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Investing Insights for Hertz Global Holdings Employees: The Pros and Cons of Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Contributions

The Value Series

What is Book Value?

Testing

Weighting

The Brandes Research Institute

About The Retirement Group

Sources

The Value Series

Given the current elevated market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics in our four-part series. As an employee or retiree of Hertz Global Holdings, who likely has little market analysis experience, we understand that the valuation process can seem confusing. However, we are here to tell you that the valuation process does not have to be complex to be successful. Simple valuation techniques such as the price-to-book ratio are generally easy to use and have been proven to be effective if utilized correctly. Investors are often looking for ways for their clients to beat the market. If you're one of those investors, you may want to consider the following strategy that has been implemented by the investment greats. Some value investors have historically beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500, and many have successful track records spanning several decades to prove it. Hertz Global Holdings employees, it is important to be knowledgeable regarding tactics used by famous investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. The investment style implemented by these professionals focus on four metrics that characterize a value investment. These four metrics include the Price to Earnings Ratio, the Price to Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and the Price to Book Ratio. These metrics, as you will see, are strong indicators of undervalued security. If undervalued security is brought back to fair value then we would see positive returns on that security. For Hertz Global Holdings employees, it is possible to utilize these metrics to better position yourself in the market for heightened returns. We will examine the effect of investing based off of certain characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated. Today, I want to end the four-part TRG Value Series with the granddaddy of metrics, the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B).

What is Book Value?

Book value is preferred by many value investors to cash flow and earnings metrics because it is more stable year-to-year whereas cash flow and earnings can vary greatly. This is an important property for those at Hertz Global Holdings to look out for due to the following reason: When a business at a cyclical trough with diminished cash flow and earnings might look expensive on the basis of price-to-cash flow or price-to-earnings, that same business may appear cheap on the basis of price-to-book value. This is because book value won’t fall much or at all in a downturn, and vice versa. Thus, the argument goes, the price-to-book value gives a more reliable picture of a company’s usual business performance, which Hertz Global Holdings employees can use to elevate their investment decisions and investment performance. Benjamin Graham popularized the indicator in his books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor”. Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and his research partner Kenneth French used the ratio in their three- and five-factor models to describe stock returns. Professor Joseph Piotroski uses the ratio as the only valuation measure in his F-Score methodology.

Testing

We understand the importance of data driven research for Hertz Global Holdings employees and retirees. Set out below are the results of two Fama and French backtests of the book value-to-market equity (the inverse of the PB ratio) data from 1926 to 2013. As of December 2013, there were 3,175 firms in the sample (Carlisle-PB, P2). The value decile contained the 459 stocks with the highest earnings yield, and the glamour decile contained the 404 stocks with the lowest earnings yield.

The average size of the glamour stocks is $7.48 billion and the value stocks are $2.54 billion. (Note that the average is heavily skewed by the biggest companies. For context, the 3,175th company has a market capitalization today of $404 million, which is smaller than the average, but still investable for most investors). Portfolios are formed on June 30 and rebalanced annually. When accounting for this backtest, Hertz Global Holdings employees may recognize how two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, which means that bigger firms contribute more to the performance of the portfolio, and smaller firms contribute less. Here, we can see that the value decile has comprehensively outperformed the glamour decile, returning 12.6 percent compounded (17.7 percent in the average year) over the full period versus 8.6 percent for the glamour decile (10.9 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PB, P3).

These returns are considerably lower than the returns found for the price-to-earnings and cash-flow ratios discussed earlier. Despite the irregularity, Hertz Global Holdings employees must be aware that the earnings and cash flow back tests ran back to only 1951, and the book value return data begins in 1926. The difference is due to the 1929 crash, which had an oversized impact on returns. The impact of the crash is visible on the chart; it took twenty years for the value decile to fully recover. Hertz Global Holdings employees must also note how something similar has happened to the glamour decile since 2000; it hasn’t grown in 13 years. To make a comparison possible of the book value’s performance to the performance of earnings and cash flow over the same period, I also measured the returns beginning in 1951. Since 1951, the low P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 17.9 percent. Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent (Carlisle-PB, P5). These returns are approximately the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period.

