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Investing Insights for T. Rowe Price Employees: The Pros and Cons of Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Contributions

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Table of Contents

The Value Series

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Given the current elevated market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics in our four-part series. As an employee or retiree of T. Rowe Price, who likely has little market analysis experience, we understand that the valuation process can seem confusing. However, we are here to tell you that the valuation process does not have to be complex to be successful. Simple valuation techniques such as the price-to-book ratio are generally easy to use and have been proven to be effective if utilized correctly.  Investors are often looking for ways for their clients to beat the market. If you're one of those investors, you may want to consider the following strategy that has been implemented by the investment greats. Some value investors have historically beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500, and many have successful track records spanning several decades to prove it. T. Rowe Price employees, it is important to be knowledgeable regarding tactics used by famous investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. The investment style implemented by these professionals focus on four metrics that characterize a value investment. These four metrics include the Price to Earnings Ratio, the Price to Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and the Price to Book Ratio. These metrics, as you will see, are strong indicators of undervalued security. If undervalued security is brought back to fair value then we would see positive returns on that security.  For T. Rowe Price employees, it is possible to utilize these metrics to better position yourself in the market for heightened returns. We will examine the effect of investing based off of certain characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated. Today, I want to end the four-part TRG Value Series with the granddaddy of metrics, the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B).

What is Book Value?

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Book value is preferred by many value investors to cash flow and earnings metrics because it is more stable year-to-year whereas cash flow and earnings can vary greatly. This is an important property for those at T. Rowe Price to look out for due to the following reason: When a business at a cyclical trough with diminished cash flow and earnings might look expensive on the basis of price-to-cash flow or price-to-earnings, that same business may appear cheap on the basis of price-to-book value. This is because book value won’t fall much or at all in a downturn, and vice versa. Thus, the argument goes, the price-to-book value gives a more reliable picture of a company’s usual business performance, which T. Rowe Price employees can use to elevate their investment decisions and investment performance. Benjamin Graham popularized the indicator in his books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor”. Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and his research partner Kenneth French used the ratio in their three- and five-factor models to describe stock returns. Professor Joseph Piotroski uses the ratio as the only valuation measure in his F-Score methodology.

Testing

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We understand the importance of data driven research for T. Rowe Price employees and retirees. Set out below are the results of two Fama and French backtests of the book value-to-market equity (the inverse of the PB ratio) data from 1926 to 2013. As of December 2013, there were 3,175 firms in the sample (Carlisle-PB, P2). The value decile contained the 459 stocks with the highest earnings yield, and the glamour decile contained the 404 stocks with the lowest earnings yield.

 

 

The average size of the glamour stocks is $7.48 billion and the value stocks are $2.54 billion. (Note that the average is heavily skewed by the biggest companies. For context, the 3,175th company has a market capitalization today of $404 million, which is smaller than the average, but still investable for most investors). Portfolios are formed on June 30 and rebalanced annually. When accounting for this backtest, T. Rowe Price employees may recognize how two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, which means that bigger firms contribute more to the performance of the portfolio, and smaller firms contribute less. Here, we can see that the value decile has comprehensively outperformed the glamour decile, returning 12.6 percent compounded (17.7 percent in the average year) over the full period versus 8.6 percent for the glamour decile (10.9 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PB, P3).

 

These returns are considerably lower than the returns found for the price-to-earnings and cash-flow ratios discussed earlier. Despite the irregularity, T. Rowe Price employees must be aware that the earnings and cash flow back tests ran back to only 1951, and the book value return data begins in 1926. The difference is due to the 1929 crash, which had an oversized impact on returns. The impact of the crash is visible on the chart; it took twenty years for the value decile to fully recover. T. Rowe Price employees must also note how something similar has happened to the glamour decile since 2000; it hasn’t grown in 13 years. To make a comparison possible of the book value’s performance to the performance of earnings and cash flow over the same period, I also measured the returns beginning in 1951. Since 1951, the low P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 17.9 percent. Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent (Carlisle-PB, P5). These returns are approximately the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period.

