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Investing Insights for USG Corporation Employees: The Pros and Cons of Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Contributions

The Value Series

What is Book Value?

Testing

Weighting

The Brandes Research Institute

About The Retirement Group

Sources

The Value Series

Given the current elevated market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics in our four-part series. As an employee or retiree of USG Corporation, who likely has little market analysis experience, we understand that the valuation process can seem confusing. However, we are here to tell you that the valuation process does not have to be complex to be successful. Simple valuation techniques such as the price-to-book ratio are generally easy to use and have been proven to be effective if utilized correctly. Investors are often looking for ways for their clients to beat the market. If you're one of those investors, you may want to consider the following strategy that has been implemented by the investment greats. Some value investors have historically beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500, and many have successful track records spanning several decades to prove it. USG Corporation employees, it is important to be knowledgeable regarding tactics used by famous investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. The investment style implemented by these professionals focus on four metrics that characterize a value investment. These four metrics include the Price to Earnings Ratio, the Price to Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and the Price to Book Ratio. These metrics, as you will see, are strong indicators of undervalued security. If undervalued security is brought back to fair value then we would see positive returns on that security. For USG Corporation employees, it is possible to utilize these metrics to better position yourself in the market for heightened returns. We will examine the effect of investing based off of certain characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated. Today, I want to end the four-part TRG Value Series with the granddaddy of metrics, the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B).

What is Book Value?

Book value is preferred by many value investors to cash flow and earnings metrics because it is more stable year-to-year whereas cash flow and earnings can vary greatly. This is an important property for those at USG Corporation to look out for due to the following reason: When a business at a cyclical trough with diminished cash flow and earnings might look expensive on the basis of price-to-cash flow or price-to-earnings, that same business may appear cheap on the basis of price-to-book value. This is because book value won’t fall much or at all in a downturn, and vice versa. Thus, the argument goes, the price-to-book value gives a more reliable picture of a company’s usual business performance, which USG Corporation employees can use to elevate their investment decisions and investment performance. Benjamin Graham popularized the indicator in his books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor”. Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and his research partner Kenneth French used the ratio in their three- and five-factor models to describe stock returns. Professor Joseph Piotroski uses the ratio as the only valuation measure in his F-Score methodology.

Testing

We understand the importance of data driven research for USG Corporation employees and retirees. Set out below are the results of two Fama and French backtests of the book value-to-market equity (the inverse of the PB ratio) data from 1926 to 2013. As of December 2013, there were 3,175 firms in the sample (Carlisle-PB, P2). The value decile contained the 459 stocks with the highest earnings yield, and the glamour decile contained the 404 stocks with the lowest earnings yield.

The average size of the glamour stocks is $7.48 billion and the value stocks are $2.54 billion. (Note that the average is heavily skewed by the biggest companies. For context, the 3,175th company has a market capitalization today of $404 million, which is smaller than the average, but still investable for most investors). Portfolios are formed on June 30 and rebalanced annually. When accounting for this backtest, USG Corporation employees may recognize how two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, which means that bigger firms contribute more to the performance of the portfolio, and smaller firms contribute less. Here, we can see that the value decile has comprehensively outperformed the glamour decile, returning 12.6 percent compounded (17.7 percent in the average year) over the full period versus 8.6 percent for the glamour decile (10.9 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PB, P3).

These returns are considerably lower than the returns found for the price-to-earnings and cash-flow ratios discussed earlier. Despite the irregularity, USG Corporation employees must be aware that the earnings and cash flow back tests ran back to only 1951, and the book value return data begins in 1926. The difference is due to the 1929 crash, which had an oversized impact on returns. The impact of the crash is visible on the chart; it took twenty years for the value decile to fully recover. USG Corporation employees must also note how something similar has happened to the glamour decile since 2000; it hasn’t grown in 13 years. To make a comparison possible of the book value’s performance to the performance of earnings and cash flow over the same period, I also measured the returns beginning in 1951. Since 1951, the low P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 17.9 percent. Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 9.6 percent and an AAR of 12.6 percent (Carlisle-PB, P5). These returns are approximately the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period.

In their study, they found that the quintile of the lowest P/E stocks significantly outperformed the high P/E quintile. The portfolio containing the lowest P/E stock returned 11.61% annualized compared to 4.83% for the highest P/E portfolio and 7.55% for the used universe of stocks. The graph below shows how the cumulative returns compare (it’s not even close). USG Corporation employees can utilize this information to avoid investing in underperforming assets and better predict economic trends that translate into higher ROI.

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Weighting

It is important for employees and retirees of USG Corporation to understand how market capitalization-weighted returns are useful for demonstrating that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to the value portfolios containing smaller stocks. Unless you’re running an index (or hugging an index), they’re not really meaningful. The easiest portfolio weighting scheme is to simply equally weight each position. (If we’re prepared to put up with a little extra volatility for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is determined by the Kelly Criterion which is a formula used to determine what percentage of their capital should be used in each trade to maximize long-term growth. There are two key components to the formula (Kelly % = W- [(1 - W) / R]): the winning probability factor (W) and the win/loss ratio (R). The winning probability is the probability a trade will have a positive return. The win/loss ratio is equal to the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trading amounts. The result of the formula will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should apply to each investment. By utilizing the Kelly Weighting, investors employed or retiring from USG Corporation can have a better grasp of their exposure to each individual asset in their portfolio and make informed decisions regarding their asset allocation.

