New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Ameren Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Provides comprehensive health insurance including medical, dental, and vision, plus mental health support and wellness programs. Employees can choose from multiple plan options, making it important to compare with ACA marketplace offerings as 2026 premium hikes approach Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Ameren employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Ameren employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Ameren employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Ameren employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Ameren preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Ameren employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Ameren with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Ameren retirement plan design ensure that employees' benefits under the Union Cash Balance Plan grow over time, and what specific features contribute to this growth? Discuss how amortization methodologies and interest credits are determined for Ameren employees, particularly in relation to age and years of service.

Growth of Benefits: Ameren’s Union Cash Balance Plan ensures growth through annual interest credits and regular credits based on the employee’s age and pensionable earnings. Interest credits are applied at a rate of 5%, subject to change yearly based on Treasury rates plus an additional 1%. Employees also receive regular credits that increase with age, ranging from 3% to 8% of pensionable earnings(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

In what ways can employees of Ameren leverage the various payment methods available to them upon retirement? Elaborate on how the choice between lump-sum payments and annuities impacts their financial planning post-retirement.

Payment Methods: Ameren offers employees flexibility in receiving benefits as a lump sum or annuity. Lump sum payments provide immediate access to all benefits, which can be rolled over into other retirement accounts, while annuities provide steady income for life. Choosing between these affects financial planning by balancing immediate liquidity versus long-term income security(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

What are the implications of leaving Ameren before reaching retirement age, particularly in regard to vesting and benefit access? Discuss the conditions that affect an employee's eligibility and the importance of completing the required years of service.

Leaving Before Retirement: If an employee leaves Ameren before reaching retirement age but has completed three years of service, they are vested and entitled to their full cash balance account. If an employee leaves before vesting, their account is forfeited. Completing the required years of service is critical for retaining benefits(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

How does the Ameren Corporation balance contributions to the retirement plan with the need to comply with IRS regulations, specifically with the aim of avoiding a "top heavy" classification? Analyze how this impacts employee benefits and the strategies used by Ameren to ensure compliance.

Compliance with IRS Regulations: Ameren ensures compliance with IRS “top heavy” rules by monitoring the allocation of contributions to avoid excessive benefits going to key employees. If more than 60% of benefits are allocated to key employees, Ameren must provide minimum benefits to non-key employees, impacting overall contributions and plan design(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…)(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

What are the survivor benefits options available under Ameren's Union Cash Balance Plan, and how are these benefits calculated for spouses and non-spouse beneficiaries? Provide details on how varying age differences between an employee and their beneficiary affect these calculations.

Survivor Benefits: Under the Union Cash Balance Plan, a spouse beneficiary receives survivor benefits either as a lump sum or lifetime annuity. Non-spouse beneficiaries receive a lump sum. The calculation of survivor benefits adjusts based on the age difference between the employee and the beneficiary(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

How do the changes in IRS limits for retirement accounts in 2024 potentially affect employees of Ameren when planning for retirement? Discuss the strategic considerations Ameren employees should take into account in relation to contribution limits and catch-up provisions.

IRS Limits and 2024 Changes: Changes to IRS contribution limits in 2024 may affect employees by altering the maximum they can contribute to retirement accounts, including catch-up provisions for those over 50. Ameren employees should monitor these changes to maximize their retirement savings strategies(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

In what ways does the Ameren Corporation's retirement plan administration ensure transparency and participant rights, particularly under ERISA? Explore the various rights employees have regarding access to plan documents and the recourse available in the event of a benefit claim denial.

ERISA Rights and Transparency: Ameren ensures transparency and adherence to ERISA, giving employees the right to access plan documents, including the SPD and financial reports. In case of benefit claim denials, employees can appeal and, if necessary, pursue legal action(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

How can Ameren employees contact the company to learn more about their retirement benefits and navigate the complexities of the Union Cash Balance Plan? Discuss the available resources and support channels for employees to gain clarity on their benefits.

Contact for Plan Information: Ameren employees can contact the company through its pension benefits line at 877.7my.Ameren for details on retirement benefits and support with navigating the Union Cash Balance Plan. Online resources like myAmeren Pension Benefits also provide account information and assistance(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

What specific factors influence the calculation of interest credits in the Union Cash Balance Plan, and how do these credits affect the overall retirement savings of Ameren employees? Analyze the importance of understanding these factors in relation to future financial security.

Interest Credits: Interest credits are determined based on a fixed rate (5%) or the sum of Treasury Constant Maturity rates plus an additional percentage, ensuring steady account growth. Understanding how these credits accumulate is essential for predicting future retirement savings(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

How does the flexibility provided in the Ameren retirement plan enhance employee satisfaction and encourage long-term retention? Discuss the impact of features such as portability of benefits and options for account growth on employee engagement.

Flexibility and Retention: The portability of benefits and the ability to choose between lump sum or annuity payments enhances employee satisfaction and retention. Employees can take their vested account balance if they leave Ameren, encouraging long-term engagement(Ameren_Corporation_Sept…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

News: Ameren has announced a major restructuring plan involving the reduction of its workforce by 5% and a review of its pension benefits structure. The company is also implementing changes to its 401(k) plan, including reducing matching contributions to align with cost-saving measures.
Importance: Addressing this news is crucial due to the current economic uncertainty, which affects investment decisions and tax planning. The reduction in benefits and pensions could impact employees' retirement planning and financial stability, making it essential to stay informed about these changes. Additionally, the restructuring may influence Ameren's stock performance and investor sentiment in the broader market.

Additional Articles

Check Out Articles for Ameren employees

For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Ameren at 1901 Chouteau Avenue St. Louis, MO 63103; or by calling them at (800) 755-5000.