New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Investing Insights for Resolute Forest Products Employees: The Pros and Cons of Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Contributions

Healthcare Provider Update: Resolute Forest Products offers health insurance benefits that include enhanced dental and vision coverage, life insurance, and long-term disability. Recent union agreements have increased benefit amounts and added vacation time. Employees also have access to a benefits portal for managing coverage and making changes during open enrollment 8. Healthcare costs in the United States are projected to continue rising through 2026, with insurers proposing significant premium increases for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans. A recent analysis found that ACA insurers are seeking a median premium increase of 15% for 2026, marking the largest hike since 2018. This surge is attributed to factors such as the anticipated expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, rising medical costsincluding expensive medications and increased hospital staysand a shift in the risk pool towards higher-cost enrollees. Without the renewal of enhanced subsidies, out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees could increase by more than 75% on average. Click here to learn more

The Value Series

What is Book Value?

Testing

Weighting

The Brandes Research Institute

About The Retirement Group

Sources

The Value Series

Given the current elevated market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics in our four-part series. As an employee or retiree of Resolute Forest Products, who likely has little market analysis experience, we understand that the valuation process can seem confusing. However, we are here to tell you that the valuation process does not have to be complex to be successful. Simple valuation techniques such as the price-to-book ratio are generally easy to use and have been proven to be effective if utilized correctly. Investors are often looking for ways for their clients to beat the market. If you're one of those investors, you may want to consider the following strategy that has been implemented by the investment greats. Some value investors have historically beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500, and many have successful track records spanning several decades to prove it. Resolute Forest Products employees, it is important to be knowledgeable regarding tactics used by famous investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. The investment style implemented by these professionals focus on four metrics that characterize a value investment. These four metrics include the Price to Earnings Ratio, the Price to Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and the Price to Book Ratio. These metrics, as you will see, are strong indicators of undervalued security. If undervalued security is brought back to fair value then we would see positive returns on that security. For Resolute Forest Products employees, it is possible to utilize these metrics to better position yourself in the market for heightened returns. We will examine the effect of investing based off of certain characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated. Today, I want to end the four-part TRG Value Series with the granddaddy of metrics, the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B).

What is Book Value?

Book value is preferred by many value investors to cash flow and earnings metrics because it is more stable year-to-year whereas cash flow and earnings can vary greatly. This is an important property for those at Resolute Forest Products to look out for due to the following reason: When a business at a cyclical trough with diminished cash flow and earnings might look expensive on the basis of price-to-cash flow or price-to-earnings, that same business may appear cheap on the basis of price-to-book value. This is because book value won’t fall much or at all in a downturn, and vice versa. Thus, the argument goes, the price-to-book value gives a more reliable picture of a company’s usual business performance, which Resolute Forest Products employees can use to elevate their investment decisions and investment performance. Benjamin Graham popularized the indicator in his books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor”. Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and his research partner Kenneth French used the ratio in their three- and five-factor models to describe stock returns. Professor Joseph Piotroski uses the ratio as the only valuation measure in his F-Score methodology.

Testing

We understand the importance of data driven research for Resolute Forest Products employees and retirees. Set out below are the results of two Fama and French backtests of the book value-to-market equity (the inverse of the PB ratio) data from 1926 to 2013. As of December 2013, there were 3,175 firms in the sample (Carlisle-PB, P2). The value decile contained the 459 stocks with the highest earnings yield, and the glamour decile contained the 404 stocks with the lowest earnings yield.

The average size of the glamour stocks is $7.48 billion and the value stocks are $2.54 billion. (Note that the average is heavily skewed by the biggest companies. For context, the 3,175th company has a market capitalization today of $404 million, which is smaller than the average, but still investable for most investors). Portfolios are formed on June 30 and rebalanced annually. When accounting for this backtest, Resolute Forest Products employees may recognize how two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, which means that bigger firms contribute more to the performance of the portfolio, and smaller firms contribute less. Here, we can see that the value decile has comprehensively outperformed the glamour decile, returning 12.6 percent compounded (17.7 percent in the average year) over the full period versus 8.6 percent for the glamour decile (10.9 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PB, P3).

