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Investing Insights for NiSource Employees: The Pros and Cons of Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Contributions

Healthcare Provider Update: NiSource provides employees with a variety of health insurance options including PPO, HMO, and high-deductible plans with HSAs. Dental and vision coverage is available, along with FSAs for healthcare and dependent care. Life insurance equal to twice base pay is company-paid, with options to purchase additional coverage. Disability benefits, accident insurance, and paid sick leave are also included. Retirement benefits feature a 401(k) plan with matching, and employees may receive opt-out credits if they decline coverage 2. NiSource As ACA premiums rise, NiSources employer-sponsored plans and pre-tax savings accounts offer employees a more affordable and stable alternative to marketplace coverage. With insurers requesting double-digit increases and federal subsidies potentially expiring, employer-backed plans like NiSources help shield employees from steep out-of-pocket costs. Click here to learn more

The Value Series

What is Book Value?

Testing

Weighting

The Brandes Research Institute

About The Retirement Group

Sources

The Value Series

Given the current elevated market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics in our four-part series. As an employee or retiree of NiSource, who likely has little market analysis experience, we understand that the valuation process can seem confusing. However, we are here to tell you that the valuation process does not have to be complex to be successful. Simple valuation techniques such as the price-to-book ratio are generally easy to use and have been proven to be effective if utilized correctly. Investors are often looking for ways for their clients to beat the market. If you're one of those investors, you may want to consider the following strategy that has been implemented by the investment greats. Some value investors have historically beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500, and many have successful track records spanning several decades to prove it. NiSource employees, it is important to be knowledgeable regarding tactics used by famous investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. The investment style implemented by these professionals focus on four metrics that characterize a value investment. These four metrics include the Price to Earnings Ratio, the Price to Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and the Price to Book Ratio. These metrics, as you will see, are strong indicators of undervalued security. If undervalued security is brought back to fair value then we would see positive returns on that security. For NiSource employees, it is possible to utilize these metrics to better position yourself in the market for heightened returns. We will examine the effect of investing based off of certain characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated. Today, I want to end the four-part TRG Value Series with the granddaddy of metrics, the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B).

What is Book Value?

Book value is preferred by many value investors to cash flow and earnings metrics because it is more stable year-to-year whereas cash flow and earnings can vary greatly. This is an important property for those at NiSource to look out for due to the following reason: When a business at a cyclical trough with diminished cash flow and earnings might look expensive on the basis of price-to-cash flow or price-to-earnings, that same business may appear cheap on the basis of price-to-book value. This is because book value won’t fall much or at all in a downturn, and vice versa. Thus, the argument goes, the price-to-book value gives a more reliable picture of a company’s usual business performance, which NiSource employees can use to elevate their investment decisions and investment performance. Benjamin Graham popularized the indicator in his books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor”. Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and his research partner Kenneth French used the ratio in their three- and five-factor models to describe stock returns. Professor Joseph Piotroski uses the ratio as the only valuation measure in his F-Score methodology.

Testing

We understand the importance of data driven research for NiSource employees and retirees. Set out below are the results of two Fama and French backtests of the book value-to-market equity (the inverse of the PB ratio) data from 1926 to 2013. As of December 2013, there were 3,175 firms in the sample (Carlisle-PB, P2). The value decile contained the 459 stocks with the highest earnings yield, and the glamour decile contained the 404 stocks with the lowest earnings yield.

The average size of the glamour stocks is $7.48 billion and the value stocks are $2.54 billion. (Note that the average is heavily skewed by the biggest companies. For context, the 3,175th company has a market capitalization today of $404 million, which is smaller than the average, but still investable for most investors). Portfolios are formed on June 30 and rebalanced annually. When accounting for this backtest, NiSource employees may recognize how two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, which means that bigger firms contribute more to the performance of the portfolio, and smaller firms contribute less. Here, we can see that the value decile has comprehensively outperformed the glamour decile, returning 12.6 percent compounded (17.7 percent in the average year) over the full period versus 8.6 percent for the glamour decile (10.9 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PB, P3).

These returns are considerably lower than the returns found for the price-to-earnings and cash-flow ratios discussed earlier. Despite the irregularity, NiSource employees must be aware that the earnings and cash flow back tests ran back to only 1951, and the book value return data begins in 1926. The difference is due to the 1929 crash, which had an oversized impact on returns. The impact of the crash is visible on the chart; it took twenty years for the value decile to fully recover. NiSource employees must also note how something similar has happened to the glamour decile since 2000; it hasn’t grown in 13 years. To make a comparison possible of the book value’s performance to the performance of earnings and cash flow over the same period, I also measured the returns beginning in 1951. Since 1951, the low P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 17.9 percent. Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent (Carlisle-PB, P5). These returns are approximately the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period.

