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Investing Insights for Berkshire hathaway Employees: The Pros and Cons of Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Contributions

The Value Series

What is Book Value?

Testing

Weighting

The Brandes Research Institute

About The Retirement Group

Sources

The Value Series

Given the current elevated market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics in our four-part series. As an employee or retiree of Berkshire hathaway, who likely has little market analysis experience, we understand that the valuation process can seem confusing. However, we are here to tell you that the valuation process does not have to be complex to be successful. Simple valuation techniques such as the price-to-book ratio are generally easy to use and have been proven to be effective if utilized correctly. Investors are often looking for ways for their clients to beat the market. If you're one of those investors, you may want to consider the following strategy that has been implemented by the investment greats. Some value investors have historically beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500, and many have successful track records spanning several decades to prove it. Berkshire hathaway employees, it is important to be knowledgeable regarding tactics used by famous investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. The investment style implemented by these professionals focus on four metrics that characterize a value investment. These four metrics include the Price to Earnings Ratio, the Price to Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and the Price to Book Ratio. These metrics, as you will see, are strong indicators of undervalued security. If undervalued security is brought back to fair value then we would see positive returns on that security. For Berkshire hathaway employees, it is possible to utilize these metrics to better position yourself in the market for heightened returns. We will examine the effect of investing based off of certain characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated. Today, I want to end the four-part TRG Value Series with the granddaddy of metrics, the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B).

What is Book Value?

Book value is preferred by many value investors to cash flow and earnings metrics because it is more stable year-to-year whereas cash flow and earnings can vary greatly. This is an important property for those at Berkshire hathaway to look out for due to the following reason: When a business at a cyclical trough with diminished cash flow and earnings might look expensive on the basis of price-to-cash flow or price-to-earnings, that same business may appear cheap on the basis of price-to-book value. This is because book value won’t fall much or at all in a downturn, and vice versa. Thus, the argument goes, the price-to-book value gives a more reliable picture of a company’s usual business performance, which Berkshire hathaway employees can use to elevate their investment decisions and investment performance. Benjamin Graham popularized the indicator in his books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor”. Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and his research partner Kenneth French used the ratio in their three- and five-factor models to describe stock returns. Professor Joseph Piotroski uses the ratio as the only valuation measure in his F-Score methodology.

Testing

We understand the importance of data driven research for Berkshire hathaway employees and retirees. Set out below are the results of two Fama and French backtests of the book value-to-market equity (the inverse of the PB ratio) data from 1926 to 2013. As of December 2013, there were 3,175 firms in the sample (Carlisle-PB, P2). The value decile contained the 459 stocks with the highest earnings yield, and the glamour decile contained the 404 stocks with the lowest earnings yield.

The average size of the glamour stocks is $7.48 billion and the value stocks are $2.54 billion. (Note that the average is heavily skewed by the biggest companies. For context, the 3,175th company has a market capitalization today of $404 million, which is smaller than the average, but still investable for most investors). Portfolios are formed on June 30 and rebalanced annually. When accounting for this backtest, Berkshire hathaway employees may recognize how two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, which means that bigger firms contribute more to the performance of the portfolio, and smaller firms contribute less. Here, we can see that the value decile has comprehensively outperformed the glamour decile, returning 12.6 percent compounded (17.7 percent in the average year) over the full period versus 8.6 percent for the glamour decile (10.9 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PB, P3).

These returns are considerably lower than the returns found for the price-to-earnings and cash-flow ratios discussed earlier. Despite the irregularity, Berkshire hathaway employees must be aware that the earnings and cash flow back tests ran back to only 1951, and the book value return data begins in 1926. The difference is due to the 1929 crash, which had an oversized impact on returns. The impact of the crash is visible on the chart; it took twenty years for the value decile to fully recover. Berkshire hathaway employees must also note how something similar has happened to the glamour decile since 2000; it hasn’t grown in 13 years. To make a comparison possible of the book value’s performance to the performance of earnings and cash flow over the same period, I also measured the returns beginning in 1951. Since 1951, the low P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 17.9 percent. Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent (Carlisle-PB, P5). These returns are approximately the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period.

In their study, they found that the quintile of the lowest P/E stocks significantly outperformed the high P/E quintile. The portfolio containing the lowest P/E stock returned 11.61% annualized compared to 4.83% for the highest P/E portfolio and 7.55% for the used universe of stocks. The graph below shows how the cumulative returns compare (it’s not even close). Berkshire hathaway employees can utilize this information to avoid investing in underperforming assets and better predict economic trends that translate into higher ROI.