In their study, they found that the quintile of the lowest P/E stocks significantly outperformed the high P/E quintile. The portfolio containing the lowest P/E stock returned 11.61% annualized compared to 4.83% for the highest P/E portfolio and 7.55% for the used universe of stocks. The graph below shows how the cumulative returns compare (it’s not even close). Hertz Global Holdings employees can utilize this information to avoid investing in underperforming assets and better predict economic trends that translate into higher ROI.

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Weighting

It is important for employees and retirees of Hertz Global Holdings to understand how market capitalization-weighted returns are useful for demonstrating that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to the value portfolios containing smaller stocks. Unless you’re running an index (or hugging an index), they’re not really meaningful. The easiest portfolio weighting scheme is to simply equally weight each position. (If we’re prepared to put up with a little extra volatility for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is determined by the Kelly Criterion which is a formula used to determine what percentage of their capital should be used in each trade to maximize long-term growth. There are two key components to the formula (Kelly % = W- [(1 - W) / R]): the winning probability factor (W) and the win/loss ratio (R). The winning probability is the probability a trade will have a positive return. The win/loss ratio is equal to the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trading amounts. The result of the formula will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should apply to each investment. By utilizing the Kelly Weighting, investors employed or retiring from Hertz Global Holdings can have a better grasp of their exposure to each individual asset in their portfolio and make informed decisions regarding their asset allocation.

Hertz Global Holdings employees should also account for the equal weight return statistics for book value. In the equal weight backtest, the value generated a 20.2 percent compounded return (27.3 percent on average), beating out glamour’s 6.3 percent compounded return (10.4 percent on average) (Carlisle-PB, P10). Since 1951 the equally weighted P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 25.4 percent (Carlisle-PB, P11).

Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 6.4 percent and an AAR of 10.8 percent. These returns are close to the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period. When accounting for this information, Hertz Global Holdings employees must recognize that the value portfolios outperformed because they bought more book value per dollar invested than the glamour portfolios: 4.57x on average versus 0.25x in the glamour portfolios (Carlisle-PB, P12). In the equal-weight portfolios, value has significantly outperformed glamour since 1999, beating it by an extraordinary 15.9 percent compounded, and 16.1 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PB, P13).

The Brandes Research Institute

Because we understand just how important data-driven solutions are for our Hertz Global Holdings employees and retirees, we have provided another study, which discusses the P/CF ratio. In a Brandes Research Institute study, Exhibit 6 below illustrates the global all-cap findings across three price metrics.

The results confirmed a consistent value premium across all metrics. We will focus on the P/CF ratio and the outperformance in the decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks can be observed with the P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8).

About The Retirement Group

The Retirement Group is a nation-wide group of financial advisors who work together as a team.

We focus entirely on retirement planning and the design of retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees. Each representative of the group has been hand selected by The Retirement Group in select cities of the United States. Each advisor was selected based on their pension expertise, experience in financial planning, and portfolio construction knowledge.

TRG takes a teamwork approach in providing the best possible solutions for our clients’ concerns. The Team has a conservative investment philosophy and diversifies client portfolios with laddered bonds, CDs, mutual funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks and other investments to help achieve their goals. The team addresses Retirement, Pension, Tax, Asset Allocation, Estate, and Elder Care issues. This document utilizes various research tools and techniques. A variety of assumptions and judgmental elements are inevitably inherent in any attempt to estimate future results and, consequently, such results should be viewed as tentative estimations. Changes in the law, investment climate, interest rates, and personal circumstances will have profound effects on both the accuracy of our estimations and the suitability of our recommendations. The need for ongoing sensitivity to change and for constant re-examination and alteration of the plan is thus apparent.

Therefore, we encourage you to have your plan updated a few months before your potential retirement date as well as an annual review. It should be emphasized that neither The Retirement Group, LLC nor any of its employees can engage in the practice of law or accounting and that nothing in this document should be taken as an effort to do so. We look forward to working with tax and/or legal professionals you may select to discuss the relevant ramifications of our recommendations.

Throughout your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement through our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and regular updates. You may always reach us at (800) 900-5867.

