Should University of California Retirees Buy Ultra-Long Treasury “Zeros”? Read This First

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'Ultra-long zero-coupon bonds highlight how crucial it is for University of California employees to align investments with their retirement timelines, as inflation and rate risk can erode value over decades.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'University of California employees should recognize that while ultra-long zero-coupon bonds may eventually return full value, the lack of interim income and inflation risk can make them unsuitable for stable retirement planning.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

1. The hidden risks of ultra-long zero-coupon Treasury bonds.

2. How inflation and taxes impact retirement income planning.

3. Alternatives for University of California retirees seeking stable cash flow.

An Inside Look at Bonds

Bonds have long been considered a stabilizing element for retirement portfolios. After all, high-quality fixed income instruments often provide reliable income, diversification, and some protection from stock market swings. However, not all bonds are created equal. Risks tied to certain types—including ultra-long, zero-coupon Treasury bonds, which can stretch out for 30 years or more—should be understood by University of California employees preparing for retirement.

Even though these investments are promoted as discounted options that pay full face value at maturity, they may not be the best fit for retirement income planning. A closer look shows ultra-long zero-coupon bonds can leave investors exposed to heightened interest rate risk, inflation erosion, and complicated tax treatment.

Why “Zeros” at Deep Discount Could Be Deceptive

Zero-coupon Treasury bonds do not pay interest during their lifespan. Instead, they are purchased at a discount and redeemed at face value when they mature. For example, someone might buy a bond now for $24 and receive $100 in 2055. Although this may seem tempting on its face, there are challenges to consider.

Rate sensitivity (duration):  Because all cash flow comes only at maturity, these bonds are extremely sensitive to long-term rate changes. A single percentage point rise in yields can drop a $24 bond’s value to $17—a fall of more than 30%. Retirees who need stability may lack the horizon to recover from these swings.

Inflation erosion:  Even if held to maturity, the payout may fail to deliver the real value expected. Thirty years of moderate inflation could reduce $100 in future dollars to $40 or less in today’s purchasing power.

Tax drag:  In taxable accounts, zero-coupon bonds generate “phantom income.” Even though no cash is received until maturity, the IRS taxes the annual accrual. University of California employees who dependon current cash flow may end up paying tax on income they won’t have in hand for decades.

Interest Rate Volatility Versus Credit Risk

It’s important to distinguish between interest rate risk and credit risk. U.S. Treasury instruments are backed by the federal government’s full faith and credit, making default nearly non-existent. Yet that backing does not extend to maintaining purchasing power or keeping market value before maturity.

When inflation expectations shift or interest rates go up, 30-year bonds can swing dramatically. University of California retirees should recognize that while redemption at face value is nearly certain it might not meet real spending needs or provide steady cash flow.

Alternatives for Retirement Portfolios

That said, other fixed-income options may align more closely with retirement goals and offer University of California retirees more predictable income:

• Short- to medium-term certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasurys: Laddering maturities from one to five years can help lower rate risk and deliver more predictable liquidity.

• High-quality short-duration bond funds: These limit volatility while sticking to strong credit standards.

• Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): Adjust with inflation, making them useful when matched to spending timelines.

• I Bonds: Offer inflation adjustment and delayed taxation, though subject to annual purchase limits.

• Cash and money market funds: Keep six to eighteen months of withdrawals readily accessible.

• Municipal bonds (for higher tax brackets): Provide income with favorable tax treatment, especially in high-income tax states.

Handling Current Long-Dated Zero Holdings

University of California employees with ultra-long zero holdings may consider:

• 1. Holding them until maturity: Face value redemption is certain, but inflation erosion and lack of interim cash flow remain issues.

• 2. Reducing or exiting positions: Shift money into assets more suited to income needs, though selling might lead to losses.

• 3. Mixing with TIPS or using a barbell strategy: Combine long-dated holdings with shorter Treasurys and inflation-linked bonds.

• 4. Consulting a tax professional: Address phantom income and consider tactics like tax-loss harvesting.

Tracking the Risk of Bond Portfolios

Good portfolio management for University of California retirees means:

• - Recognizing duration and how assets respond to rate changes.

• - Matching holdings with spending needs—using inflation-linked assets for essentials; using more volatile ones for discretionary spending.

• - Staying focused on long-term objectives rather than reacting to short-term policy news.

Recommendations for Retirement Bond Selection

University of California retirees may be able to improve their bond approaches by:

• - Favoring steady cash flow rather than speculative growth.

• - Matching bond maturity to personal timelines.

• - Keeping purchasing power intact by using inflation-linked assets like TIPS and I bonds.

A Framework for Illustrative Allocation

A balanced allocation might include:

• - 12 months’ expected withdrawals in cash or money markets.

• - A one- to five-year Treasury or CD ladder.

• - TIPS for 20-40% of fixed-income allocation.

• - The rest in short- to intermediate-term bond funds.

• - Little or no ultra-long zero-coupon holdings, except for small, speculative positions.

Important Takeaway

Even though ultra-long zero-coupon Treasurys are government backed, they carry risks that can work against retirement goals: high volatility, inflation erosion, and no interim income. For University of California retirees, they are less reliable for steady income than diversified approaches that include cash reserves, shorter ladders, and inflation-linked holdings.

Purchasing ultra-long zeros is like planting a tree that won’t bear fruit for 30 years. While it will eventually yield, there’s no benefit in the meantime, and storms—like rising rates—may nearly topple it, while inflation eats away at its roots. Choosing TIPS, shorter bonds, and ladders is more like tending an orchard where trees ripen at different times, offering steady harvests and cover when needed most.

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Sources:

1. Internal Revenue Service.  Publication 550: Investment Income (and Expenses).  U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2024, pp. 17–18, 65, 75–76.

2. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Office of Investor Education and Advocacy. “ What Are Corporate Bonds? ” SEC, n.d., pp. 1–3.

3. U.S. Department of the Treasury. “ Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). ” TreasuryDirect, n.d., n.p.

4. Fidelity Investments. “ How to Earn Steady Income with Bonds (Bond Ladder Strategy). ”  Fidelity Viewpoints,  4 Oct. 2024, n.p.

5. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “ Treasury Term Premia. ” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, n.d., n.p.