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Weighting

It is important for employees and retirees of Berkshire hathaway to understand how market capitalization-weighted returns are useful for demonstrating that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to the value portfolios containing smaller stocks. Unless you’re running an index (or hugging an index), they’re not really meaningful. The easiest portfolio weighting scheme is to simply equally weight each position. (If we’re prepared to put up with a little extra volatility for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is determined by the Kelly Criterion which is a formula used to determine what percentage of their capital should be used in each trade to maximize long-term growth. There are two key components to the formula (Kelly % = W- [(1 - W) / R]): the winning probability factor (W) and the win/loss ratio (R). The winning probability is the probability a trade will have a positive return. The win/loss ratio is equal to the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trading amounts. The result of the formula will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should apply to each investment. By utilizing the Kelly Weighting, investors employed or retiring from Berkshire hathaway can have a better grasp of their exposure to each individual asset in their portfolio and make informed decisions regarding their asset allocation.

Berkshire hathaway employees should also account for the equal weight return statistics for book value. In the equal weight backtest, the value generated a 20.2 percent compounded return (27.3 percent on average), beating out glamour’s 6.3 percent compounded return (10.4 percent on average) (Carlisle-PB, P10). Since 1951 the equally weighted P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 25.4 percent (Carlisle-PB, P11).

Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 6.4 percent and an AAR of 10.8 percent. These returns are close to the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period. When accounting for this information, Berkshire hathaway employees must recognize that the value portfolios outperformed because they bought more book value per dollar invested than the glamour portfolios: 4.57x on average versus 0.25x in the glamour portfolios (Carlisle-PB, P12). In the equal-weight portfolios, value has significantly outperformed glamour since 1999, beating it by an extraordinary 15.9 percent compounded, and 16.1 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PB, P13).

The Brandes Research Institute

Because we understand just how important data-driven solutions are for our Berkshire hathaway employees and retirees, we have provided another study, which discusses the P/CF ratio. In a Brandes Research Institute study, Exhibit 6 below illustrates the global all-cap findings across three price metrics.

The results confirmed a consistent value premium across all metrics. We will focus on the P/CF ratio and the outperformance in the decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks can be observed with the P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8).

About The Retirement Group

The Retirement Group is a nation-wide group of financial advisors who work together as a team.

We focus entirely on retirement planning and the design of retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees. Each representative of the group has been hand selected by The Retirement Group in select cities of the United States. Each advisor was selected based on their pension expertise, experience in financial planning, and portfolio construction knowledge.

TRG takes a teamwork approach in providing the best possible solutions for our clients’ concerns. The Team has a conservative investment philosophy and diversifies client portfolios with laddered bonds, CDs, mutual funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks and other investments to help achieve their goals. The team addresses Retirement, Pension, Tax, Asset Allocation, Estate, and Elder Care issues. This document utilizes various research tools and techniques. A variety of assumptions and judgmental elements are inevitably inherent in any attempt to estimate future results and, consequently, such results should be viewed as tentative estimations. Changes in the law, investment climate, interest rates, and personal circumstances will have profound effects on both the accuracy of our estimations and the suitability of our recommendations. The need for ongoing sensitivity to change and for constant re-examination and alteration of the plan is thus apparent.

Therefore, we encourage you to have your plan updated a few months before your potential retirement date as well as an annual review. It should be emphasized that neither The Retirement Group, LLC nor any of its employees can engage in the practice of law or accounting and that nothing in this document should be taken as an effort to do so. We look forward to working with tax and/or legal professionals you may select to discuss the relevant ramifications of our recommendations.

Throughout your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement through our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and regular updates. You may always reach us at (800) 900-5867.

Sources

What to do with an Early Retirement Ebook
Social Security Ebook
Lump Sum vs. Annuity Ebook
401(k) Rollover Strategies Ebook
Closing the Retirement Gap Ebook
Brandes Institute, The. “Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective”. 2014. < https://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective>.
Carlisle, Tobias. “Investing Using the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Earnings Yield (Backtests 1951 to 2013)”. May 26, 2014. <http://greenbackd.com/2014/05/26/price-to-earnings-ratio-backtest-1951-to-2013/>.
Causeway Capital. “The Compelling Case for Value Stocks”. 2018 https://www.causewaycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/201802-TheCompellingCaseforValue-1.pdf
Research Affiliates. “To Win with ‘Smart Beta’, Ask if the Price is Right” September 7, 2016 < https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004564-win-smart-beta-ask-price-right>
Tweedy Browne Company LLC. “What Has Worked in Investing: Studies of Investment Approaches and Characteristics Associated with Exceptional Returns.” 1992. <http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundVersionWeb.pdf>.
Yuan, Vera. Guru Focus. “Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Book Value? Which Parameters Are Stock Prices Most Correlated To?”. August 2, 2013. < http://www.gurufocus.com/news/225255/earnings-free-cash-flow-book-value-which-parameters-are-stock-prices-most-correlated-to->.
Fama and French Backtesting http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html

How does the merger of the Johns Manville Employees Retirement Plan into the Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Pension Plan specifically affect the retirement benefits for current employees at Johns Manville? In what ways can eligible employees of Johns Manville leverage the benefits of this merger to maximize their retirement planning?

Impact of Merger on Current Employees' Retirement Benefits: The merger of the Johns Manville Employees Retirement Plan into the Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Pension Plan does not decrease the pension benefits previously earned by employees under their prior plans. Employees continue to receive the same benefits with the same payment options as provided by their prior plan. Any previous payment elections, beneficiary designations, and qualified domestic relations orders remain effective. This consolidation also maintains the insurance of pension benefits through the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.

