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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Avery Dennison Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Avery Dennison Avery Dennison has partnered with various healthcare providers for employee health benefits; however, specific provider affiliations may vary by region and specific employee health plans. To obtain the most accurate and relevant information regarding Avery Dennison's current healthcare provider, it is advisable for employees to consult their Human Resources department or employee benefits documentation. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases for Avery Dennison in 2026 In 2026, healthcare costs for Avery Dennison employees utilizing Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans may soar as premium hikes are projected to exceed 60% in some states. This stark increase is driven by the potential expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies and rising medical costs. As many as 92% of marketplace enrollees could face an average out-of-pocket premium increase of over 75%. Employees should proactively assess their health plan options now to mitigate financial impacts and explore available employer-sponsored alternatives. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Avery Dennison employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Avery Dennison employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Avery Dennison employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Avery Dennison employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Avery Dennison preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Avery Dennison employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Avery Dennison with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the transition of the Avery Dennison U.S. Pension Plan to a group annuity contract affect current employees who are nearing retirement, and what steps should they consider taking during this transition to ensure their benefits are secure from Avery Dennison?

Current Employees Nearing Retirement: The transition to a group annuity contract should not affect the accrued benefits of current employees nearing retirement. The terms of the annuity payments will match those provided by the previous pension plan. Employees should ensure their personal information is updated and consult with the Avery Dennison Retirement Center to understand the timing of their benefits commencement during the transition period.

In what ways does Avery Dennison support employees who are considering their options for retirement benefits, particularly those who may not have previously explored their pension plan details prior to the transition to an insurer?

Support for Employees Exploring Retirement Options: Avery Dennison assists employees by providing detailed information through their retirement center and online resources. Employees are encouraged to review the changes and implications of the annuity transition and contact the retirement center for personalized advice, particularly if they have not previously explored their pension plan details.

Can you elaborate on the implications of the group annuity contract for employees who have recently retired from Avery Dennison, particularly concerning how their benefits are administered compared to the previous pension plan structure?

Recently Retired Employees: For those who have recently retired, the administration of their benefits will shift from Avery Dennison to the selected insurer but this should not change the amount, timing, or form of the benefits they receive. This ensures continuity in the administration of benefits without affecting the retirees directly.

For employees currently receiving benefits through Avery Dennison, how will the transition to the selected insurer impact the continuity and reliability of their monthly payments, and what measures are in place to safeguard these payments?

Continuity and Reliability of Payments: The transition involves the selection of a highly rated insurer, ensuring the reliability of ongoing monthly payments. Avery Dennison has put measures in place, including a thorough selection process involving an independent fiduciary, to safeguard these payments.

What are the specific protections offered to beneficiaries under the group annuity contracts once the Pension Plan transitions away from Avery Dennison's administration, and how do these protections differ from those provided under the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)?

Protections for Beneficiaries: After the transition, the state guaranty associations, rather than the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), will offer protection to beneficiaries. This shift means that while the federal insurance via PBGC will no longer apply, state-level insurance, which has its own limits and guarantees, will take over.

In light of the transition to the group annuity, how should employees at Avery Dennison go about updating their personal information, such as addresses or banking details, and what timelines should they be aware of during this process?

Updating Personal Information: Employees should update their personal details such as addresses or banking information through the Avery Dennison Retirement Center by specific deadlines during the transition period. Post-transition, such updates should be made directly with the new insurer.

How does Avery Dennison ensure that the financial health of the selected insurer for the group annuity contract is sufficient to meet the obligations to its retirees, and what standards are applied during the selection process?

Financial Health of the Insurer: Avery Dennison ensures the financial adequacy of the selected insurer through a rigorous selection process managed by an independent fiduciary. This includes evaluations of the insurer's financial stability, claims-paying ability, and overall business practices.

After the transition to an insurer is complete, what should employees of Avery Dennison do if they have questions regarding their retirement benefits, and how will communication be handled moving forward to ensure clarity and support?

Post-Transition Communication: After the transition, employees should direct their questions regarding retirement benefits to the selected insurer's service center. Avery Dennison will provide contact details and further instructions in a welcome kit following the transition.

How does the U.S. tax legislation impacts the retirement benefits of Avery Dennison employees who are transitioning to a group annuity, particularly concerning taxation of these annuity payments during retirement?

Impact of U.S. Tax Legislation: The transition to a group annuity may affect the taxation of retirement benefits. Employees are advised to consult with tax professionals to understand the specific impacts based on their personal circumstances.

For employees seeking more information regarding the details of their retirement benefits and the implications of the insurer transition, how can they contact Avery Dennison to discuss their specific circumstances and gain clarity on any outstanding questions?

Accessing Further Information: Employees seeking more details about their retirement benefits post-transition can contact Avery Dennison through their designated Retirement Center or access information via the company's dedicated benefits website. This is crucial for obtaining clarity on specific circumstances and outstanding queries regarding the transition.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Avery Dennison announced a major restructuring plan that includes layoffs affecting approximately 10% of its global workforce. The company is also revising its pension and 401(k) plans to better align with current economic conditions.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Avery Dennison at 207 Goode Ave Glendale, CA 91203; or by calling them at +1 626-304-2000.