In their study, they found that the quintile of the lowest P/E stocks significantly outperformed the high P/E quintile. The portfolio containing the lowest P/E stock returned 11.61% annualized compared to 4.83% for the highest P/E portfolio and 7.55% for the used universe of stocks. The graph below shows how the cumulative returns compare (it’s not even close). NiSource employees can utilize this information to avoid investing in underperforming assets and better predict economic trends that translate into higher ROI.

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Weighting

It is important for employees and retirees of NiSource to understand how market capitalization-weighted returns are useful for demonstrating that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to the value portfolios containing smaller stocks. Unless you’re running an index (or hugging an index), they’re not really meaningful. The easiest portfolio weighting scheme is to simply equally weight each position. (If we’re prepared to put up with a little extra volatility for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is determined by the Kelly Criterion which is a formula used to determine what percentage of their capital should be used in each trade to maximize long-term growth. There are two key components to the formula (Kelly % = W- [(1 - W) / R]): the winning probability factor (W) and the win/loss ratio (R). The winning probability is the probability a trade will have a positive return. The win/loss ratio is equal to the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trading amounts. The result of the formula will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should apply to each investment. By utilizing the Kelly Weighting, investors employed or retiring from NiSource can have a better grasp of their exposure to each individual asset in their portfolio and make informed decisions regarding their asset allocation.

NiSource employees should also account for the equal weight return statistics for book value. In the equal weight backtest, the value generated a 20.2 percent compounded return (27.3 percent on average), beating out glamour’s 6.3 percent compounded return (10.4 percent on average) (Carlisle-PB, P10). Since 1951 the equally weighted P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 25.4 percent (Carlisle-PB, P11).

Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 6.4 percent and an AAR of 10.8 percent. These returns are close to the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period. When accounting for this information, NiSource employees must recognize that the value portfolios outperformed because they bought more book value per dollar invested than the glamour portfolios: 4.57x on average versus 0.25x in the glamour portfolios (Carlisle-PB, P12). In the equal-weight portfolios, value has significantly outperformed glamour since 1999, beating it by an extraordinary 15.9 percent compounded, and 16.1 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PB, P13).

The Brandes Research Institute

Because we understand just how important data-driven solutions are for our NiSource employees and retirees, we have provided another study, which discusses the P/CF ratio. In a Brandes Research Institute study, Exhibit 6 below illustrates the global all-cap findings across three price metrics.

The results confirmed a consistent value premium across all metrics. We will focus on the P/CF ratio and the outperformance in the decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks can be observed with the P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8).

About The Retirement Group

The Retirement Group is a nation-wide group of financial advisors who work together as a team.

We focus entirely on retirement planning and the design of retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees. Each representative of the group has been hand selected by The Retirement Group in select cities of the United States. Each advisor was selected based on their pension expertise, experience in financial planning, and portfolio construction knowledge.

TRG takes a teamwork approach in providing the best possible solutions for our clients’ concerns. The Team has a conservative investment philosophy and diversifies client portfolios with laddered bonds, CDs, mutual funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks and other investments to help achieve their goals. The team addresses Retirement, Pension, Tax, Asset Allocation, Estate, and Elder Care issues. This document utilizes various research tools and techniques. A variety of assumptions and judgmental elements are inevitably inherent in any attempt to estimate future results and, consequently, such results should be viewed as tentative estimations. Changes in the law, investment climate, interest rates, and personal circumstances will have profound effects on both the accuracy of our estimations and the suitability of our recommendations. The need for ongoing sensitivity to change and for constant re-examination and alteration of the plan is thus apparent.

Therefore, we encourage you to have your plan updated a few months before your potential retirement date as well as an annual review. It should be emphasized that neither The Retirement Group, LLC nor any of its employees can engage in the practice of law or accounting and that nothing in this document should be taken as an effort to do so. We look forward to working with tax and/or legal professionals you may select to discuss the relevant ramifications of our recommendations.

Throughout your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement through our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and regular updates. You may always reach us at (800) 900-5867.

Sources

What to do with an Early Retirement Ebook
Social Security Ebook
Lump Sum vs. Annuity Ebook
401(k) Rollover Strategies Ebook
Closing the Retirement Gap Ebook
Brandes Institute, The. “Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective”. 2014. < https://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective>.
Carlisle, Tobias. “Investing Using the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Earnings Yield (Backtests 1951 to 2013)”. May 26, 2014. <http://greenbackd.com/2014/05/26/price-to-earnings-ratio-backtest-1951-to-2013/>.
Causeway Capital. “The Compelling Case for Value Stocks”. 2018 https://www.causewaycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/201802-TheCompellingCaseforValue-1.pdf
Research Affiliates. “To Win with ‘Smart Beta’, Ask if the Price is Right” September 7, 2016 < https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004564-win-smart-beta-ask-price-right>
Tweedy Browne Company LLC. “What Has Worked in Investing: Studies of Investment Approaches and Characteristics Associated with Exceptional Returns.” 1992. <http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundVersionWeb.pdf>.
Yuan, Vera. Guru Focus. “Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Book Value? Which Parameters Are Stock Prices Most Correlated To?”. August 2, 2013. < http://www.gurufocus.com/news/225255/earnings-free-cash-flow-book-value-which-parameters-are-stock-prices-most-correlated-to->.
Fama and French Backtesting http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html

As an employee of National Grid, what are the key eligibility criteria for participating in the Pension Plan specifically for Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation employees? How might these criteria impact your personal retirement planning and the benefits you expect to receive upon retirement from National Grid?

