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Investing Insights for Graybar Electric Employees: The Pros and Cons of Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Contributions

The Value Series

What is Book Value?

Testing

Weighting

The Brandes Research Institute

About The Retirement Group

Sources

The Value Series

Given the current elevated market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics in our four-part series. As an employee or retiree of Graybar Electric, who likely has little market analysis experience, we understand that the valuation process can seem confusing. However, we are here to tell you that the valuation process does not have to be complex to be successful. Simple valuation techniques such as the price-to-book ratio are generally easy to use and have been proven to be effective if utilized correctly. Investors are often looking for ways for their clients to beat the market. If you're one of those investors, you may want to consider the following strategy that has been implemented by the investment greats. Some value investors have historically beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500, and many have successful track records spanning several decades to prove it. Graybar Electric employees, it is important to be knowledgeable regarding tactics used by famous investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. The investment style implemented by these professionals focus on four metrics that characterize a value investment. These four metrics include the Price to Earnings Ratio, the Price to Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and the Price to Book Ratio. These metrics, as you will see, are strong indicators of undervalued security. If undervalued security is brought back to fair value then we would see positive returns on that security. For Graybar Electric employees, it is possible to utilize these metrics to better position yourself in the market for heightened returns. We will examine the effect of investing based off of certain characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated. Today, I want to end the four-part TRG Value Series with the granddaddy of metrics, the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B).

What is Book Value?

Book value is preferred by many value investors to cash flow and earnings metrics because it is more stable year-to-year whereas cash flow and earnings can vary greatly. This is an important property for those at Graybar Electric to look out for due to the following reason: When a business at a cyclical trough with diminished cash flow and earnings might look expensive on the basis of price-to-cash flow or price-to-earnings, that same business may appear cheap on the basis of price-to-book value. This is because book value won’t fall much or at all in a downturn, and vice versa. Thus, the argument goes, the price-to-book value gives a more reliable picture of a company’s usual business performance, which Graybar Electric employees can use to elevate their investment decisions and investment performance. Benjamin Graham popularized the indicator in his books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor”. Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and his research partner Kenneth French used the ratio in their three- and five-factor models to describe stock returns. Professor Joseph Piotroski uses the ratio as the only valuation measure in his F-Score methodology.

Testing

We understand the importance of data driven research for Graybar Electric employees and retirees. Set out below are the results of two Fama and French backtests of the book value-to-market equity (the inverse of the PB ratio) data from 1926 to 2013. As of December 2013, there were 3,175 firms in the sample (Carlisle-PB, P2). The value decile contained the 459 stocks with the highest earnings yield, and the glamour decile contained the 404 stocks with the lowest earnings yield.

The average size of the glamour stocks is $7.48 billion and the value stocks are $2.54 billion. (Note that the average is heavily skewed by the biggest companies. For context, the 3,175th company has a market capitalization today of $404 million, which is smaller than the average, but still investable for most investors). Portfolios are formed on June 30 and rebalanced annually. When accounting for this backtest, Graybar Electric employees may recognize how two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, which means that bigger firms contribute more to the performance of the portfolio, and smaller firms contribute less. Here, we can see that the value decile has comprehensively outperformed the glamour decile, returning 12.6 percent compounded (17.7 percent in the average year) over the full period versus 8.6 percent for the glamour decile (10.9 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PB, P3).

These returns are considerably lower than the returns found for the price-to-earnings and cash-flow ratios discussed earlier. Despite the irregularity, Graybar Electric employees must be aware that the earnings and cash flow back tests ran back to only 1951, and the book value return data begins in 1926. The difference is due to the 1929 crash, which had an oversized impact on returns. The impact of the crash is visible on the chart; it took twenty years for the value decile to fully recover. Graybar Electric employees must also note how something similar has happened to the glamour decile since 2000; it hasn’t grown in 13 years. To make a comparison possible of the book value’s performance to the performance of earnings and cash flow over the same period, I also measured the returns beginning in 1951. Since 1951, the low P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 17.9 percent. Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent (Carlisle-PB, P5). These returns are approximately the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period.

In their study, they found that the quintile of the lowest P/E stocks significantly outperformed the high P/E quintile. The portfolio containing the lowest P/E stock returned 11.61% annualized compared to 4.83% for the highest P/E portfolio and 7.55% for the used universe of stocks. The graph below shows how the cumulative returns compare (it’s not even close). Graybar Electric employees can utilize this information to avoid investing in underperforming assets and better predict economic trends that translate into higher ROI.