These returns are considerably lower than the returns found for the price-to-earnings and cash-flow ratios discussed earlier. Despite the irregularity, Resolute Forest Products employees must be aware that the earnings and cash flow back tests ran back to only 1951, and the book value return data begins in 1926. The difference is due to the 1929 crash, which had an oversized impact on returns. The impact of the crash is visible on the chart; it took twenty years for the value decile to fully recover. Resolute Forest Products employees must also note how something similar has happened to the glamour decile since 2000; it hasn’t grown in 13 years. To make a comparison possible of the book value’s performance to the performance of earnings and cash flow over the same period, I also measured the returns beginning in 1951. Since 1951, the low P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 17.9 percent. Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent (Carlisle-PB, P5). These returns are approximately the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period.

In their study, they found that the quintile of the lowest P/E stocks significantly outperformed the high P/E quintile. The portfolio containing the lowest P/E stock returned 11.61% annualized compared to 4.83% for the highest P/E portfolio and 7.55% for the used universe of stocks. The graph below shows how the cumulative returns compare (it’s not even close). Resolute Forest Products employees can utilize this information to avoid investing in underperforming assets and better predict economic trends that translate into higher ROI.

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Weighting

It is important for employees and retirees of Resolute Forest Products to understand how market capitalization-weighted returns are useful for demonstrating that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to the value portfolios containing smaller stocks. Unless you’re running an index (or hugging an index), they’re not really meaningful. The easiest portfolio weighting scheme is to simply equally weight each position. (If we’re prepared to put up with a little extra volatility for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is determined by the Kelly Criterion which is a formula used to determine what percentage of their capital should be used in each trade to maximize long-term growth. There are two key components to the formula (Kelly % = W- [(1 - W) / R]): the winning probability factor (W) and the win/loss ratio (R). The winning probability is the probability a trade will have a positive return. The win/loss ratio is equal to the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trading amounts. The result of the formula will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should apply to each investment. By utilizing the Kelly Weighting, investors employed or retiring from Resolute Forest Products can have a better grasp of their exposure to each individual asset in their portfolio and make informed decisions regarding their asset allocation.

Resolute Forest Products employees should also account for the equal weight return statistics for book value. In the equal weight backtest, the value generated a 20.2 percent compounded return (27.3 percent on average), beating out glamour’s 6.3 percent compounded return (10.4 percent on average) (Carlisle-PB, P10). Since 1951 the equally weighted P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 25.4 percent (Carlisle-PB, P11).

Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 6.4 percent and an AAR of 10.8 percent. These returns are close to the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period. When accounting for this information, Resolute Forest Products employees must recognize that the value portfolios outperformed because they bought more book value per dollar invested than the glamour portfolios: 4.57x on average versus 0.25x in the glamour portfolios (Carlisle-PB, P12). In the equal-weight portfolios, value has significantly outperformed glamour since 1999, beating it by an extraordinary 15.9 percent compounded, and 16.1 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PB, P13).

The Brandes Research Institute

Because we understand just how important data-driven solutions are for our Resolute Forest Products employees and retirees, we have provided another study, which discusses the P/CF ratio. In a Brandes Research Institute study, Exhibit 6 below illustrates the global all-cap findings across three price metrics.

The results confirmed a consistent value premium across all metrics. We will focus on the P/CF ratio and the outperformance in the decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks can be observed with the P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8).

About The Retirement Group

The Retirement Group is a nation-wide group of financial advisors who work together as a team.

We focus entirely on retirement planning and the design of retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees. Each representative of the group has been hand selected by The Retirement Group in select cities of the United States. Each advisor was selected based on their pension expertise, experience in financial planning, and portfolio construction knowledge.

TRG takes a teamwork approach in providing the best possible solutions for our clients’ concerns. The Team has a conservative investment philosophy and diversifies client portfolios with laddered bonds, CDs, mutual funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks and other investments to help achieve their goals. The team addresses Retirement, Pension, Tax, Asset Allocation, Estate, and Elder Care issues. This document utilizes various research tools and techniques. A variety of assumptions and judgmental elements are inevitably inherent in any attempt to estimate future results and, consequently, such results should be viewed as tentative estimations. Changes in the law, investment climate, interest rates, and personal circumstances will have profound effects on both the accuracy of our estimations and the suitability of our recommendations. The need for ongoing sensitivity to change and for constant re-examination and alteration of the plan is thus apparent.

