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New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

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Investing Insights for CarMax Employees: The Pros and Cons of Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Contributions

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Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for CarMax: CarMax partners with UnitedHealthcare as its primary healthcare provider. This partnership allows CarMax employees to access a variety of health insurance options tailored to meet their healthcare needs. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As we look ahead to 2026, CarMax employees may face significant healthcare cost increases due to rising premiums driven by several factors. The anticipated expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies, combined with aggressive rate hikes from major insurers, could see some enrollees facing premium increases of up to 75%. This perfect storm of higher medical costs and regulatory changes indicates that families may need to brace for a substantial financial impact, making navigating healthcare options more critical than ever for employees. Click here to learn more

Table of Contents

The Value Series

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Given the current elevated market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics in our four-part series. As an employee or retiree of CarMax, who likely has little market analysis experience, we understand that the valuation process can seem confusing. However, we are here to tell you that the valuation process does not have to be complex to be successful. Simple valuation techniques such as the price-to-book ratio are generally easy to use and have been proven to be effective if utilized correctly.  Investors are often looking for ways for their clients to beat the market. If you're one of those investors, you may want to consider the following strategy that has been implemented by the investment greats. Some value investors have historically beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500, and many have successful track records spanning several decades to prove it. CarMax employees, it is important to be knowledgeable regarding tactics used by famous investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. The investment style implemented by these professionals focus on four metrics that characterize a value investment. These four metrics include the Price to Earnings Ratio, the Price to Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and the Price to Book Ratio. These metrics, as you will see, are strong indicators of undervalued security. If undervalued security is brought back to fair value then we would see positive returns on that security.  For CarMax employees, it is possible to utilize these metrics to better position yourself in the market for heightened returns. We will examine the effect of investing based off of certain characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated. Today, I want to end the four-part TRG Value Series with the granddaddy of metrics, the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B).

What is Book Value?

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Book value is preferred by many value investors to cash flow and earnings metrics because it is more stable year-to-year whereas cash flow and earnings can vary greatly. This is an important property for those at CarMax to look out for due to the following reason: When a business at a cyclical trough with diminished cash flow and earnings might look expensive on the basis of price-to-cash flow or price-to-earnings, that same business may appear cheap on the basis of price-to-book value. This is because book value won’t fall much or at all in a downturn, and vice versa. Thus, the argument goes, the price-to-book value gives a more reliable picture of a company’s usual business performance, which CarMax employees can use to elevate their investment decisions and investment performance. Benjamin Graham popularized the indicator in his books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor”. Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and his research partner Kenneth French used the ratio in their three- and five-factor models to describe stock returns. Professor Joseph Piotroski uses the ratio as the only valuation measure in his F-Score methodology.

Testing

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We understand the importance of data driven research for CarMax employees and retirees. Set out below are the results of two Fama and French backtests of the book value-to-market equity (the inverse of the PB ratio) data from 1926 to 2013. As of December 2013, there were 3,175 firms in the sample (Carlisle-PB, P2). The value decile contained the 459 stocks with the highest earnings yield, and the glamour decile contained the 404 stocks with the lowest earnings yield.

 

 

The average size of the glamour stocks is $7.48 billion and the value stocks are $2.54 billion. (Note that the average is heavily skewed by the biggest companies. For context, the 3,175th company has a market capitalization today of $404 million, which is smaller than the average, but still investable for most investors). Portfolios are formed on June 30 and rebalanced annually. When accounting for this backtest, CarMax employees may recognize how two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, which means that bigger firms contribute more to the performance of the portfolio, and smaller firms contribute less. Here, we can see that the value decile has comprehensively outperformed the glamour decile, returning 12.6 percent compounded (17.7 percent in the average year) over the full period versus 8.6 percent for the glamour decile (10.9 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PB, P3).

 

These returns are considerably lower than the returns found for the price-to-earnings and cash-flow ratios discussed earlier. Despite the irregularity, CarMax employees must be aware that the earnings and cash flow back tests ran back to only 1951, and the book value return data begins in 1926. The difference is due to the 1929 crash, which had an oversized impact on returns. The impact of the crash is visible on the chart; it took twenty years for the value decile to fully recover. CarMax employees must also note how something similar has happened to the glamour decile since 2000; it hasn’t grown in 13 years. To make a comparison possible of the book value’s performance to the performance of earnings and cash flow over the same period, I also measured the returns beginning in 1951. Since 1951, the low P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 17.9 percent. Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent (Carlisle-PB, P5). These returns are approximately the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period.

 

 

In their study, they found that the quintile of the lowest P/E stocks significantly outperformed the high P/E quintile. The portfolio containing the lowest P/E stock returned 11.61% annualized compared to 4.83% for the highest P/E portfolio and 7.55% for the used universe of stocks. The graph below shows how the cumulative returns compare (it’s not even close). CarMax employees can utilize this information to avoid investing in underperforming assets and better predict economic trends that translate into higher ROI.

