Ernst & Young Employees: Investing Beyond Politics

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'History shows that investors typically benefit most from staying disciplined with long-term strategies rather than reacting to political shifts, as broader economic forces consistently outweigh election cycles.' – Paul Bergeron, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Decades of market history remind Ernst & Young employees that steady commitment to long-term strategies has consistently outperformed attempts to shift course based on election results.' – Tyson Mavar, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will cover:

1. How stock market performance has varied under different U.S. presidents.

2. Why election outcomes have historically mattered less than long‑term economic trends.

3. Insights for Fortune 500 employees on maintaining disciplined investing.

Since its inception in 1957, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 9.3% annually under Democratic presidents and 10.2% under Republican presidents. ¹  However, its median one-year returns averaged 12.9% under Democratic presidents and 9.9% under Republican presidents. ¹  Although certain extreme cases skew the figures, the prevailing narrative is that markets have steadily grown under nearly every administration. For Fortune 500 employees, the key point is that trying to time investments around elections has historically underperformed, as broader forces such as innovation, monetary policy, and global events play a much larger role. Over time, staying invested has delivered nearly 10% annual returns ² —far more impactful than wagering on red or blue.

Overview

Over almost a century, the U.S. stock market has experienced dramatic fluctuations. This analysis examines returns from one inauguration to the next, tracking S&P 500 performance by presidential term between 1926 and 2024. For Fortune 500 investors observing the market, the long‑term trend remains firmly upward, despite recessions, wars, or recoveries affecting short‑term results.

The Great Depression and the Roaring Twenties (Coolidge and Hoover)

The roaring 1920s ended under President Calvin Coolidge with substantial market growth, as the S&P 500 proxy rose about 26.1% annually from 1923 to 1929. ³  The boom ended abruptly with the 1929 crash, leading into the Great Depression. Herbert Hoover’s tenure saw a 77% market collapse ³ —one of the worst in history. 

The 1950s Postwar Boom (Dwight D. Eisenhower)

The 1950s marked a period of steady economic expansion, driven by infrastructure investment and an expanding middle class under Dwight D. Eisenhower. By 1961, the market had nearly doubled. ³  

The Tech Boom of the 1990s (Bill Clinton)

From 1993 to 2001, under President Clinton, the S&P 500 returned approximately 15% annually and climbed nearly 210% overall. ³  This coincided with a surge in innovation and technology. The broader market rally positioned companies like Fortune 500 as significant players as the economy surged.

George W. Bush, Boom, Bust, and Crisis in the 2000s

George W. Bush assumed office during the dot‑com collapse. From 2000 to 2002, the S&P 500 fell roughly 50%. ³  Though a mid‑decade recovery took place, the 2008 financial crisis erased years of gains, resulting in negative returns for Bush’s presidency. For Fortune 500 employees, this period is remembered for energy price shocks and sharp volatility, highlighting the impact of global market forces.

Following 2008, a Bull Market and Recovery (Barack Obama)

Assuming office in January 2009 amidst the Great Recession, President Obama presided over a market rebound spurred by stimulus measures. The S&P 500 rebounded strongly, making Obama one of the most effective market performers of the contemporary era. Investors learned that long‑term positioning matters deeply—even in downturns.

Volatility and Tax Cuts in the Late 2010s (Donald Trump)

Between 2017 and 2021, during Trump’s presidency, the S&P 500 advanced about 68% overall, or roughly 13.6% annually. ³  Despite political unpredictability, markets continued upward, demonstrating again that investors benefit most from disciplined consistency rather than speculation.

Joe Biden’s “Pandemic Crash and Rebound”

Biden took office in 2021 as markets were recovering from pandemic‐related declines. The S&P 500 rose 28.5% in 2021, declined 18% in 2022 amid inflation, then gained 26% in 2023 and 25% in 2024. ⁴  With an annualized return of 11.9% during his tenure, Biden's term marked near-record stock market returns. ³  For Fortune 500 employees, this underscores how market resilience reflects wider economic cycles.

Party-wise Market Performance: Democrats vs. Republicans

Since its inception in 1957, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 9.3% annually under Democratic presidents and 10.2% under Republican presidents. ¹  Historically, shifting investment based on election outcomes has underperformed. For Fortune 500 investors, this suggests that long‑term commitment outweighs election‑driven tactics.

In Conclusion

History demonstrates that market outcomes depend far more on innovation, economic cycles, and global dynamics than on who’s in the White House. While Democrats have overseen some of the strongest rallies, Republican administrations have also seen major gains. For Fortune 500 employees, the message is clear: disciplined investing and staying the course have historically produced the best results, irrespective of political turnover.

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Sources:

1. The Motley Fool. ' Here's the Average Stock Market Return Under Democratic and Republican Presidents ,' by Trevor Jennewine. July 5, 2024.

2. nerdwallet. ' What Is the Average Stock Market Return? ' by James Royal. July 25, 2025.

3. Kiplinger. ' The Best and Worst Presidents (According to the Stock Market) ,' by C.L. Sizemore. July 3, 2025.

4. Stern NYU. ' Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2024 .' January 2025.