 

 

In their study, they found that the quintile of the lowest P/E stocks significantly outperformed the high P/E quintile. The portfolio containing the lowest P/E stock returned 11.61% annualized compared to 4.83% for the highest P/E portfolio and 7.55% for the used universe of stocks. The graph below shows how the cumulative returns compare (it’s not even close). T. Rowe Price employees can utilize this information to avoid investing in underperforming assets and better predict economic trends that translate into higher ROI.

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Weighting

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It is important for employees and retirees of T. Rowe Price to understand how market capitalization-weighted returns are useful for demonstrating that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to the value portfolios containing smaller stocks. Unless you’re running an index (or hugging an index), they’re not really meaningful. The easiest portfolio weighting scheme is to simply equally weight each position. (If we’re prepared to put up with a little extra volatility for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is determined by the Kelly Criterion which is a formula used to determine what percentage of their capital should be used in each trade to maximize long-term growth. There are two key components to the formula (Kelly % = W- [(1 - W) / R]): the winning probability factor (W) and the win/loss ratio (R). The winning probability is the probability a trade will have a positive return. The win/loss ratio is equal to the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trading amounts. The result of the formula will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should apply to each investment. By utilizing the Kelly Weighting, investors employed or retiring from T. Rowe Price can have a better grasp of their exposure to each individual asset in their portfolio and make informed decisions regarding their asset allocation.

 

T. Rowe Price employees should also account for the equal weight return statistics for book value.  In the equal weight backtest, the value generated a 20.2 percent compounded return (27.3 percent on average), beating out glamour’s 6.3 percent compounded return (10.4 percent on average) (Carlisle-PB, P10). Since 1951 the equally weighted P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 25.4 percent (Carlisle-PB, P11).

 

 

 

 

Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 6.4 percent and an AAR of 10.8 percent. These returns are close to the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period. When accounting for this information, T. Rowe Price employees must recognize that the value portfolios outperformed because they bought more book value per dollar invested than the glamour portfolios: 4.57x on average versus 0.25x in the glamour portfolios (Carlisle-PB, P12). In the equal-weight portfolios, value has significantly outperformed glamour since 1999, beating it by an extraordinary 15.9 percent compounded, and 16.1 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PB, P13).

The Brandes Research Institute

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Because we understand just how important data-driven solutions are for our T. Rowe Price employees and retirees, we have provided another study, which discusses the P/CF ratio. In a Brandes Research Institute study, Exhibit 6 below illustrates the global all-cap findings across three price metrics.

 

 

 

 

The results confirmed a consistent value premium across all metrics. We will focus on the P/CF ratio and the outperformance in the decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks can be observed with the P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8).

About The Retirement Group    

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The Retirement Group is a nation-wide group of financial advisors who work together as a team.

 

We focus entirely on retirement planning and the design of retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees. Each representative of the group has been hand selected by The Retirement Group in select cities of the United States. Each advisor was selected based on their pension expertise, experience in financial planning, and portfolio construction knowledge.

TRG takes a teamwork approach in providing the best possible solutions for our clients’ concerns. The Team has a conservative investment philosophy and diversifies client portfolios with laddered bonds, CDs, mutual funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks and other investments to help achieve their goals. The team addresses Retirement, Pension, Tax, Asset Allocation, Estate, and Elder Care issues. This document utilizes various research tools and techniques. A variety of assumptions and judgmental elements are inevitably inherent in any attempt to estimate future results and, consequently, such results should be viewed as tentative estimations. Changes in the law, investment climate, interest rates, and personal circumstances will have profound effects on both the accuracy of our estimations and the suitability of our recommendations. The need for ongoing sensitivity to change and for constant re-examination and alteration of the plan is thus apparent.

Therefore, we encourage you to have your plan updated a few months before your potential retirement date as well as an annual review. It should be emphasized that neither The Retirement Group, LLC nor any of its employees can engage in the practice of law or accounting and that nothing in this document should be taken as an effort to do so. We look forward to working with tax and/or legal professionals you may select to discuss the relevant ramifications of our recommendations.

Throughout your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement through our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and regular updates. You may always reach us at (800) 900-5867.

