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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Baxter International Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Baxter International Baxter International primarily partners with a variety of global healthcare providers to ensure effective distribution and management of its medical products and services. Notable partnerships exist with organizations like the University of Chicago Medicine and various hospital systems across the United States, focusing on enhancing patient care through innovative medical technologies. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As we approach 2026, substantial hikes in healthcare costs are anticipated, particularly within the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Reports indicate that healthcare insurance premiums could surge by over 60% in some states, driven by higher medical costs and the possible expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies. The Kaiser Family Foundation warns that nearly 22 million marketplace enrollees may face premium increases of up to 75%, exacerbating the financial challenges for many consumers. These dynamics create a precarious situation as both insurers and patients navigate escalating out-of-pocket expenses, raising concerns about access to affordable healthcare in the coming year. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Baxter International employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Baxter International employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Baxter International employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Baxter International employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Baxter International preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Baxter International employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Baxter International with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the eligibility requirements for participating in the Baxter International Inc. Pension Plan, and how have they impacted employees who were hired after the participation closed date? Employees of Baxter International Inc. should be aware of the specific conditions that dictate eligibility to participate in the pension plan, as these factors determine the benefits they can receive upon retirement. Understanding how these age and service requirements are defined can significantly affect an employeeâ€™s retirement planning and financial security.

Eligibility Requirements for the Baxter International Inc. Pension Plan Baxter International Inc. typically defines pension plan eligibility based on factors like age, years of service, and employment status at the participation closing date. Employees hired after the plan closure would not be eligible, affecting their long-term retirement planning and necessitating alternative retirement savings strategies.

How does Baxter International Inc. calculate the final average pay for pension benefits, and what are the implications of compensation limits set by the IRS for employees nearing retirement? As employees approach retirement, knowledge about how Baxter International Inc. determines final average pay based on their earnings is crucial since it directly impacts the pension benefits they will receive. Employees must also consider the IRS limits on eligible compensation to fully understand how their eventual pension payouts will be calculated.

Calculation of Final Average Pay at Baxter International Inc. The final average pay for Baxter International Inc.’s pension benefits is likely calculated based on an employee's highest earnings years near retirement. This calculation could be subject to IRS compensation limits, which cap the earnings used in the benefit formula, potentially reducing the pension benefits for higher-earning employees as they near retirement.

What options are available for Baxter International Inc. employees when they decide to retire early, and how do these options affect their overall pension benefits? Early retirement can have significant financial implications for employees of Baxter International Inc., making it important for them to understand their choices and how each option might influence their long-term pension benefits. This includes looking at reductions in benefits and the age-related criteria that might apply.

Early Retirement Options at Baxter International Inc. Baxter International Inc. may offer options like reduced benefits or specific early retirement packages. These options could lead to lower pension payouts compared to retiring at the normal age, influenced by factors such as the number of years before normal retirement age and the actuarial reductions applied.

How has the freezing of the Baxter International Inc. pension plan in 2022 created changes for current and future participants regarding their accumulated benefits? Employees must grasp the consequences of the 2022 freeze, as it halts any additional benefit accruals and what this means in terms of vesting and distribution of benefits upon retirement. This shift may affect their retirement funding strategies and financial future.

Impact of the 2022 Pension Plan Freeze at Baxter International Inc. The freezing of the pension plan in 2022 means Baxter International Inc. ceased the accrual of benefits for participants as of that date. This affects employees' retirement planning, as no further benefits are accrued beyond the freeze, potentially requiring them to seek alternative ways to enhance their retirement savings.

What are the potential tax implications for Baxter International Inc. employees when opting for different pension payment options upon retirement? Employees should carefully evaluate the tax consequences of various distribution choices within the Baxter International Inc. pension plan to make informed decisions that optimize their financial outcomes in retirement. This requires an understanding of how taxes are applied to lump-sum payments versus annuity distributions.

Tax Implications of Pension Payment Options at Baxter International Inc. The choice between lump-sum payments and annuities at Baxter International Inc. has distinct tax implications. Lump sums could be subject to immediate taxation, potentially at higher rates, whereas annuities provide a steady income stream and may be taxed more favorably depending on individual tax situations.

How does Baxter International Inc. accommodate rehires and transfers regarding their prior pension benefits, and what policies govern these scenarios? Understanding the specific rules concerning rehires at Baxter International Inc. can help former employees plan their career strategies and assess the impact on their pension benefits. Employees need clarity on how their previously accrued benefits are handled in such situations.

Rehire and Transfer Policies Regarding Pension Benefits at Baxter International Inc. For employees rehired or transferred at Baxter International Inc., pension benefits previously accrued may be reinstated or continued, depending on the company’s specific policies on service crediting and benefit calculation for returning employees.

What rights and protections do Baxter International Inc. employees have under ERISA concerning their pension benefits, and how can they enforce these rights? Employees should be aware of their entitlements under ERISA to protect their interests in the Baxter International Inc. Pension Plan, including the procedures they can follow to challenge any denials of benefits. This knowledge empowers employees to safeguard their financial future effectively.

ERISA Rights and Protections for Employees of Baxter International Inc. Under ERISA, Baxter International Inc. employees are entitled to certain protections regarding their pension benefits, including the right to receive plan information, appeal denied claims, and sue for benefits and breaches of fiduciary duty. This legal framework ensures employees can effectively manage and protect their retirement benefits.

How does Baxter International Inc. ensure that pension benefits are secure, especially in the event of a plan termination or freezing event? Employees must comprehend the safeguards in place to protect their retirement assets in the event of potential changes to the pension plan status, which include federal agency involvement and how their vested rights are preserved.

Security of Pension Benefits at Baxter International Inc. In the event of plan termination or freezing, Baxter International Inc. must ensure that employees' pension benefits are secured, typically through insurance policies or federal agency guarantees such as those provided by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), safeguarding benefits against company insolvency or plan underfunding.

What steps should Baxter International Inc. employees take to prepare for their eventual retirement in light of the details specified in the pension plan description? Retirement preparation involves a comprehensive understanding of the elements laid out in the Baxter International Inc. Pension Plan, including benefit calculations, retirement timing, and management of resources. Employees should consider this information when planning for a successful transition into retirement.

Preparation Steps for Retirement for Employees of Baxter International Inc. Employees should familiarize themselves with the details of the pension plan, such as benefit calculation methods, the impact of early retirement, and the integration of other retirement income sources. Engaging in financial planning and consulting with pension plan administrators or financial advisors can also help ensure a well-prepared retirement.

How can employees at Baxter International Inc. contact the company for more information regarding their pension plan and available benefits? Employees who seek clarity or assistance regarding their pension plan should know the appropriate channels and contact details to engage with Baxter International Inc. effectively. Resources available, including telephone numbers and administrative contacts, are paramount for employees navigating their retirement options.

Contacting Baxter International Inc. for Information on Pension Plans Employees needing further information or assistance regarding the Baxter International Inc. pension plan should contact the company’s HR department or pension plan administrator. Contact details are typically provided in the employee handbook or directly through the company's internal HR communication channels.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Baxter International announced a significant restructuring plan aimed at reducing operational costs, including a reduction in workforce across several departments. Additionally, there are changes to their employee benefits program.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Baxter International at 1 Baxter Pkwy Deerfield, IL 60015; or by calling them at +1 224-948-2000.