USG Corporation employees should also account for the equal weight return statistics for book value. In the equal weight backtest, the value generated a 20.2 percent compounded return (27.3 percent on average), beating out glamour’s 6.3 percent compounded return (10.4 percent on average) (Carlisle-PB, P10). Since 1951 the equally weighted P/B value decile has generated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.0 percent and an average annual return (AAR) of 25.4 percent (Carlisle-PB, P11).

Over the same period, the glamour decile returned a CAGR of 6.4 percent and an AAR of 10.8 percent. These returns are close to the same as the returns generated by the low P/CF and P/E studies over the same period. When accounting for this information, USG Corporation employees must recognize that the value portfolios outperformed because they bought more book value per dollar invested than the glamour portfolios: 4.57x on average versus 0.25x in the glamour portfolios (Carlisle-PB, P12). In the equal-weight portfolios, value has significantly outperformed glamour since 1999, beating it by an extraordinary 15.9 percent compounded, and 16.1 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PB, P13).

The Brandes Research Institute

Because we understand just how important data-driven solutions are for our USG Corporation employees and retirees, we have provided another study, which discusses the P/CF ratio. In a Brandes Research Institute study, Exhibit 6 below illustrates the global all-cap findings across three price metrics.

The results confirmed a consistent value premium across all metrics. We will focus on the P/CF ratio and the outperformance in the decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks can be observed with the P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8).

About The Retirement Group

The Retirement Group is a nation-wide group of financial advisors who work together as a team.

We focus entirely on retirement planning and the design of retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees. Each representative of the group has been hand selected by The Retirement Group in select cities of the United States. Each advisor was selected based on their pension expertise, experience in financial planning, and portfolio construction knowledge.

TRG takes a teamwork approach in providing the best possible solutions for our clients’ concerns. The Team has a conservative investment philosophy and diversifies client portfolios with laddered bonds, CDs, mutual funds, ETFs, Annuities, Stocks and other investments to help achieve their goals. The team addresses Retirement, Pension, Tax, Asset Allocation, Estate, and Elder Care issues. This document utilizes various research tools and techniques. A variety of assumptions and judgmental elements are inevitably inherent in any attempt to estimate future results and, consequently, such results should be viewed as tentative estimations. Changes in the law, investment climate, interest rates, and personal circumstances will have profound effects on both the accuracy of our estimations and the suitability of our recommendations. The need for ongoing sensitivity to change and for constant re-examination and alteration of the plan is thus apparent.

Therefore, we encourage you to have your plan updated a few months before your potential retirement date as well as an annual review. It should be emphasized that neither The Retirement Group, LLC nor any of its employees can engage in the practice of law or accounting and that nothing in this document should be taken as an effort to do so. We look forward to working with tax and/or legal professionals you may select to discuss the relevant ramifications of our recommendations.

Throughout your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement through our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and regular updates. You may always reach us at (800) 900-5867.

Sources

What to do with an Early Retirement Ebook
Social Security Ebook
Lump Sum vs. Annuity Ebook
401(k) Rollover Strategies Ebook
Closing the Retirement Gap Ebook
Brandes Institute, The. “Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective”. 2014. < https://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective>.
Carlisle, Tobias. “Investing Using the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Earnings Yield (Backtests 1951 to 2013)”. May 26, 2014. <http://greenbackd.com/2014/05/26/price-to-earnings-ratio-backtest-1951-to-2013/>.
Causeway Capital. “The Compelling Case for Value Stocks”. 2018 https://www.causewaycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/201802-TheCompellingCaseforValue-1.pdf
Research Affiliates. “To Win with ‘Smart Beta’, Ask if the Price is Right” September 7, 2016 < https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004564-win-smart-beta-ask-price-right>
Tweedy Browne Company LLC. “What Has Worked in Investing: Studies of Investment Approaches and Characteristics Associated with Exceptional Returns.” 1992. <http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundVersionWeb.pdf>.
Yuan, Vera. Guru Focus. “Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Book Value? Which Parameters Are Stock Prices Most Correlated To?”. August 2, 2013. < http://www.gurufocus.com/news/225255/earnings-free-cash-flow-book-value-which-parameters-are-stock-prices-most-correlated-to->.
Fama and French Backtesting http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html

How does the retirement plan structure at USG Corporation impact both final average earnings participants and cash balance participants, especially regarding their eligibility and benefits accrued over time? In what ways does the differentiation between these two categories influence the retirement outcomes for employees of USG Corporation?