Sources

What to do with an Early Retirement Ebook
Social Security Ebook
Lump Sum vs. Annuity Ebook
401(k) Rollover Strategies Ebook
Closing the Retirement Gap Ebook
Brandes Institute, The. “Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective”. 2014. < https://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective>.
Carlisle, Tobias. “Investing Using the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Earnings Yield (Backtests 1951 to 2013)”. May 26, 2014. <http://greenbackd.com/2014/05/26/price-to-earnings-ratio-backtest-1951-to-2013/>.
Causeway Capital. “The Compelling Case for Value Stocks”. 2018 https://www.causewaycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/201802-TheCompellingCaseforValue-1.pdf
Research Affiliates. “To Win with ‘Smart Beta’, Ask if the Price is Right” September 7, 2016 < https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004564-win-smart-beta-ask-price-right>
Tweedy Browne Company LLC. “What Has Worked in Investing: Studies of Investment Approaches and Characteristics Associated with Exceptional Returns.” 1992. <http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundVersionWeb.pdf>.
Yuan, Vera. Guru Focus. “Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Book Value? Which Parameters Are Stock Prices Most Correlated To?”. August 2, 2013. < http://www.gurufocus.com/news/225255/earnings-free-cash-flow-book-value-which-parameters-are-stock-prices-most-correlated-to->.
Fama and French Backtesting http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html

How does The Hertz Corporation's pension plan ensure that employees are fairly compensated for their years of service, and what specific criteria does The Hertz Corporation use to determine eligibility for benefits under the Account Balance Defined Benefit Pension Plan?

Fair Compensation for Years of Service: The Hertz Corporation's pension plan ensures employees are fairly compensated for their years of service by granting Compensation Credits as a percentage of eligible pay. Eligibility for benefits starts once employees have at least 1,000 Hours of Service in a 12-month period, ensuring that benefits are proportional to service time. Benefits become vested after three years of service, securing an employee’s accumulated benefits.

In what ways do the Compensation Credits and Interest Credits contribute to the growth of an employee's retirement account within The Hertz Corporation's pension plan, and how does the company guarantee these credits are applied accurately throughout an employeeâ€™s tenure?

Growth of Retirement Account: Within The Hertz Corporation's pension plan, Compensation Credits and Interest Credits contribute to the growth of an employee's retirement account. Compensation Credits are calculated as a percentage of the employee’s eligible pay, and Interest Credits grow the account balance annually based on a preset rate, ensuring a systematic increase in the retirement funds over an employee's tenure.

What are the implications of the freeze date on participation in The Hertz Corporation's pension plan, and how might this affect current employees who are considering their retirement options within the next few years?

Implications of Freeze Date: The freeze date impacts current employees by discontinuing the accrual of new Compensation Credits. Employees enrolled in the plan before the freeze date retain their accrued benefits, but no new benefits will be added post-freeze. This could influence current employees' decisions on retirement timing and financial planning.

How does The Hertz Corporation handle claims for pension benefits, and what processes are in place for employees to appeal denied claims according to the guidelines set out in the Account Balance Defined Benefit Pension Plan?

Claims for Pension Benefits: The Hertz Corporation handles claims for pension benefits through a detailed procedure where employees can file a claim with the Committee. If denied, the employee can appeal the decision. This process ensures that employees have a structured avenue for resolving disputes regarding their pension benefits.

Under what circumstances can an employee of The Hertz Corporation be considered fully vested, and how does vesting impact an employee's future retirement benefits?

Vesting and Impact on Retirement Benefits: Employees of The Hertz Corporation are considered fully vested in their pension benefits after three years of service, which secures their right to pension benefits accrued till that point. Vesting ensures that upon leaving the company, employees are entitled to their accumulated benefits, directly impacting their financial stability in retirement.

How do The Hertz Corporation's pension benefits compare to other companies in the industry, especially in terms of contribution percentages and payment options available upon retirement?

Comparison with Industry Standards: The pension benefits at The Hertz Corporation, which include both Compensation and Interest Credits, are competitive within the industry, particularly because the company covers the full cost of the plan. The option to receive benefits as a lump sum or an annuity upon retirement provides flexibility compared to other industry plans.

Can you explain the process and the timeline involved for receiving pension benefits after retirement from The Hertz Corporation, including any choices that the retiree must make regarding payout methods?

Receiving Pension Benefits Post-Retirement: The timeline and process for receiving pension benefits after retirement involve choosing a payout method (lump sum or annuity) and filing a claim. Benefits can start as early as age 55 for early retirement, or at the normal retirement age of 65, with the account continuing to accrue Interest Credits until the benefits commence.

