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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Altria Group Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Altria Group Altria Group primarily relies on Carefirst BlueCross BlueShield as a healthcare provider. This partnership offers benefits to Altria's employees, ensuring access to a range of healthcare services. Brief on Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As 2026 approaches, Altria Group is bracing for significant increases in healthcare costs driven by broader trends affecting the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. With insurers expected to implement average premium hikes of around 18%, many states may see increases upwards of 60%. The expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies is projected to exacerbate these challenges, potentially leading to a staggering 75% rise in out-of-pocket costs for the majority of marketplace enrollees, including many of Altria's workforce. Such financial pressures could directly impact employee healthcare access and overall company wellness programs, emphasizing the need for proactive management of employee health benefits. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Altria Group employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Altria Group employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Altria Group employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Altria Group employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Altria Group preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Altria Group employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Altria Group with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the retirement plan at Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corporation ensure the financial security of its employees in retirement? What are the specific features and benefits incorporated into the plan that aim to provide a reliable income source for employees after they retire?

Financial Security in Retirement: The retirement plan at Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corporation (B&W) provides financial security through its defined benefit structure, which ensures a steady stream of income post-retirement. The plan integrates with the RAI 401(k) Savings Plan, Social Security, and personal savings to offer a comprehensive retirement package, helping employees secure a reliable income after they retire.

In what ways does the Broward Health Cash Balance Pension Plan accommodate employees who wish to retire early? Explain the eligibility requirements, benefits available upon early retirement, and how these may differ from benefits received at normal retirement age.

Integration with Social Security: B&W's retirement plan works in conjunction with Social Security benefits and individual savings to create a well-rounded retirement strategy. The retirement income calculation incorporates a Social Security Adjustment, which reduces the pension benefit by a portion of Social Security payments. Employees should consider the combined effect of these sources when planning their retirement income to ensure they meet their financial needs.

How does the vesting schedule work within the Broward Health Cash Balance Pension Plan, and what does it mean for employees in terms of their rights to benefits? Elaborate on how years of service impact vesting percentages and detail the consequences for employees who leave before becoming fully vested.

Eligibility for Early Retirement Pension: Eligibility for early retirement at B&W depends on the employee being at least 55 years old with a minimum of 10 years of Qualifying Service. The calculation of early retirement benefits considers factors like years of service and age, with reductions applied for retirement before age 60. Those with 30 years of service can avoid reductions even if they retire early.

What role does the Broward Health Pension Plan Committee play in the administration of the Cash Balance Pension Plan, and how does this committee ensure compliance with applicable laws and the financial soundness of the plan? Discuss the responsibilities of overseeing plan implementation and benefits management.

Payment Forms and Impact: B&W offers various forms of retirement payments, including single life annuities and joint and survivor annuities. Each option has different financial implications, with single life annuities offering higher payments but ending upon the retiree’s death, while joint annuities provide for a surviving spouse at a reduced rate. Employees must weigh these options to choose the one that best suits their financial goals.

How does the Broward Health Cash Balance Pension Plan address potential changes or amendments to its terms, and what protections are in place for employees' vested rights? Discuss the process for plan amendments and any circumstances under which the plan could be terminated.

Disability and Death Benefits: B&W’s retirement plan provides disability and pre-retirement death benefits, offering financial protection for employees and their families in unexpected circumstances. For example, a surviving spouse may receive a Pre-Retirement Surviving Spouse Annuity if the employee dies before retirement, ensuring continued financial support.

For employees with prior service history seeking to return to Broward Health, how does the Cash Balance Pension Plan facilitate the recognition of their past contributions and service? Discuss re-employment rules and how they affect benefit calculations for those returning after a break in service.

Steps to Initiate Retirement: To initiate the retirement process, employees must contact the Alight Benefits Center 60 to 90 days before their desired retirement date. The process includes understanding accrued benefits, selecting a payment form, and completing the required paperwork to ensure a smooth transition into retirement.

What options are available to employees of Broward Health regarding beneficiary designations, and how does this affect benefit distributions upon an employee's death? Detail the procedures for appointing a beneficiary and the implications of not having a designated beneficiary in place.

Accessing Benefits after Termination: Former employees who leave B&W before meeting the vesting requirements may not be eligible for full retirement benefits. However, those who complete at least five years of Qualifying Service before leaving are fully vested and can receive benefits when they reach the appropriate retirement age.

How does the Broward Health Cash Balance Pension Plan manage and calculate interest credits on cash balance accounts? Discuss the methodology for determining interest rates and the impact these credits have on overall retirement savings.

ERISA Rights: Employees participating in the B&W retirement plan are entitled to rights under ERISA, such as the right to receive information about the plan, review plan documents, and appeal denied benefit claims. These rights ensure that participants are well-informed and protected under federal law.

What challenges might Broward Health employees face when navigating the claim filing process for retirement benefits? Describe the steps involved in requesting benefits, what to do in case of a denied claim, and the importance of timely communications with the Plan Administrator.

Handling Unlocatable Participants: If participants cannot be located for benefit distribution, their payments are temporarily forfeited. However, B&W has a process to restore these benefits if the participant is later found, without the addition of interest. Employees should keep their contact information updated to avoid such issues.

How can employees contact Broward Health to learn more about the Cash Balance Pension Plan and its provisions? Provide details on the available resources, including contact information for the Employee Benefits department, and explain how these resources can assist employees in understanding their retirement options.

Contact Information for Resources: Employees can contact the RAI Benefits Administration Committee for plan-related questions or the Alight Benefits Center for administrative assistance. The Alight Benefits Center can be reached at 1-866-342-6986 or through the website www.RAIbenefits.com for help with retirement processes and questions(Brown_and_Williamson_To…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Name of Pension Plan: Identify the official name of Altria Group's pension plan. Eligibility: Determine the years of service and age qualifications required to qualify for the pension plan. Pension Formula: Find details on the pension formula used to calculate benefits. Name of 401(k) Plan: Identify the official name of Altria Group's 401(k) plan. Eligibility: Determine who qualifies for the 401(k) plan.

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Altria Group announced a significant restructuring effort aimed at streamlining operations and reducing costs. This included a reduction in workforce across various departments, impacting hundreds of employees. The decision to restructure is partly in response to declining cigarette sales and shifts in consumer preferences towards reduced-risk products. It’s crucial to monitor these changes given the broader economic challenges and evolving regulatory environment impacting the tobacco industry.

Stock Options: Altria Group offers stock options as part of its compensation packages. Employees eligible for stock options typically include executives and senior management. Stock options give employees the right to purchase company stock at a predetermined price. RSUs: Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) are granted to employees as a form of compensation. These units vest over time, meaning employees receive the actual stock only after meeting certain conditions, such as continuing employment with the company. RSUs are commonly used to retain key employees. Eligibility: Generally, stock options and RSUs are provided to higher-level employees and executives within Altria Group. They are often part of long-term incentive plans designed to align employees' interests with the company's performance.

2024: Altria announced enhancements to its health benefits package, including increased contributions to HSAs and expanded coverage for mental health services. The company has also introduced new wellness programs aimed at improving overall employee well-being. 2023: Altria made changes to its medical plan options, introducing a new PPO plan and offering additional resources for managing chronic conditions. The company has been actively promoting its wellness initiatives, including mental health support and fitness programs.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Altria Group at 6601 West Broad Street, Richmond, VA 23230; or by calling them at (804) 274-2200.

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