Therefore, we encourage you to have your plan updated a few months before your potential retirement date as well as an annual review. It should be emphasized that neither The Retirement Group, LLC nor any of its employees can engage in the practice of law or accounting and that nothing in this document should be taken as an effort to do so. We look forward to working with tax and/or legal professionals you may select to discuss the relevant ramifications of our recommendations.

Throughout your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement through our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and regular updates. You may always reach us at (800) 900-5867.

Sources

What to do with an Early Retirement Ebook
Social Security Ebook
Lump Sum vs. Annuity Ebook
401(k) Rollover Strategies Ebook
Closing the Retirement Gap Ebook
Brandes Institute, The. “Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective”. 2014. < https://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective>.
Carlisle, Tobias. “Investing Using the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Earnings Yield (Backtests 1951 to 2013)”. May 26, 2014. <http://greenbackd.com/2014/05/26/price-to-earnings-ratio-backtest-1951-to-2013/>.
Causeway Capital. “The Compelling Case for Value Stocks”. 2018 https://www.causewaycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/201802-TheCompellingCaseforValue-1.pdf
Research Affiliates. “To Win with ‘Smart Beta’, Ask if the Price is Right” September 7, 2016 < https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004564-win-smart-beta-ask-price-right>
Tweedy Browne Company LLC. “What Has Worked in Investing: Studies of Investment Approaches and Characteristics Associated with Exceptional Returns.” 1992. <http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundVersionWeb.pdf>.
Yuan, Vera. Guru Focus. “Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Book Value? Which Parameters Are Stock Prices Most Correlated To?”. August 2, 2013. < http://www.gurufocus.com/news/225255/earnings-free-cash-flow-book-value-which-parameters-are-stock-prices-most-correlated-to->.
Fama and French Backtesting http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html

How does the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan interact with other retirement savings options that employees may have? Employees at the Pulp and Paper Industry are encouraged to understand the implications of their pension benefits when considering their overall retirement strategy. Given the complexity of retirement planning, how should one factor in the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan alongside personal savings, employer-matched contributions, and other investment accounts?

Pension Plan Interaction with Other Retirement Savings: Employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry should consider the Pension Plan as a foundational part of their overall retirement strategy. When planning for retirement, it's crucial to balance the pension benefits alongside personal savings, employer-matched contributions, and other investment accounts such as RRSPs or TFSAs. The Pension Plan, contributing a stable retirement income, can complement more flexible savings vehicles that provide additional liquidity and growth potential, especially considering tax implications and withdrawal strategies for an efficient retirement portfolio.

What are the key factors that determine the monthly pension payment upon retirement for employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry? Understanding the formula that calculates the pension benefits based on earnings, years of service, and the applicable rates is crucial for employees planning their retirement. Can you elaborate on how these elements work together to produce an individual's retirement income?

Key Factors Determining Pension Payments: The monthly pension payment for employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry is primarily calculated based on credited service, eligible earnings, and the applicable pension benefit rate. The formula integrates years of service with the employee's average earnings and the benefit accrual rate of 1.55%. This means the longer the employee's service and the higher their eligible earnings, the larger the pension payout. The calculation is also influenced by early retirement reductions or post-65 service, ensuring that employees' retirement income reflects their contribution history(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

In what circumstances can employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry expect a reduction in their pension benefits, and what specific actions can be taken to mitigate this reduction? An in-depth examination of early retirement options, the choices available at different ages, and the financial implications is vital for long-term planning. What steps should an employee take before deciding to retire early?

Circumstances Affecting Pension Reductions: Employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry may face pension reductions if they retire before the age of 65. Early retirement between 55 and 65 incurs a reduction in pension benefits, ranging from 3% to 18%, depending on the age of retirement. To mitigate this reduction, employees can consider working longer or maximizing other retirement savings before electing early retirement. It's essential to review the pension reduction tables and consult the Plan Administrator to understand the financial implications of early retirement(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How are employee contributions structured under the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan, and what is the impact of these contributions on overall retirement savings? Employees need to understand how their contributions, along with the employer's match, affect their future pension benefits. Could you detail the contribution rates and how they relate to the final pension payout?