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Weighting

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It is important for employees and retirees of CarMax to understand how market capitalization-weighted returns are useful for demonstrating that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to the value portfolios containing smaller stocks. Unless you’re running an index (or hugging an index), they’re not really meaningful. The easiest portfolio weighting scheme is to simply equally weight each position. (If we’re prepared to put up with a little extra volatility for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is determined by the Kelly Criterion which is a formula used to determine what percentage of their capital should be used in each trade to maximize long-term growth. There are two key components to the formula (Kelly % = W- [(1 - W) / R]): the winning probability factor (W) and the win/loss ratio (R). The winning probability is the probability a trade will have a positive return. The win/loss ratio is equal to the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trading amounts. The result of the formula will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should apply to each investment. By utilizing the Kelly Weighting, investors employed or retiring from CarMax can have a better grasp of their exposure to each individual asset in their portfolio and make informed decisions regarding their asset allocation.

 

CarMax employees should also account for the equal weight return statistics for book value.  In the equal weight backtest, the value generated a 20.2 percent compounded return (27.3 percent on average), beating out glamour’s 6.3 percent compounded return (10.4 percent on average) (Carlisle-PB, P10). Since 1951 the equally weighted P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 25.4 percent (Carlisle-PB, P11).

 

 

 

 

Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 6.4 percent and an AAR of 10.8 percent. These returns are close to the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period. When accounting for this information, CarMax employees must recognize that the value portfolios outperformed because they bought more book value per dollar invested than the glamour portfolios: 4.57x on average versus 0.25x in the glamour portfolios (Carlisle-PB, P12). In the equal-weight portfolios, value has significantly outperformed glamour since 1999, beating it by an extraordinary 15.9 percent compounded, and 16.1 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PB, P13).

The Brandes Research Institute

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Because we understand just how important data-driven solutions are for our CarMax employees and retirees, we have provided another study, which discusses the P/CF ratio. In a Brandes Research Institute study, Exhibit 6 below illustrates the global all-cap findings across three price metrics.

 

 

 

 

The results confirmed a consistent value premium across all metrics. We will focus on the P/CF ratio and the outperformance in the decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks can be observed with the P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8).

About The Retirement Group    

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The Retirement Group is a nation-wide group of financial advisors who work together as a team.

 

We focus entirely on retirement planning and the design of retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees. Each representative of the group has been hand selected by The Retirement Group in select cities of the United States. Each advisor was selected based on their pension expertise, experience in financial planning, and portfolio construction knowledge.

TRG takes a teamwork approach in providing the best possible solutions for our clients’ concerns. The Team has a conservative investment philosophy and diversifies client portfolios with laddered bonds, CDs, mutual funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks and other investments to help achieve their goals. The team addresses Retirement, Pension, Tax, Asset Allocation, Estate, and Elder Care issues. This document utilizes various research tools and techniques. A variety of assumptions and judgmental elements are inevitably inherent in any attempt to estimate future results and, consequently, such results should be viewed as tentative estimations. Changes in the law, investment climate, interest rates, and personal circumstances will have profound effects on both the accuracy of our estimations and the suitability of our recommendations. The need for ongoing sensitivity to change and for constant re-examination and alteration of the plan is thus apparent.

Therefore, we encourage you to have your plan updated a few months before your potential retirement date as well as an annual review. It should be emphasized that neither The Retirement Group, LLC nor any of its employees can engage in the practice of law or accounting and that nothing in this document should be taken as an effort to do so. We look forward to working with tax and/or legal professionals you may select to discuss the relevant ramifications of our recommendations.

Throughout your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement through our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and regular updates. You may always reach us at (800) 900-5867.

Sources

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  1. What to do with an Early Retirement Ebook

  2. Social Security Ebook

  3. Lump Sum vs. Annuity Ebook

  4. 401(k) Rollover Strategies Ebook

  5. Closing the Retirement Gap Ebook

  6. Brandes Institute, The. “Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective”. 2014. < https://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective>. 

  7.  Carlisle, Tobias. “Investing Using the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Earnings Yield (Backtests 1951 to 2013)”. May 26, 2014. <http://greenbackd.com/2014/05/26/price-to-earnings-ratio-backtest-1951-to-2013/>.

  8. Causeway Capital. “The Compelling Case for Value Stocks”. 2018 https://www.causewaycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/201802-TheCompellingCaseforValue-1.pdf

  9. Research Affiliates. “To Win with ‘Smart Beta’, Ask if the Price is Right” September 7, 2016 < https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004564-win-smart-beta-ask-price-right>

  10. Tweedy Browne Company LLC. “What Has Worked in Investing: Studies of Investment Approaches and Characteristics Associated with Exceptional Returns.” 1992. <http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundVersionWeb.pdf>.