What are the implications for employees of Johns Manville if they choose to retire early prior to their Normal Retirement Age? How do the specific conditions set forth in the Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Pension Plan guide early retirees from Johns Manville in making informed decisions regarding their benefit options?

Implications of Early Retirement: Employees of Johns Manville who choose to retire early, before their Normal Retirement Age, can still receive benefits. However, these benefits are adjusted based on the age of retirement. If an employee retires at 60, for instance, their monthly benefit payment from the plan will be reduced by a certain percentage for each month that the benefit payments start before the Normal Retirement Age. This reduction compensates for the longer period over which benefits are expected to be paid.

Given the unique characteristics of the Merged Plan, what should employees at Johns Manville consider when calculating their Average Final Salary, and how does this calculation impact their retirement benefits? Additionally, how is Covered Compensation factored into this adjustment, and what strategies can employees employ to ensure accurate calculations?

Calculation of Average Final Salary and Covered Compensation: When calculating the Average Final Salary for retirement benefits, it includes the highest-paid, five consecutive years out of the last ten years of employment. This calculation impacts the retirement benefits as it forms part of the formula used to determine the pension amount. Additionally, Covered Compensation, which refers to the average of the Social Security wage bases, is used to adjust portions of the salary in the benefits calculation, ensuring that the benefits align with national wage growth trends.

How can employees of Johns Manville navigate the various options available for retirement benefit payments outlined in the Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Pension Plan? What key points should Johns Manville employees consider regarding the selection of forms of payment and potential tax implications in retirement?

Navigating Retirement Benefit Payment Options: Employees of Johns Manville need to consider the form of payment for their retirement benefits, as different options can have different tax implications and affect monthly income. Options typically include lump sums, annuities, or a combination. Employees should consider their financial needs, tax situation, and life expectancy when choosing the form of payment. Consulting with a financial advisor could be beneficial.

For employees at Johns Manville, what steps should they take to stay informed about their accumulated service and benefit service credits, particularly in relation to the changes brought about by the merger into the Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Pension Plan? How do vested rights impact their eligibility for retirement benefits?

Staying Informed About Service Credits: To manage the transition and keep track of their service credits post-merger, Johns Manville employees should regularly review their service and benefit statements, maintain communication with the plan administrator, and attend any informational meetings or seminars offered by Berkshire Hathaway. Understanding how service credits are calculated and tracked ensures that employees can accurately plan for retirement.

What is the process for reemployment under the Terms of the Merged Plan for former employees of Johns Manville, and how can they ensure their accumulated benefit service is credited effectively upon rehire? What are the implications of this reemployment on their retirement benefits, particularly concerning their previous employment history?

Reemployment and Accumulated Benefits: Reemployed former employees of Johns Manville should verify how their accumulated benefits are treated upon their rehire. Generally, benefits accumulated during previous periods of employment will be credited upon rehire, but specific plan provisions should be consulted to confirm how reemployment affects accrued benefits and eligibility for additional benefits.

What do the terms of the Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Pension Plan dictate regarding disability retirement benefits for eligible employees at Johns Manville? How should employees approach the application process for disability benefits, and what criteria do they need to be aware of to qualify?

Disability Retirement Benefits: Eligible employees of Johns Manville who become disabled according to the terms of the plan may qualify for disability retirement benefits. The process involves a determination by the plan administrator, and employees must meet specific criteria outlined in the plan documents to qualify. Understanding these criteria and the required documentation is crucial for accessing disability benefits.

How can employees of Johns Manville ensure they have adequate protection for their beneficiaries under the retirement provisions outlined in the Berkshire Hathaway Consolidated Pension Plan? What specific steps can employees take to secure these benefits, and how can they keep their beneficiary designations updated?

Beneficiary Protections: Employees should regularly review and update their beneficiary designations to ensure that their retirement benefits are distributed according to their wishes upon their death. This includes making any necessary changes following life events such as marriage, divorce, or the birth of a child.

How does participation in the Merged Plan differ for salaried and hourly employees of Johns Manville, and what specific eligibility criteria apply to each group? How can understanding these differences improve retirement planning for employees across the different classifications?

Differences in Participation for Salaried and Hourly Employees: The eligibility and benefits might differ between salaried and hourly employees under the Merged Plan. Understanding these differences helps employees make informed decisions about their retirement planning and benefit utilization.

How can employees of Johns Manville contact the Local Benefits Administrator for assistance regarding their retirement benefits and the contents of their plan documents? What are the recommended methods of communication for inquiries or requests regarding their Merged Plan benefits?

Contacting Local Benefits Administrator: Employees should contact their Local Benefits Administrator for any inquiries or assistance regarding their retirement plan. Keeping the contact information updated and consulting the administrator for guidance on plan provisions and benefit claims is advised for navigating their retirement benefits effectively.