Sources

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  1. What to do with an Early Retirement Ebook

  2. Social Security Ebook

  3. Lump Sum vs. Annuity Ebook

  4. 401(k) Rollover Strategies Ebook

  5. Closing the Retirement Gap Ebook

  6. Brandes Institute, The. “Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective”. 2014. < https://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective>. 

  7.  Carlisle, Tobias. “Investing Using the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Earnings Yield (Backtests 1951 to 2013)”. May 26, 2014. <http://greenbackd.com/2014/05/26/price-to-earnings-ratio-backtest-1951-to-2013/>.

  8. Causeway Capital. “The Compelling Case for Value Stocks”. 2018 https://www.causewaycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/201802-TheCompellingCaseforValue-1.pdf

  9. Research Affiliates. “To Win with ‘Smart Beta’, Ask if the Price is Right” September 7, 2016 < https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004564-win-smart-beta-ask-price-right>

  10. Tweedy Browne Company LLC. “What Has Worked in Investing: Studies of Investment Approaches and Characteristics Associated with Exceptional Returns.” 1992. <http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundVersionWeb.pdf>.

  11. Yuan, Vera. Guru Focus. “Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Book Value? Which Parameters Are Stock Prices Most Correlated To?”. August 2, 2013. < http://www.gurufocus.com/news/225255/earnings-free-cash-flow-book-value-which-parameters-are-stock-prices-most-correlated-to->.

  12. Fama and French Backtesting http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html

How can employees of T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. leverage the retirement planning tools provided by the company to enhance their financial preparedness for retirement? T. Rowe Price offers a variety of interactive tools that allow employees to model their retirement savings and understand the impacts of different investment strategies. What features do these tools have, and how can they be utilized effectively by employees to ensure they are saving adequately for their retirement goals?

Employees of T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. can leverage a variety of retirement planning tools that the company provides to enhance their financial preparedness for retirement. These interactive tools allow employees to model different retirement savings scenarios and analyze the impacts of various investment strategies. The features of these tools include the integration of defined contribution (DC) and defined benefit (DB) plan information, interactive retirement modeling, and real-time digital experiences. By utilizing these tools, employees can monitor their progress toward their retirement goals and adjust their savings strategies accordingly to ensure they are adequately prepared for retirement​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

In the context of T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc., what specific considerations should employees take into account when choosing between defined benefit plans and defined contribution plans, and how do these considerations affect their long-term financial outcomes? Employees need to understand the risks and rewards associated with each plan type, as well as potential tax implications and growth potential, to make informed decisions about their retirement savings.

When choosing between defined benefit plans (DB) and defined contribution plans (DC), employees at T. Rowe Price must consider factors such as the predictability of retirement income, growth potential, and associated risks. DB plans typically offer guaranteed income based on salary and years of service, providing more certainty, whereas DC plans depend on employee contributions and market performance, offering growth potential but with increased risk. Tax implications also differ, with contributions and withdrawals from each plan having varying impacts on taxable income, which employees must evaluate for long-term financial planning​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

For employees at T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc., what are the key steps involved in the transition from active employment to retirement, and how can understanding these steps mitigate any risks associated with this life change? Retirement planning is not just about financial readiness; it also involves emotional and logistical preparation. What resources does T. Rowe Price provide to assist employees through this process?

The transition from active employment to retirement involves several key steps, including initiating retirement plan distributions, adjusting investment strategies, and preparing for changes in income and healthcare coverage. T. Rowe Price supports this transition by offering resources such as retirement modeling tools, educational meetings, and personalized consultations. Understanding these steps and utilizing the company’s tools can help mitigate the risks associated with this life change, such as underestimating future expenses or mismanaging retirement account withdrawals​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

How does T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. ensure that employees are educated about their retirement options throughout their employment lifecycle, and what role does employee feedback play in shaping these educational programs? Continuous education is essential for employees to effectively manage their retirement savings. What initiatives has T. Rowe Price designed to keep employees engaged and informed?