Eligibility Criteria for Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan: Employees of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation who are represented by Local Union 97 of the IBEW and work at least 20 hours per week or accumulate 1,000 hours in a Pension Plan year are eligible. Participation begins automatically on the first day of employment. These criteria directly impact retirement planning by determining when employees begin accruing pension benefits and how much they will receive at retirement(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

Within the framework of the National Grid Pension Plan, how does the cash balance formula work in calculating retirement benefits, and what implications does this have for employees of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation when considering their long-term financial outlook?

Cash Balance Formula: The National Grid Pension Plan for Niagara Mohawk employees uses a cash balance formula that provides monthly pay-based credits (starting at 4% and increasing with years of service) and interest credits. These accumulate in a hypothetical account, growing until retirement, allowing employees to track their retirement benefits much like a savings account. This formula impacts financial outlook by providing predictable growth tied to service and pay(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

For employees at National Grid, what are the specific rights and options available during the pension benefit application process? How do these rights protect the interests of individual employees and ensure they receive fair treatment under the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan?

Pension Benefit Application Process: National Grid employees must apply for their pension benefits by submitting the required forms at least 90 days before retirement. Spousal consent is required if opting for any form of payment other than the default. This ensures employees understand and select the best payment option for their circumstances, protecting their interests under the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

Given the different types of credits that contribute to the pension benefit for employees of National Grid, how are Pay-based Credits and interest credits calculated? What strategies might Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation employees employ to maximize these credits before retirement?

Pay-based and Interest Credits Calculation: Pay-based credits are determined by years of service, starting at 4% of pay and increasing to 8% after 20 years. Interest credits are based on an annual interest rate tied to the Treasury securities and corporate bond rates. Employees can maximize these credits by continuing to work and contributing to their pension balance(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

How do pension benefits work for Transition Group Employees specifically within National Grid's framework, and what unique provisions apply to them under the Pension Plan as compared to regular employees of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation?

Pension Benefits for Transition Group Employees: Transition Group Employees under the National Grid Pension Plan have benefits calculated using both the former final average pay formula and the cash balance formula, with the greater benefit being paid out. This differs from regular employees who only receive benefits calculated under the cash balance formula(National_Grid_2023_Niag…)(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

What are the repercussions for National Grid employees in terms of benefit loss or limitation if they have not met the Vesting requirements under the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan? How can understanding these repercussions influence an employee's decision-making regarding their career and retirement?

Impact of Vesting Requirements: Employees must complete three years of service to become vested in the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan. If they leave before vesting, they lose all accrued pension benefits. Understanding vesting requirements is crucial for career and retirement planning, as it ensures employees retain their pension benefits if they meet the criteria(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

As a current employee at National Grid, what does the termination of the Pension Plan imply for accrued benefits under the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan? Specifically, how do federal protections through ERISA and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation come into play for employees seeking assurance regarding their retirement funds?

Termination of Pension Plan and Federal Protections: If the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan is terminated, accrued benefits are protected by ERISA and insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). Employees can feel assured that their benefits will be secured up to the PBGC's limits in case of plan termination(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

How does the National Grid Pension Plan accommodate the unique situations of employees during times of disability or military service, and what steps should Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation employees take to ensure their benefits continue during these periods?

Disability and Military Service: Niagara Mohawk employees receive service credits during periods of disability or military leave, ensuring continuous pension accrual. Employees should ensure their disability or military status is properly documented with the company to avoid interruptions in their pension benefits(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

When considering the various forms of pension payments available to retirees from National Grid, what are the potential advantages and disadvantages of choosing an annuity versus a lump-sum payment for employees from Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation?

Annuity vs. Lump-Sum Payment: Retirees at National Grid have the option to choose between an annuity, providing a steady income for life, or a lump-sum payment. The annuity provides financial stability, while a lump sum offers flexibility. The choice depends on individual financial needs and retirement goals(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

For those looking to gain further clarity on the nuances of the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan, what are the most effective ways for employees to contact National Grid for assistance? How can engaging with the Pension Service Center enhance an employee's understanding of their benefits and rights?

Contacting National Grid for Pension Assistance: Employees seeking more information about their Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan can contact the National Grid Pension Service Center or use the online pension modeler. Engaging with the Pension Service Center provides personalized guidance, helping employees understand their benefits and make informed decisions(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).