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Weighting

It is important for employees and retirees of Graybar Electric to understand how market capitalization-weighted returns are useful for demonstrating that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to the value portfolios containing smaller stocks. Unless you’re running an index (or hugging an index), they’re not really meaningful. The easiest portfolio weighting scheme is to simply equally weight each position. (If we’re prepared to put up with a little extra volatility for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is determined by the Kelly Criterion which is a formula used to determine what percentage of their capital should be used in each trade to maximize long-term growth. There are two key components to the formula (Kelly % = W- [(1 - W) / R]): the winning probability factor (W) and the win/loss ratio (R). The winning probability is the probability a trade will have a positive return. The win/loss ratio is equal to the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trading amounts. The result of the formula will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should apply to each investment. By utilizing the Kelly Weighting, investors employed or retiring from Graybar Electric can have a better grasp of their exposure to each individual asset in their portfolio and make informed decisions regarding their asset allocation.

Graybar Electric employees should also account for the equal weight return statistics for book value. In the equal weight backtest, the value generated a 20.2 percent compounded return (27.3 percent on average), beating out glamour’s 6.3 percent compounded return (10.4 percent on average) (Carlisle-PB, P10). Since 1951 the equally weighted P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 25.4 percent (Carlisle-PB, P11).

Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 6.4 percent and an AAR of 10.8 percent. These returns are close to the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period. When accounting for this information, Graybar Electric employees must recognize that the value portfolios outperformed because they bought more book value per dollar invested than the glamour portfolios: 4.57x on average versus 0.25x in the glamour portfolios (Carlisle-PB, P12). In the equal-weight portfolios, value has significantly outperformed glamour since 1999, beating it by an extraordinary 15.9 percent compounded, and 16.1 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PB, P13).

The Brandes Research Institute

Because we understand just how important data-driven solutions are for our Graybar Electric employees and retirees, we have provided another study, which discusses the P/CF ratio. In a Brandes Research Institute study, Exhibit 6 below illustrates the global all-cap findings across three price metrics.

The results confirmed a consistent value premium across all metrics. We will focus on the P/CF ratio and the outperformance in the decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks can be observed with the P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8).

About The Retirement Group

The Retirement Group is a nation-wide group of financial advisors who work together as a team.

We focus entirely on retirement planning and the design of retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees. Each representative of the group has been hand selected by The Retirement Group in select cities of the United States. Each advisor was selected based on their pension expertise, experience in financial planning, and portfolio construction knowledge.

TRG takes a teamwork approach in providing the best possible solutions for our clients’ concerns. The Team has a conservative investment philosophy and diversifies client portfolios with laddered bonds, CDs, mutual funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks and other investments to help achieve their goals. The team addresses Retirement, Pension, Tax, Asset Allocation, Estate, and Elder Care issues. This document utilizes various research tools and techniques. A variety of assumptions and judgmental elements are inevitably inherent in any attempt to estimate future results and, consequently, such results should be viewed as tentative estimations. Changes in the law, investment climate, interest rates, and personal circumstances will have profound effects on both the accuracy of our estimations and the suitability of our recommendations. The need for ongoing sensitivity to change and for constant re-examination and alteration of the plan is thus apparent.

Therefore, we encourage you to have your plan updated a few months before your potential retirement date as well as an annual review. It should be emphasized that neither The Retirement Group, LLC nor any of its employees can engage in the practice of law or accounting and that nothing in this document should be taken as an effort to do so. We look forward to working with tax and/or legal professionals you may select to discuss the relevant ramifications of our recommendations.

Throughout your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement through our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and regular updates. You may always reach us at (800) 900-5867.

Sources

What to do with an Early Retirement Ebook
Social Security Ebook
Lump Sum vs. Annuity Ebook
401(k) Rollover Strategies Ebook
Closing the Retirement Gap Ebook
Brandes Institute, The. “Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective”. 2014. < https://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective>.
Carlisle, Tobias. “Investing Using the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Earnings Yield (Backtests 1951 to 2013)”. May 26, 2014. <http://greenbackd.com/2014/05/26/price-to-earnings-ratio-backtest-1951-to-2013/>.
Causeway Capital. “The Compelling Case for Value Stocks”. 2018 https://www.causewaycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/201802-TheCompellingCaseforValue-1.pdf
Research Affiliates. “To Win with ‘Smart Beta’, Ask if the Price is Right” September 7, 2016 < https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004564-win-smart-beta-ask-price-right>
Tweedy Browne Company LLC. “What Has Worked in Investing: Studies of Investment Approaches and Characteristics Associated with Exceptional Returns.” 1992. <http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundVersionWeb.pdf>.
Yuan, Vera. Guru Focus. “Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Book Value? Which Parameters Are Stock Prices Most Correlated To?”. August 2, 2013. < http://www.gurufocus.com/news/225255/earnings-free-cash-flow-book-value-which-parameters-are-stock-prices-most-correlated-to->.
Fama and French Backtesting http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html

What steps must an employee take to ensure they accurately calculate their pension benefits when planning for retirement under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995? Employees need to understand the various factors that contribute to benefit calculations, including years of service credits, age, and any early retirement reductions. Participants should also familiarize themselves with the formulas outlined in the plan regarding Normal Retirement and Early Retirement benefits.