T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. ensures employees are educated about their retirement options through continuous education efforts, including online communications, in-person or virtual meetings, and access to detailed retirement plan information. The company’s educational programs are designed to be relevant throughout the employee lifecycle and are continually updated based on employee feedback to ensure engagement and the provision of meaningful, actionable information. This proactive approach helps employees make informed decisions regarding their retirement savings​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

What are the tax implications of withdrawals from retirement accounts offered by T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc., and how can employees effectively plan for these implications as they near retirement age? Understanding the tax consequences can influence the timing and amount of withdrawals, and T. Rowe Price provides resources to help employees navigate these complexities. How do these implications vary depending on the type of retirement account?

Withdrawals from retirement accounts offered by T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. are subject to different tax implications depending on the type of account. For example, traditional 401(k) withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income, while Roth 401(k) withdrawals can be tax-free if certain conditions are met. To assist employees in navigating these complexities, T. Rowe Price provides resources such as tax planning tools and expert consultations, allowing employees to strategically plan the timing and amount of their withdrawals to minimize tax liabilities​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

Upon reaching retirement age, what are the options available to employees of T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. regarding the distribution of their retirement benefits, and how can employees evaluate which option may best suit their needs? Employees must weigh the pros and cons of lump-sum distributions versus annuities, and what aligned strategies T. Rowe Price suggests to assist them in making this decision.

Upon reaching retirement age, T. Rowe Price employees have various options for distributing their retirement benefits, including lump-sum payments, annuities, or periodic withdrawals. Employees must evaluate their long-term financial needs, life expectancy, and risk tolerance to determine which option best aligns with their goals. T. Rowe Price suggests that employees use its retirement modeling tools and consult with advisors to weigh the pros and cons of each distribution option and select a strategy that provides financial stability throughout retirement​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

How does T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. accommodate employees with different risk tolerances within its retirement investment offerings, and what strategies are recommended for employees to align their investment choices with their personal risk profiles? Employees’ financial goals can greatly differ; thus, understanding how to tailor investment strategies according to individual risk tolerance is crucial.

T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. offers a range of investment options that accommodate different risk tolerances, from conservative to aggressive strategies. Employees are encouraged to align their investment choices with their personal financial goals and risk profiles by using the company’s interactive retirement planning tools, which provide tailored advice based on individual risk preferences. This personalized approach ensures that employees can confidently manage their retirement savings according to their comfort with market fluctuations​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

In what ways does T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. support employees approaching retirement in understanding their healthcare options, and what resources are available to assist with the transition? Healthcare costs can be a significant burden in retirement, and employees need to be prepared. What educational tools or advice does T. Rowe Price provide to help ease this transition?

For employees approaching retirement, T. Rowe Price offers resources to help them understand their healthcare options, which can significantly impact retirement expenses. These resources include educational materials, healthcare cost calculators, and consultations with experts to provide a clear picture of post-retirement healthcare needs. By utilizing these tools, employees can better prepare for healthcare expenses and make informed decisions about Medicare, supplemental insurance, and long-term care​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

How can employees of T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. utilize the company’s resources to keep abreast of changes in regulations affecting retirement benefits? The regulatory environment surrounding retirement plans is constantly evolving, and staying informed is imperative for effective planning. Which specific resources does T. Rowe Price offer to ensure employees remain updated on these changes?

T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. ensures that employees stay informed about changes in regulations affecting retirement benefits through ongoing educational efforts, newsletters, and updates via the company’s online platforms. These resources provide timely information on regulatory changes, ensuring that employees can adjust their retirement plans accordingly to remain compliant and maximize their savings potential. Staying updated on these changes is crucial for effective retirement planning​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

For employees seeking additional information about their retirement options and benefits at T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc., what is the best method to contact the appropriate department for assistance? Understanding the various channels of communication and support available can optimize employees' access to information and resources. What steps should an employee take to ensure they receive comprehensive answers to their inquiries?

Employees seeking additional information about their retirement options and benefits at T. Rowe Price Retirement Plan Services, Inc. can contact the appropriate department by phone or through the company’s online support system. T. Rowe Price provides dedicated client contacts and real-time access to retirement plan information via its online portal. Employees can ensure they receive comprehensive answers by preparing specific questions and utilizing the available communication channels effectively​(T Rowe Price Retirement…).

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