  11. Yuan, Vera. Guru Focus. “Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Book Value? Which Parameters Are Stock Prices Most Correlated To?”. August 2, 2013. < http://www.gurufocus.com/news/225255/earnings-free-cash-flow-book-value-which-parameters-are-stock-prices-most-correlated-to->.

  12. Fama and French Backtesting http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html

What is the 401(k) plan offered by CarMax?

The 401(k) plan at CarMax is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their paycheck before taxes are taken out, helping them prepare for retirement.

Does CarMax match contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, CarMax offers a matching contribution to employees' 401(k) plans, which helps employees grow their retirement savings even faster.

How much can I contribute to my CarMax 401(k) plan?

Employees at CarMax can contribute up to the IRS annual limit, which is adjusted each year. For 2023, the limit is $22,500, with an additional catch-up contribution for those aged 50 and older.

When can I enroll in the CarMax 401(k) plan?

New employees at CarMax are typically eligible to enroll in the 401(k) plan after completing a waiting period, usually within the first few months of employment.

What investment options are available in the CarMax 401(k) plan?

The CarMax 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to help employees diversify their portfolios.

How does CarMax's matching contribution work?

CarMax matches a percentage of employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, up to a certain limit, which helps employees maximize their retirement savings.

Can I take a loan from my CarMax 401(k) plan?

Yes, CarMax allows employees to take loans from their 401(k) accounts under certain conditions, providing a way to access funds in case of emergencies.

What happens to my CarMax 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave CarMax, you have several options for your 401(k), including rolling it over into an IRA or a new employer's plan, or leaving it in the CarMax plan if permitted.

Is there a vesting schedule for the CarMax 401(k) matching contributions?

Yes, CarMax has a vesting schedule for matching contributions, meaning employees must work for a certain period before they fully own the matched funds.

How can I check my CarMax 401(k) balance?

Employees can check their 401(k) balance through the CarMax benefits portal or by contacting the plan administrator for assistance.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.
Name of Pension Plan: CarMax does not offer a traditional defined benefit pension plan. Instead, CarMax provides retirement benefits primarily through a 401(k) plan. Years of Service and Age Qualification: CarMax does not have a traditional pension plan, so there are no specific qualifications for years of service or age for a pension plan. Pension Formula: There is no pension formula as CarMax does not offer a traditional pension plan. 401(k) Plan Details: Employee Contributions: Employees can contribute a portion of their salary up to the annual IRS limit. Employer Match: CarMax offers a company match up to a certain percentage of the employee's contributions.
Restructuring and Layoffs: In recent months, CarMax has announced a significant restructuring plan, including layoffs across various departments. This move is part of a broader strategy to streamline operations and improve efficiency amid changing market conditions. The layoffs are aimed at reducing overhead costs and reallocating resources to more profitable areas of the business. This restructuring is crucial to address the shifting economic landscape and maintain the company's competitive edge. It’s important for employees and investors to stay informed about these changes due to the current economic volatility, investment uncertainties, and evolving tax and political environments.
CarMax Stock Options (SO) and Restricted Stock Units (RSU): Acronyms: CarMax uses SO for Stock Options and RSU for Restricted Stock Units. Specifics: In 2022, CarMax provided stock options and RSUs to eligible employees, primarily focusing on senior management and key contributors. Availability: Both stock options and RSUs are typically granted as part of the compensation package to high-level executives and sometimes to other employees based on performance and tenure. Acronyms: For CarMax, the acronyms SO and RSU remain consistent. Specifics: In 2023, CarMax continued to offer stock options and RSUs. The grants were aligned with industry standards, aiming to attract and retain talent. Availability: Stock options and RSUs were granted to select employees, with an emphasis on roles critical to the company's strategic goals.
Benefits Overview: CarMax provides a comprehensive benefits package, including medical, dental, and vision insurance. They offer health plans that cover preventive care, medical visits, prescription drugs, and other essential health services. Healthcare Terms/Acronyms: HDHP (High Deductible Health Plan): A plan with higher deductibles and lower premiums, paired with Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). HSA (Health Savings Account): A tax-advantaged savings account used to pay for qualified medical expenses. FSA (Flexible Spending Account): An account allowing employees to use pre-tax dollars for out-of-pocket health expenses.
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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for CarMax at 12800 Tuckahoe Creek Parkway Richmond, VA 23238; or by calling them at +1 800-519-1511.

https://www.irs.gov/ https://www.pbgc.gov/ https://www.businessinsider.com/ https://www.forbes.com/ https://www.reuters.com/ https://www.thelayoff.com/

*Please see disclaimer for more information

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