Guess Employees: The 4% Rule is Outdated—Here's How to Spend More in Retirement

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'Guess employees, by embracing a more diversified retirement portfolio and the updated 4.7% withdrawal rule, can potentially create a sustainable retirement income aligned with today's economic conditions, enabling them to live more comfortably without outliving their savings.' – Wesley Boudreaux, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'Guess employees can benefit from adopting Bengen's updated 4.7% withdrawal rule, as it provides a more flexible and sustainable approach to retirement planning, allowing them to withdraw larger amounts while still focusing on their long-term financial goals.' – Patrick Ray, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

1. The evolution of the 4% withdrawal rule and its updates.

2. The importance of diversification in retirement portfolios.

3. How retirees, especially those at Guess, can benefit from the revised withdrawal strategy.

For many years, both pensioners and financial advisers have debated the idea of a sustainable withdrawal rate for retirement funds. The 4% rule, first proposed by Bill Bengen in 1994, quickly became a key guideline in retirement planning. According to this approach, in the first year of retirement, pensioners could withdraw 4% of their retirement funds; each year after that, the amount would be adjusted for inflation. The goal was simple: help pensioners live for 30 years without depleting their funds. However, after decades of success with this technique, Bengen has recently re-examined his strategy and concluded that retirees may be able to spend more than originally thought.

The 4% Rule’s Evolution

The financial community quickly embraced Bengen's original study after its publication in the  Journal of Financial Planning  in 1994. Using a straightforward portfolio of U.S. large-company equities and U.S. 5-year bonds, Bengen offered a simple method for pensioners to determine how much they could withdraw from their retirement savings. However, even as the 4% rule gained popularity, it overlooked important factors like inflation rates, asset allocation, and market volatility—issues that could arise in retirement.

By 2022, Bengen revisited his decades-old guideline. After a long career of studying retirement planning, he experienced what he called a 'breakthrough moment.' Instead of viewing stock returns as the primary factor in withdrawal rate calculations, Bengen realized that inflation should be given more weight. Consequently, he revised the 4% rule, raising the withdrawal rate to 4.7%. This change accounts for a more diversified portfolio and a broader mix of asset classes, offering retirees a more sustainable and generous approach.

Introducing the New 4.7% Rule

Under the updated approach, a retiree with $1 million in savings could withdraw $47,000 in their first year of retirement. This amount would then be adjusted for inflation in subsequent years, just as in the original 4% rule. However, the key change lies in asset allocation. The original rule was based on a basic stock and bond portfolio, while Bengen's revised model includes a diverse mix of asset classes such as international equities, bonds, small-cap stocks, and large-cap U.S. stocks. With this diversification, the 4.7% rule is considered a “worst-case scenario” for retirees hoping to avoid exhausting their funds within 30 years.

The Importance of Diversification

Bengen’s updated approach is backed by years of research and portfolio optimization. The more diversified portfolio—comprising U.S. stocks, foreign equities, bonds, and small-cap stocks—aims to offer greater stability. Bengen’s findings show that, under certain conditions, retirees could withdraw as much as 7% of their savings annually, especially if their portfolios were well-diversified. However, Bengen's study also emphasized the importance of rebalancing your portfolio regularly to align with your financial goals and risk tolerance as a retiree.

For those at Guess, this revised withdrawal rate carries real implications. With the 4.7% rule, you can notionally spend more during retirement without depleting your funds—provided your portfolio is well-diversified. Given the changing financial landscape, Bengen believes retirees today, even those from large corporations like Guess, may be able to withdraw between 5.25% and 5.5%, particularly in times of moderate inflation and high market valuations.

A Historical Perspective on the 4% Rule

Despite its appeal, the original 4% rule wasn’t without flaws. Bengen’s initial model didn’t account for prolonged low interest rates, market crashes, or long stretches of low inflation, all of which could impact a retiree’s financial stability. In response, Bengen began to expand his research and include more types of assets to increase stability.

His updated model showed that retirees who retired during economic downturns, like in the 1970s, needed to take a more cautious approach to withdrawals. In such circumstances, a 4.7% withdrawal rate would have been the most prudent option. On the other hand, retirees who experienced more stable financial times could comfortably withdraw around 7% of their savings. This illustrates how critical it is to account for the state of the economy when planning for retirement.

Adapting to Today's Economic Climate

The economic climate today is vastly different from the turbulent 1970s. Inflation is coming back under control, and stock market valuations are high. According to Bengen’s latest research, retirees today can potentially withdraw between 5.25% and 5.5% of their savings each year, depending on market conditions. This adjustment makes sure that retirees maintain their purchasing power and enjoy a fulfilling retirement over the long term.

Even with the current market conditions, Bengen remains cautious. Given the high market valuations, he advises retirees, including those working for large companies like Guess, to remain mindful. While the 4.7% rule might still be a reliable option in the long run, it’s crucial for retirees to diversify their holdings and periodically revisit their withdrawal plans.

A Shift in Perspective

Bengen’s updated strategy might seem bold or controversial to those who have relied on the 4% rule for decades. After all, the 4% rule became a widely accepted approach, praised for its reliability and simplicity. However, Bengen believes in challenging long-held assumptions to improve financial planning, which includes adapting strategies to reflect changing market conditions. He encourages open discussions and critical thinking about retirement strategies, as this will ultimately lead to better planning and more financial independence for retirees.

In Conclusion

Bengen’s revised 4.7% rule offers retirees, including those at Guess, a more generous and adaptable framework for managing retirement funds. By diversifying portfolios, rebalancing regularly, and staying attuned to current economic conditions, retirees can potentially take out larger withdrawals without fearing their money will run out too soon. While the 4% rule still holds historical value, it’s time for retirement strategies to evolve, reflecting the changing economic landscape. This updated strategy empowers retirees to live with greater financial independence and potentially enjoy a higher standard of living during retirement.

Research by the Financial Planning Association (FPA) also highlights how diversification can help enhance retirement stability. Incorporating alternative assets like commodities, bonds, and real estate into traditional portfolios can help retirees manage risk and maintain higher withdrawal rates. By diversifying, retirees may be better able to support their financial well-being, even during periods of economic uncertainty.

Guess employees can now benefit from a more sustainable retirement withdrawal strategy thanks to Bengen’s 4.7% rule. The updated approach allows retirees to withdraw more money each year, benefiting from better asset diversification and a more comprehensive understanding of current market dynamics. It’s time to adjust your retirement strategy to reflect the current economy—so you can enjoy a more independent and fulfilling retirement.

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Sources:

1. The Wealth Advisor Staff. 'The 4% Rule Creator Reveals the New Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate.' The Wealth Advisor, April 2025.

2. 'Diversify or Risk Running Dry: 12 Additional Income Streams For Your Retirement.' Investopedia, May 2025.

3. Kiplinger Staff. 'Why Keeping Growth in Your Portfolio After 70 Is Crucial for Your Financial Health.' Kiplinger, June 2025.

4. Financial Planning Association. 'Retirement Withdrawals: The 4% Rule Has Gotten a Boost.' YouTube, March 2025.

5. Nasdaq Staff. 'The Importance of Diversifying Your Retirement Portfolio.' Nasdaq, July 2025.