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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Arconic Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Arconic Arconic, a leading provider of aluminum and aerospace products, collaborates with various insurance companies to offer healthcare benefits to its employees. The primary healthcare providers that partner with Arconic vary by location and include well-known insurers like UnitedHealthcare, Aetna, and Blue Cross Blue Shield, among others. Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, healthcare costs are expected to rise significantly, impacting employers and employees alike, including those at Arconic. The projected average increase in health benefit costs could reach nearly 8.5%, attributed to a perfect storm of higher medical expenses and the potential expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies from the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Many employers are responding by considering changes to plan designs that shift more costs to employees. This could lead to out-of-pocket premium increases that may exceed 75% for a large portion of the workforce, making it critical for companies like Arconic to strategize their healthcare offerings effectively to mitigate financial impacts on their employees. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Arconic employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Arconic employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Arconic employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Arconic employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Arconic preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Arconic employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Arconic with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What retirement benefits and options are available to employees of Arconic Corporation under the Arconic Corp. Pension Plan A, and how do these benefits change based on factors such as age, service length, and retirement category? Employees of Arconic Corporation should understand their eligibility requirements for normal retirement, early retirement, and disability benefits as outlined in the company's pension plan documentation.

The Arconic Corp. Pension Plan A provides retirement benefits based on a formula that considers average earnings and service length, with normal retirement eligibility at age 65 and at least five years of service. Early retirement is available at age 55 with 10 years of service, with benefits reduced based on actuarial assumptions. Disability benefits are available after 10 years of service, and preretirement death benefits offer 50% of accrued benefits to surviving spouses(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

How does the frozen state of benefits and service accruals impact current and future retirees at Arconic Corporation? Employees should evaluate how the freeze, effective April 1, 2018, affects their retirement planning and what measures they can take based on their individual circumstances to optimize their retirement benefits.

The frozen state of benefits and service accruals, effective April 1, 2018, means no new service credits or compensation increases are factored into pension calculations for current employees. This freeze affects retirement planning as employees must now rely on frozen benefits and other savings plans to meet retirement needs. It’s important for employees to reassess their financial goals and consider additional investments to optimize retirement benefits(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

In what ways can Arconic Corporation employees ensure they meet the requirements for spousal benefits outlined in the pension plan, especially regarding preretirement and postretirement scenarios? Understanding the specifics of eligibility and benefits, such as the surviving spouse benefit calculations, is crucial for employees planning for retirement.

To ensure eligibility for spousal benefits, employees need to meet certain requirements. Preretirement surviving spouse benefits require at least five years of service, and postretirement spousal benefits reduce the participant’s monthly benefit by 5%, with 50% of the reduced amount paid to the spouse if the participant dies first. Employees should understand these provisions to plan for their family’s financial security in retirement(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

What are the implications of the actuarial assumptions used by Arconic Corporation in valuing its pension obligations, and how do these assumptions affect the funding of the retirement plan? Arconic Corporation employees should examine how changes in interest rates and mortality tables influence the company's ability to meet its pension obligations.

Actuarial assumptions used in Arconic Corp.’s pension valuations, such as interest rates and mortality tables, directly impact the funding of retirement plans. Changes in these assumptions can affect the pension plan’s obligations and the amount of required contributions, making it important for employees to understand how these factors influence the stability and sufficiency of their retirement benefits(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

Can you explain the process by which Arconic Corporation employees can appeal decisions related to their pension benefits, and what support does the company provide during this process? Understanding the proper channels for appeals and the types of documentation required can be vital for employees facing issues with their pension benefits.

Employees can appeal pension benefit decisions through Arconic Corporation’s formal process, which includes submitting an appeal with supporting documentation. The company provides guidelines on what documentation is required, and employees should follow these closely to ensure their case is reviewed thoroughly. The support provided can include detailed responses to clarify benefit calculations and decisions(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

What resources are available to Arconic Corporation employees to help them make informed decisions about their retirement benefits, and how can they access these resources efficiently? Employees should know where to find comprehensive materials and support services concerning their retirement plans.

Arconic Corporation offers various resources to assist employees in making informed decisions about their retirement benefits. Employees can access comprehensive plan documents, financial planning tools, and counseling services through the company’s HR department and retirement plan administrators to ensure they fully understand their options(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

How does the Arconic Corporation define "average earnings" for calculating retirement benefits, and what methodologies are in place to ensure accuracy in these calculations? Understanding the basis for average earnings will allow employees to better project their pension benefits and prepare for retirement.

Average earnings, used in calculating retirement benefits, are defined as the average of the five highest consecutive calendar years of compensation within the last ten years for most participants. For certain participants, different rules apply based on service and plan conditions. Employees can review their earnings history to ensure accurate calculations and projections for retirement planning(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

What criteria does Arconic Corporation use to determine eligibility for deferred vested benefits, and how can employees maximize their advantages in this area? Employees need to be aware of the vesting schedule and how to plan for potential career transitions while maintaining their benefits.

Eligibility for deferred vested benefits in Arconic Corporation’s plan requires five years of service, and benefits can commence as early as age 55, with reductions based on actuarial calculations. Employees should plan career transitions carefully to maximize their vested benefits, especially when considering leaving the company before retirement(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

How can Arconic Corporation employees prepare for the potential tax implications of their pension benefits upon retirement, especially in light of IRS regulations for 2024? Being informed about tax strategies related to retirement income can significantly enhance retirees' financial wellbeing.

Employees preparing for retirement should understand the tax implications of pension benefits, particularly in light of IRS regulations for 2024. Strategies such as tax deferral and proper timing of distributions can help minimize the tax burden on retirement income, significantly enhancing financial outcomes(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

What contact methods does Arconic Corporation provide for employees wishing to learn more about their pension plan details, and how can employees best utilize these methods to get their queries resolved? Understanding the effective ways to communicate with the company for assistance is key for employees navigating their retirement benefits.

Arconic Corporation provides multiple contact methods for pension-related inquiries, including direct access to HR representatives and pension plan administrators. Employees are encouraged to utilize these resources effectively by preparing questions in advance and keeping detailed records of their communications for follow-up and clarity(Arconic Corporation_ Ja…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Arconic has announced a major restructuring plan that includes significant layoffs across its North American facilities. The restructuring is aimed at streamlining operations and reducing costs amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Additionally, Arconic is revising its pension and 401(k) benefits in response to shifting market conditions and regulatory changes.