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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Avaya Holdings Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Avaya Holdings offers health insurance coverage to its U.S. employees through Aetna-administered plans. Benefits include medical, dental, vision, and life insurance, along with access to Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), disability coverage, and preventive care services. Avaya Holdings Healthcare costs in the United States are projected to continue rising through 2026, with insurers proposing significant premium increases for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans. A recent analysis found that ACA insurers are seeking a median premium increase of 15% for 2026, marking the largest hike since 2018. This surge is attributed to factors such as the anticipated expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, rising medical costsincluding expensive medications and increased hospital staysand a shift in the risk pool towards higher-cost enrollees. Without the renewal of enhanced subsidies, out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees could increase by more than 75% on average. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Avaya Holdings employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Avaya Holdings employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Avaya Holdings employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Avaya Holdings employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Avaya Holdings preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Avaya Holdings employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Avaya Holdings with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How can employees at Avaya Inc. ensure they are adequately prepared for retirement, considering the various types of pensions available under the Avaya Inc. Pension Plan? What steps should be taken to understand the key features of the pension plan, and how can they assess their individual needs relative to the benefits offered by Avaya Inc.?

Preparation for Retirement at Avaya Inc.: Employees at Avaya Inc. should first review the company’s Summary Plan Description for the pension plan details, which outline the types of pensions available and the processes for claiming them. It's crucial to understand the different pension types—service, deferred vested, and disability pensions—each with specific eligibility criteria and benefits. To prepare adequately, employees should estimate their pension benefits using tools provided by Avaya Inc., attend financial planning seminars offered by the company, and consider consulting with a financial advisor to assess how the pension fits into their broader retirement strategy.

Can you elaborate on the service pension eligibility criteria set by Avaya Inc.? How does age and credited service interact with this criterion, and what unique circumstances should employees at Avaya Inc. be aware of that may affect their eligibility for a service pension?

Service Pension Eligibility Criteria at Avaya Inc.: Eligibility for a service pension at Avaya Inc. is determined by age and credited service. Employees qualify at any age with 30 years of service, at age 50 with 25 years, at 55 with 20 years, and at 65 with 10 years. It’s essential for employees to understand that these criteria are strict; for instance, an employee aged 51 with 24 years of service does not qualify. Employees should plan their retirement age accordingly and consult with HR to confirm their credited service years.

What are the implications of early retirement under the Avaya Inc. Pension Plan? Employees at Avaya Inc. who are considering early retirement should understand both the benefits and potential losses associated with taking retirement benefits before the age of 55.

Implications of Early Retirement: Opting for early retirement at Avaya Inc. can lead to reduced pension benefits, especially if retirement occurs before age 55 with less than 30 years of service. The plan applies an early commencement discount, reducing the pension by 1/2% for each month before age 55. Employees considering early retirement should carefully evaluate how the reduction impacts their financial stability and may want to strategize with HR or a financial advisor to mitigate the reduction's effect.

What is the process for employees at Avaya Inc. to claim a deferred vested pension, and what specific conditions must be met for them to initiate this process? Employees must be informed about the timeline required for claims as well as the potential impact of their age and service duration on their pension amounts.

Claiming a Deferred Vested Pension: To claim a deferred vested pension at Avaya Inc., employees must meet certain conditions, such as being vested and having terminated employment. The pension commencement generally aligns with reaching age 65 or upon earlier termination. Employees must contact the Avaya Pension Service Center to initiate the process, providing necessary documentation and adhering to specified timelines, ensuring they understand the impact of early commencement on their pension amounts.

In what ways does Avaya Inc. support employees returning to work after retirement? Specifically, how does reemployment affect the pension benefits that retirees receive? Employees should consider how their decisions to return to work may minimize or suspend their pension benefits.

Returning to Work Post-Retirement: If an employee at Avaya Inc. returns to work after retirement, their pension benefits might be suspended or reduced, depending on the terms outlined in the pension plan. This policy is intended to adjust benefits when retirees re-enter the workforce, potentially affecting their financial planning. Employees should verify the specific rules with the pension service center and consider the financial implications before deciding to return to work.

How does the Mandatory Portability Agreement (MPA) influence the retirement benefits of Avaya Inc. employees transitioning between positions in affiliated companies? Employees should understand how service credit is recognized and transferred under the MPA and its impact on their retirement planning.

Impact of the Mandatory Portability Agreement (MPA): The MPA affects Avaya Inc. employees transitioning between positions within affiliated companies, allowing for the transfer of service credits. This agreement is crucial for employees moving within the company structure, as it ensures that their pension benefits are maintained and accurately calculated based on cumulative service, fostering seamless transitions and sustained benefit accrual.

What key information should employees at Avaya Inc. know regarding their rights under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) as they navigate the pension benefit process? Understanding ERISA rights is crucial for employees to effectively advocate for their benefits and understand their protections.

Understanding ERISA Rights at Avaya Inc.: Employees at Avaya Inc. should be aware of their rights under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), which safeguards employees' benefits. Understanding these rights is essential for effectively managing their pension plans and ensuring they receive all entitled benefits. Employees should familiarize themselves with the claim and appeal procedures provided in the plan documents to advocate effectively for their rights.

How do survivor benefits work under the Avaya Inc. Pension Plan? Employees and their beneficiaries should be aware of the conditions under which these benefits are paid and how they can designate beneficiaries to ensure compliance with Avaya Inc. policies.

Survivor Benefits under Avaya Inc. Pension Plan: Avaya Inc.'s pension plan provides survivor benefits, which are crucial for employees to arrange financial security for their beneficiaries. Understanding the conditions under which these benefits are paid and how to designate beneficiaries properly ensures that the employees' families are protected in case of the employee's death.

Can you explain the significance of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) in relation to the retirement benefits that employees of Avaya Inc. may expect? Understanding the role of the PBGC could help clarify what protections are in place for employees in the case of plan termination.

Role of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC): The PBGC plays a protective role for Avaya Inc. employees by ensuring that pension benefits are secure even if the plan faces financial difficulties. Employees should understand how the PBGC's coverage affects them, particularly in scenarios where the company’s pension plan might be terminated or underfunded.

If Avaya Inc. employees want to learn more about their pension benefits or have specific questions about the retirement process, who should they contact and what resources are available to them? This question prompts employees to engage with the Avaya Inc. Pension Service Center and access information crucial for their retirement planning.

Accessing Pension Information and Assistance: Employees seeking more information about their pension benefits or needing specific help regarding their retirement process should contact the Avaya Pension Service Center. This center provides detailed guidance, handles claims and appeals, and offers comprehensive support to ensure employees understand and can effectively manage their pension benefits.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Avaya Holdings has announced a major restructuring plan involving significant layoffs and changes to their benefits and retirement plans. The company is focusing on streamlining operations to improve profitability, which includes reducing its workforce and altering pension and 401(k) contributions for current employees.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Avaya Holdings at 350 Mt Kemble Ave Morristown, NJ 7960; or by calling them at +1 908-953-6000.