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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and 3M Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for 3M: 3M does not directly provide healthcare services but has a significant stake in the healthcare sector through its Health Care business, which will operate as Solventum following its spin-off. Solventum focuses on various healthcare innovations, including medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and health information systems, positioning itself as a critical player in improving patient outcomes and healthcare delivery. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As the healthcare landscape faces an impending crisis, projections indicate that healthcare costs may surge significantly in 2026, with some states expecting premium hikes surpassing 60% - primarily as a result of the potential expiration of enhanced federal subsidies for ACA plans. This situation, compounded by rising medical costs and aggressive rate increases from leading insurers, could lead to a staggering average out-of-pocket premium increase of 75% for 92% of marketplace enrollees, making affordable healthcare increasingly elusive for millions. Stakeholders will need to navigate these changes carefully to mitigate financial impacts on consumers. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for 3M employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, 3M employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on 3M employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly 3M employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at 3M preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially 3M employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at 3M with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

Given the recent decision by 3M to freeze its pension plans for non-union employees effective December 31, 2028, how should employees prepare for this significant change? What resources and strategies can they explore to ensure they are financially secure during retirement, considering the shift from traditional pension benefits at 3M to 401(k) plans?

Preparation for Pension Freeze at 3M: As 3M plans to freeze its pension plans for non-union employees by the end of 2028, employees should begin by assessing their current pension benefits and understanding how much they will have accrued by the freeze date. It's advisable for employees to consult financial advisors to discuss alternative retirement savings strategies, such as IRAs or other investment vehicles. Additionally, employees should take advantage of the company's matching contributions to 401(k) plans and consider increasing their contributions to maximize their retirement savings.

With 3M transitioning from a pension-based retirement system to a 401(k) structure, what implications does this have for employee contributions and investment options? How can 3M employees utilize the flexibility offered by 401(k) plans to align with their individual retirement goals, and what specific considerations should they keep in mind when selecting investments?

Implications for Employee Contributions at 3M: With 3M transitioning to a 401(k) model, employees will have more control over their retirement investments. This shift means that employees need to be more proactive in selecting investment options that align with their retirement goals. Employees should consider factors like risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals when selecting investments. Utilizing tools and resources offered by 3M, such as financial planning services and investment education workshops, can help employees make informed decisions.

How will the freeze on accrual of pension benefits affect the retirement planning process for employees who have been with 3M for many years compared to newer employees? What unique challenges might long-term employees face as they transition from relying on defined benefits to managing their retirement accounts through 3M?

Impact on Long-term vs. New Employees: Long-term 3M employees who have accrued significant pension benefits might find the transition challenging as they shift from a defined benefit to a defined contribution plan. These employees should review their projected pension payouts and consider additional savings or investment strategies to cover any shortfalls. Newer employees might be less affected as they have less accrued in the pension plan and potentially more time to adjust their savings strategies in the 401(k) plan.

What educational resources are available through 3M to assist employees in understanding their retirement plan options following the pension freeze? How can employees leverage these resources to make informed decisions about their future and ensure that they understand the differences between the pension plan and their new 401(k) options?

Educational Resources at 3M: 3M is likely to offer a range of educational resources to help employees understand their new retirement plan options. Employees should look out for seminars, webinars, and one-on-one counseling opportunities that can provide guidance on navigating the changes. The HR department at 3M will also be a valuable resource for accessing personalized advice and detailed explanations of the differences between the old pension plans and the new 401(k) options.

In light of the recent changes to 3M's pension structure, what steps can employees take to maximize their retirement savings over the next five years before the freeze takes effect? What savings strategies are recommended for 3M employees to ensure that they are adequately prepared for retirement given this significant policy change?

How does the decision by 3M to move to a 401(k) retirement model reflect broader trends in the corporate world regarding pension plans? What are the potential benefits and drawbacks of this shift from both the companyâ€™s and the employeesâ€™ perspectives, and how can employees navigate this changing landscape?

Broader Trends in Pension Plans: 3M's decision reflects a broader trend in the corporate world where companies are shifting from defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans like 401(k)s. This shift allows companies to reduce the volatility of pension liabilities on their balance sheets and provides employees with potentially higher returns on their retirement savings, albeit with higher risks. Employees need to become more financially literate to navigate this landscape effectively.

What mechanisms does 3M have in place to provide ongoing communication and support regarding the changes to the pension plan? How can employees at 3M stay informed about updates and optimally utilize company meetings or counseling sessions to address their retirement concerns?

Ongoing Communication and Support at 3M: 3M is expected to provide ongoing communication and support to employees regarding the pension changes. Regular updates, FAQs, and dedicated channels for raising concerns, such as HR hotlines or dedicated email addresses, will be crucial. Attending scheduled meetings and participating in counseling sessions can help employees stay informed and prepare adequately for the future.

As the pension plans at 3M are frozen, what options do employees have if they are uncertain about their retirement strategy? How can 3M's HR department assist employees in evaluating their current financial situations and developing customized retirement plans?

Options for Uncertain Employees: For employees uncertain about their retirement strategy post-pension freeze, 3M's HR department can provide significant assistance. HR can offer tools for financial modeling and planning, assist in setting up meetings with financial planners, and provide detailed comparisons of various retirement strategies. Employees should actively seek out these resources and engage with HR to build a personalized retirement plan.

How will the freeze of pension plans impact the overall financial stability of 3M retirees, and what considerations should current employees keep in mind as they anticipate retirement? How does this shift align with 3Mâ€™s commitment to employee welfare and long-term planning for their staff?

Impact on Financial Stability of Retirees: The freeze of the pension plans at 3M could impact the financial stability of retirees, especially those close to retirement who have less time to adjust their savings strategies. Employees should review their anticipated income from the pension plan and assess any potential shortfalls. Diversifying investments and seeking ways to generate additional income during retirement can help mitigate the impact of the pension freeze.

If employees at 3M wish to engage with the company's Human Resources department to gain clarity on the new pension and retirement policy implementations, what is the most effective way to reach out? How can 3M staff gain access to additional support and resources related to their retirement options?

Engaging with HR for Clarity: Employees seeking clarity on the new pension and retirement policies at 3M should reach out to the HR department effectively. Utilizing company-provided channels such as HR portals, direct emails, or scheduled office hours can facilitate better understanding and access to resources. Engaging in open dialogues during HR-led sessions or through direct consultations can help employees gain the necessary support and guidance.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Transition to 401(k) plan, pension freeze by 2028, annuity transfer in 2024 covering $2.5B obligations for 23,000 retirees.

3M offers RSUs to its executives and eligible employees as part of its long-term incentive plan. RSUs vest over time and are intended to align employees' interests with shareholders.