What resources does The Hertz Corporation provide to employees looking to understand their rights and benefits under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), and how can this information assist employees in making informed retirement decisions?

Resources on ERISA Rights: The Hertz Corporation provides resources to help employees understand their rights under ERISA through its pension plan website and support center. This information helps employees make informed decisions about their retirement planning by clarifying their rights and benefits under the plan.

What procedures should an employee at The Hertz Corporation follow to update their personal information or beneficiary designations in their pension account, and why is it crucial to keep this information up to date?

Updating Personal Information: Employees at The Hertz Corporation are encouraged to update their personal and beneficiary information via the Hertz Pension Center website. Keeping information current is crucial for ensuring that all communications and benefits are correctly handled, especially for claims and beneficiary designations.

If employees of The Hertz Corporation have questions or require further information regarding the pension plan, what steps should they take to contact the company, and what information will they need to facilitate their inquiry?

Contacting for Further Information: For further inquiries about the pension plan, employees should contact the Hertz Pension Center. This center provides access to plan details and assistance for any additional information required by employees, ensuring transparency and accessibility in managing their retirement benefits.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Hertz Global Holdings Pension Plan Name of Pension Plan: Hertz Global Holdings Pension Plan Years of Service and Age Qualification: Employees are eligible for the pension plan if they have a minimum of 5 years of service and are at least 55 years old. Pension Formula: The pension benefit is calculated based on the employee's years of service and their average salary over the highest 5 consecutive years. Source Document and Page Number: Hertz Global Holdings 2022 Annual Report, Page 34. Hertz Global Holdings 401(k) Plan Name of 401(k) Plan: Hertz Global Holdings 401(k) Plan Eligibility: Employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan immediately upon hire. Contribution Details: Hertz Global Holdings matches employee contributions up to 6% of the employee’s salary.

Restructuring and Layoffs: Hertz Global Holdings has undergone significant restructuring in 2023, which included a series of layoffs aimed at streamlining operations and reducing costs. This restructuring aligns with their strategy to better position the company for future growth amid a challenging economic environment. It is crucial to address this news due to the current economic uncertainties and evolving investment landscape, as these changes can have a direct impact on the company's stability and employee security. Benefit Changes: Hertz has also adjusted its employee benefit plans, including modifications to health insurance and retirement contributions. These changes are part of a broader effort to manage costs and adapt to shifting market conditions. The adjustments to benefits are important to note because they reflect broader trends in corporate benefit strategies and can influence employees' financial planning and overall job satisfaction.

Hertz Global Holdings provides stock options and RSUs as part of its employee compensation packages. These financial incentives are designed to attract and retain talent by offering shares or the right to purchase shares at a set price. Typically, these are outlined in the company's annual reports or SEC filings. Hertz Global Holdings offers stock options and RSUs under its equity incentive plans. The details of these plans, including the number of shares and vesting schedules, are outlined in the company’s SEC filings. Employees in specific roles or levels may qualify for these benefits. Hertz Global Holdings often includes details about stock options and RSUs in its financial disclosures. This information is available in the company's annual reports and Form 10-K filings. The specifics of the grants, including vesting conditions and eligibility, are detailed in these documents.

Hertz Global Holdings Official Site: The official website typically provides general benefits information, including healthcare coverage. Key benefits include medical, dental, and vision insurance options. They also offer flexible spending accounts (FSAs) and health savings accounts (HSAs). Glassdoor: Employee Reviews: Reviews on Glassdoor often mention the company's healthcare benefits. For Hertz, employees have reported competitive health insurance plans with comprehensive coverage. They highlight benefits such as access to major networks and coverage for preventive care. Indeed: Company Benefits: Indeed lists employee feedback and detailed information about health benefits. Hertz employees have noted that the company provides a robust benefits package, including health insurance with options for various plans and coverage levels. LinkedIn: Company Updates: Hertz posts updates about their benefits and wellness programs on LinkedIn. Recent posts indicate that Hertz has focused on enhancing mental health support and telemedicine services as part of their employee benefits. Benefits Administration Sites: Third-Party Benefits Administration: Some third-party sites offer detailed breakdowns of Hertz’s benefits packages, including the specifics of medical, dental, and vision plans. They often include information on coverage levels, co-pays, and deductibles.