Employees under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 can ensure accurate pension calculations by reviewing the plan's formulas, which consider factors like service credits, age, and early retirement reductions. The plan provides specific calculation methods for Normal and Early Retirement pensions, so employees should refer to their accrued credits and apply the appropriate formula based on the years of service to get a precise benefit estimate(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

How does the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, treat periods of active service compared to breaks in service when determining eligibility for pension benefits? Employees should be aware that their length of service is critical to establishing eligibility, and any periods identified as breaks in service may impact their pension status. Understanding the definition and implications of breaks in service can be vital for maximizing retirement benefits.

Service periods under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 are critical for pension eligibility and accrual. Breaks in service, defined as periods where an employee is not credited with at least 250 hours in a plan year, can disrupt benefit accrual and participation. However, the plan provides grace periods for specific situations such as disability or maternity, preventing these gaps from affecting eligibility(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

What are the implications of returning to work after starting to receive benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, and how can it affect ongoing pension payments? It's important for employees to recognize the conditions classified as "Disqualifying Employment" that can lead to suspending their pension benefits. Knowing how working while receiving benefits influences the plan can help retirees make informed decisions about their post-retirement employment.

Returning to work after starting to receive benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 can result in a suspension of benefits if the work qualifies as "Disqualifying Employment." Employees should check the plan’s definitions to see if their employment will affect their pension payments. Generally, working over 40 hours per month in covered employment or similar trades can trigger a suspension(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

In what ways can an employee's spousal status influence the benefits they receive from the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995? Employees need to understand how their marital status affects pension distributions, including survivor benefits and waivers. This knowledge is crucial for planning, as certain benefit structures depend significantly on whether the participant has a qualified spouse.

Spousal status significantly affects the distribution of benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995. If an employee is married, the default pension option is the Joint and Survivor Annuity, which provides a continued payout to the spouse upon the participant’s death. The plan also outlines the necessary waivers and consents required for changing these benefits based on marital status(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

How do changes in the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regulations affect the contribution limits and benefit payouts related to the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995? Employees should keep informed on the most current IRS guidelines, as they directly influence how benefits are calculated and dispersed. Awareness of IRS limits can prevent unexpected tax penalties and ensure compliance with pension law.

IRS regulations play an important role in determining contribution limits and payout structures under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995. Changes to IRS rules may affect the maximum allowable benefits and tax treatments. Employees should keep up to date with IRS guidelines to avoid potential tax penalties and ensure their pension plan remains in compliance(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

What documentation is required for employees to maintain their eligibility for pension benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, especially after significant life events such as marriage, divorce, or disability? Employees must notify the plan office of life changes and provide necessary documentation. Understanding what these documents are and how they should be submitted is crucial for maintaining eligibility and accessing benefits.

Significant life events such as marriage, divorce, or disability require timely submission of documentation to the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 to maintain eligibility. This may include marriage certificates, divorce decrees, or proof of disability. Employees should contact the plan office to ensure all required paperwork is properly submitted to avoid interruptions in benefits(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

What processes are in place for employees to appeal a denial of benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, and what timelines must they adhere to? Employees should be aware of their rights under ERISA concerning claims and appeals, including the time limits for submitting appeals. This knowledge ensures they are equipped to address any potential issues they may encounter during the pension claim process.

If a claim for benefits is denied, the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 provides an appeals process. Employees must file a written appeal within 60 days of receiving the denial notice. The appeal should include any relevant documentation, and employees should follow the timeline and procedures outlined in the plan to ensure proper consideration of their case(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

How can employees determine if their employer is meeting its financial obligation to the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, particularly regarding contributions? Understanding the mechanisms for verifying employer contributions can help employees ensure that they are accruing the appropriate benefits. Employees should know whom to contact and what reports they can access to gather this information.

Employees concerned about their employer meeting its contribution obligations to the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 can contact the plan’s administrative office for verification. The plan allows participants to access contribution reports to confirm that employers are properly crediting their accounts(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

What resources are available through the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, for employees seeking to enhance their understanding of their retirement options and benefits? Employees should seek detailed information provided through the plan documents and know how to access educational resources, such as workshops or one-on-one sessions with plan administrators. Utilizing available resources ensures they are making informed decisions about their retirement.

The Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 offers various resources to help employees understand their retirement options. These include the plan’s summary description, workshops, and individual consultations with plan administrators. Employees should make use of these tools to gain a clear understanding of their pension and plan effectively(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

How can employees contact the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, for additional questions or clarification regarding their retirement benefits or the plan's provisions? It is essential for employees to know how to reach the plan's administrative office or the Board of Trustees for inquiries. Understanding the contact methods, including phone numbers and office addresses, greatly aids in effective communication when navigating retirement planning. These questions are framed to guide employees in understanding their rights and responsibilities as they prepare for retirement under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW

For additional questions or clarification regarding the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, employees can contact the plan's administrative office at the provided phone number or address. The office offers support for all queries related to pension benefits, eligibility, and documentation(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).