Retirement Plan Structure: USG Corporation's retirement plan differentiates between Final Average Earnings Participants and Cash Balance Participants. Final Average Earnings participants, who joined before January 1, 2011, accrue benefits based on their final average earnings and years of service, which can result in higher benefits for longer-serving employees. Cash Balance participants, who joined after January 1, 2011, have their benefits calculated based on a cash balance account, which grows with contributions and interest credits. These differences affect retirement outcomes, as Final Average Earnings participants may see higher pension payments if they have longer service or higher wages, while Cash Balance participants have more predictable but potentially lower benefits based on their account balance(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

USG Corporation's Retirement Plan allows for different age-specific rules regarding early retirement. How do the "Rule of 90" and "Rule of 82" affect the financial planning of employees considering an early retirement option, and what should they consider regarding their long-term financial security?

Rule of 90 and Rule of 82: The "Rule of 90" allows employees to retire early without a reduction in benefits if their age plus years of service total 90, provided they retire at or after age 62. The "Rule of 82" permits early retirement with reduced benefits for those whose age and years of service total 82. Employees planning early retirement must consider these rules as they directly affect the amount of benefits they receive, making it important to assess how long-term financial security will be impacted, especially if they retire before age 62(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

Could you elaborate on the process through which employees at USG Corporation can change their beneficiaries within the retirement plan? What steps need to be taken, and what are the implications of these changes on the benefits received upon the participant's death?

Changing Beneficiaries: To change beneficiaries, USG Corporation employees must contact Your Benefits Resources™, where they can designate a primary and contingent beneficiary. If married, the spouse must provide notarized consent to name a different primary beneficiary. The process involves completing a form, and any changes affect who receives benefits upon the participant's death. Failing to update the beneficiary could result in benefits being paid to unintended individuals(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

As part of the retirement process at USG Corporation, how are pensionable earnings calculated? What factors are included in this determination, and how might they vary among different employees based on their roles within the organization?

Pensionable Earnings Calculation: Pensionable earnings at USG Corporation include regular pay, shift differentials, and bonuses but exclude items like nonqualified deferred compensation, severance, and stock awards. These earnings are used to calculate benefits based on formulas that take into account an employee’s service years and earnings over the 36 highest consecutive months of the last 15 years of participation(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How does the automatic enrollment in the USG Corporation Retirement Plan work, and what options do employees have if they initially chose not to participate? What implications might this have for their retirement savings strategy?

Automatic Enrollment and Opting In: Employees at USG Corporation are automatically enrolled in the retirement plan unless they choose to opt out. If employees decide not to participate initially, they can enroll later by contacting Your Benefits Resources™. Failure to participate from the start could result in lower retirement savings due to fewer years of contributions(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

In the context of USG Corporation, what are the potential tax consequences for employees withdrawing their retirement benefits, especially regarding the mandatory withholdings? How might employees effectively manage these tax liabilities when planning for retirement?

Tax Consequences of Withdrawals: Employees withdrawing their retirement benefits from USG Corporation will face mandatory federal income tax withholdings, typically 20% for lump sum distributions, unless the distribution is rolled over into an IRA. Employees must plan for these taxes when withdrawing to avoid unexpected liabilities and ensure they maximize their after-tax retirement income(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How do employees at USG Corporation access the necessary documents related to their retirement benefits, and what is the process for obtaining copies of these documents if needed? What are the responsibilities of the Plan Administrator in this process?

Accessing Retirement Documents: Employees can access documents related to their retirement benefits through Your Benefits Resources™ online or via phone. If additional copies are needed, employees can request them from the Plan Administrator for a small fee. The Plan Administrator oversees ensuring these documents are provided to participants as required by ERISA(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

What unique provisions exist for USG Corporation employees who experience a break in service? How do these provisions impact their accumulated benefit service and overall benefits upon reemployment?

Break in Service Provisions: USG Corporation allows employees who experience a break in service to retain their accumulated benefits if they are reemployed within one year. If reemployed after one year, their previous service may not count toward future benefits unless they were vested prior to termination. This can affect the total benefits an employee accrues if they leave and later return(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

What options do employees of USG Corporation have for managing their benefits if they return to work after retirement? How does this affect their pension benefits and the overall strategy for maximizing retirement income?

Returning to Work After Retirement: Employees returning to work after retirement at USG Corporation will have their pension payments suspended and recalculated based on additional years of service. This recalculation takes into account prior payments, meaning employees should consider the impact of returning to work on their long-term pension strategy(USG Corporation_Retirem…)(USG Corporation_Retirem…).

How can employees of USG Corporation contact their Benefits Resourcesâ„¢ for more information on their retirement plan options? Are there specific channels preferred for different types of inquiries, and what resources are available to assist them?

Contacting Benefits Resources™: Employees can contact Your Benefits Resources™ via the web or a toll-free number to inquire about retirement plan options. Different inquiries, such as changes to beneficiaries or requesting benefit estimates, can be handled through these channels. Resources such as detailed benefit estimates are available to help employees plan for retirement(USG Corporation_Retirem…).