of the Plan Administrator in this process?

Accessing Retirement Documents: Employees can access documents related to their retirement benefits through Your Benefits Resources™ online or via phone. If additional copies are needed, employees can request them from the Plan Administrator for a small fee. The Plan Administrator oversees ensuring these documents are provided to participants as required by ERISA(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

What unique provisions exist for USG Corporation employees who experience a break in service? How do these provisions impact their accumulated benefit service and overall benefits upon reemployment?

Break in Service Provisions: USG Corporation allows employees who experience a break in service to retain their accumulated benefits if they are reemployed within one year. If reemployed after one year, their previous service may not count toward future benefits unless they were vested prior to termination. This can affect the total benefits an employee accrues if they leave and later return(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

What options do employees of USG Corporation have for managing their benefits if they return to work after retirement? How does this affect their pension benefits and the overall strategy for maximizing retirement income?

Returning to Work After Retirement: Employees returning to work after retirement at USG Corporation will have their pension payments suspended and recalculated based on additional years of service. This recalculation takes into account prior payments, meaning employees should consider the impact of returning to work on their long-term pension strategy(USG Corporation_Retirem…)(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How can employees of USG Corporation contact their Benefits Resourcesâ„¢ for more information on their retirement plan options? Are there specific channels preferred for different types of inquiries, and what resources are available to assist them?

Contacting Benefits Resources™: Employees can contact Your Benefits Resources™ via the web or a toll-free number to inquire about retirement plan options. Different inquiries, such as changes to beneficiaries or requesting benefit estimates, can be handled through these channels. Resources such as detailed benefit estimates are available to help employees plan for retirement(USG Corporation_Retirem…).