Employee Contributions and Pension Benefits: Employees contribute 8% of their earnings to the Plan, while employers contribute 10%. These contributions directly impact the pension benefits, with higher contributions resulting in more substantial retirement payouts. Contributions stop once 2080 hours are paid within a plan year. Understanding how both employee and employer contributions accumulate is crucial for estimating future benefits and integrating them into overall retirement savings(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What is the process for employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry who experience a significant life event, such as marriage breakdown or disability, to adjust their pension plan? Employees need to be aware of the rights and options available to adjust their benefits in light of personal circumstances. What documentation is needed, and how does the process work?

Adjusting Pension Plan for Life Events: Significant life events such as marriage breakdown or disability allow employees to adjust their pension benefits. In the event of a marriage breakdown, 50% of the pension earned during the marriage may be split with the spouse, and specific forms and legal agreements are required for this process. Disability provisions may allow the employee to continue earning credited service without contributing. Employees should submit medical evidence or legal documents as necessary to the Plan Administrator to process adjustments(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How can employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry ensure that their personal information remains secure while accessing their pension benefits? Given the sensitive nature of financial information, it is crucial for employees to understand the privacy measures in place. What steps are taken to protect personal data, and what should employees do if they have concerns regarding their privacy?

Securing Personal Information: The Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan takes employee privacy seriously by using appropriate safeguards to protect personal information. Data is only shared with pension professionals for plan administration purposes. Employees can access their personal information and correct inaccuracies by contacting the Plan Administrator. If employees have concerns about data security, they should report them immediately to ensure their privacy is maintained(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What resources are available for employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry to access more detailed information about their pension benefit calculations and options? Seeking information through the right channels is essential for making informed decisions about retirement planning. Can you provide an overview of the tools and resources available to employees for understanding their benefit entitlements?

Resources for Pension Information: Employees have access to a variety of resources to help them understand their pension benefits. These include the Plan’s official web portal, personalized pension statements, and direct assistance from the Plan Administrator. For more detailed information, employees can consult their collective agreement and Plan documents, or they may contact the Administrator for personalized pension projections and guidance(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

In terms of the Pulp and Paper Industry's collective agreements with the Public and Private Workers of Canada (PPWC) or Unifor, how do those agreements affect pension benefits? Understanding these agreements is critical for employees as they directly influence the terms of the pension plan. Can you explain how these agreements shape the benefits structure and payout options?

Impact of Collective Agreements: Collective agreements between the Pulp and Paper Industry and unions like PPWC or Unifor directly influence pension plan provisions. These agreements determine contribution rates, eligibility, and benefit structures. Changes in collective agreements may lead to adjustments in pension benefits, so employees should stay informed about any updates to their collective agreement terms(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What implications does the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan have for employeesâ€™ beneficiaries, and what should employees know about designating a beneficiary? It is imperative for individuals to understand the importance of beneficiary designations. What processes should employees follow to ensure that their beneficiaries are appropriately designated and informed?

Pension Plan for Beneficiaries: Employees must ensure they appropriately designate a beneficiary for their pension benefits. In the event of death before retirement, the spouse or designated beneficiary will receive the pension benefits. If no beneficiary is designated, benefits are paid to the estate. Employees should complete and update their beneficiary designation form regularly to reflect their wishes and avoid legal complications(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How can an employee in the Pulp and Paper Industry contact the Plan Administrator for assistance regarding their pension benefits? Knowing the proper contact information and support channels is essential for employees navigating their retirement benefits. What are the best ways to reach out for help, and what types of inquiries can the Plan Administrator assist with?

Contacting the Plan Administrator: Employees can contact the Plan Administrator, LifeWorks, for assistance with their pension benefits. They can reach out by phone, email, or mail for inquiries about retirement estimates, pension adjustments, or general benefit calculations. The Administrator provides essential support for processing retirement, termination, and death benefits(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).