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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Becton Dickinson Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Becton Dickinson Becton Dickinson and Company (BD) is a global medical technology company that provides a wide range of medical devices, instrument systems, and reagents. While BD does not serve as a healthcare provider itself, it supplies essential products and technologies that healthcare providers utilize. Its offerings include items critical for diagnostics, medication management, and infection prevention, which are crucial for hospitals, outpatient facilities, and laboratories. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 for Becton Dickinson In 2026, healthcare costs could rise significantly, impacting Becton Dickinson and its operations. Factors such as the anticipated expiration of enhanced premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are expected to contribute to steep insurance premium increases, potentially exceeding 75% for many consumers. This scenario may drive more healthcare consumers out of the market, leading to reduced demand for medical devices and products. Coupled with rising medical costs and inflation, Becton Dickinson may face challenges in pricing its products competitively while cushioning the effects of increased healthcare expenditure on its customer base. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Becton Dickinson employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Becton Dickinson employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Becton Dickinson employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Becton Dickinson employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Becton Dickinson preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Becton Dickinson employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Becton Dickinson with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Becton Dickinson and Company defined benefit plan differ from the cash balance plan in terms of eligibility and benefit calculation? Employees at Becton Dickinson and Company should be aware of how their retirement options and benefit calculations are structured, especially considering the historical context and the changes made after

Defined Benefit vs. Cash Balance Plan: The Becton Dickinson and Company defined benefit plan and cash balance plan differ significantly in terms of eligibility and benefit calculations. The defined benefit plan, which was the original format, calculates benefits based on the employee's final average pay, age, and years of service. On the other hand, the cash balance plan, introduced in 2007, provides a hypothetical account balance that grows with defined pay and interest credits. For eligibility, new hires after January 1, 2018, cannot join either plan, reflecting a closure to new entrants. Those rehired or transferred within the company after this date also cannot accrue new benefits under the cash balance plan.

This question encompasses the differences in participation rules, the implications of being hired before or after January 1, 2018, and how various employment classifications affect benefits.

Pension Benefits Calculation: Under the BD Retirement Plan, pension benefits are calculated based on 'Total Compensation,' which includes various forms of income like base salary, bonuses, and other regular compensations. The benefit is determined by 'Credited Service' and 'Vesting Service,' impacting the final benefit amount. Vesting in the plan occurs after five years of service, ensuring that employees are entitled to benefits regardless of subsequent employment duration.

In what ways are pension benefits and service calculated under the Becton Dickinson and Company BD Retirement Plan? The complexities involved in determining the pension benefit calculation are crucial for employees to understand as they plan for retirement. A discussion on how Total Compensation, Credited Service, and Vesting Service impact the final benefit amount will provide clarity to employees regarding their financial planning as they approach retirement.

Maximum Benefit Limits: Employees should be aware of IRS-imposed limits on contributions and benefits under retirement plans. For 2018, the compensation limit recognized for pension calculations was $275,000, adjusted annually for inflation. This affects the projected retirement benefits and requires employees to stay informed about annual adjustments to plan accordingly.

What specific maximum benefit limits should employees at Becton Dickinson and Company be aware of regarding their retirement plans and how do these limits adapt annually? Understanding the implications of IRS limits for defined benefit plans and cash balance plans is vital for employees at Becton Dickinson and Company. This question would delve into how annual adjustments might affect their projected retirement benefits and the importance of staying informed about these limits.

Addressing Discrepancies or Denial of Benefits: If discrepancies or wrongful denials occur concerning retirement benefits, Becton Dickinson and Company employees should contact the Plan Administrator. The process includes filing claims and understanding the rights to appeal under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). This structured approach helps employees rectify issues with their retirement benefits effectively.

How can Becton Dickinson and Company employees address discrepancies in their benefit calculations or if they believe they have been wrongfully denied benefits? The processes for appealing decisions made regarding retirement benefits can greatly impact an employee's financial future. This question would outline the steps employees can take, including contacting the Plan Administrator and the importance of understanding their rights under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA).

Role of Committees in Managing the Retirement Plan: The Plan Administrative Committee and the Investment Committee play critical roles in overseeing the BD Retirement Plan. The former handles the plan's administration, ensuring compliance and managing benefit claims, while the latter focuses on the investment of plan assets. Employees can seek clarification or get involved by attending committee meetings or contacting them directly for specific inquiries.

What roles do the Plan Administrative Committee and the Investment Committee play in managing the BD Retirement Plan of Becton Dickinson and Company, and how can employees get involved or seek clarification on their plans? Employees interested in understanding the governance of their retirement plan will benefit from knowing who oversees the administration and investment of their benefits and how they can participate in discussions or seek advice.

Impact of Early Retirement: Early retirement affects the calculation of pension benefits, which are reduced based on the number of years retirement is taken before the normal retirement age. The plan allows for early retirement from age 55 with at least 10 years of service, with benefits reduced to compensate for the longer payout period.

How does the early retirement benefit impact employees at Becton Dickinson and Company, particularly in terms of eligibility and the calculation of reduced benefits? By exploring the conditions under which early retirement is permitted, along with calculations related to the reduction in benefits for taking early retirement, employees can make more informed decisions based on their personal circumstances.

Ensuring Accuracy of Retirement Benefits: To ensure accuracy in the calculation of retirement benefits, especially after changes in personal circumstances such as marital status or address, employees are encouraged to promptly update their information with HR. Regular reviews of their retirement plan statements and maintaining communication with the plan administrator are advisable practices.

What steps should employees of Becton Dickinson and Company take to ensure their retirement benefits remain accurate and up-to-date, especially after a change in personal circumstances? This question addresses the importance of regularly updating personal information and understanding the repercussions of life changes on retirement benefits, ensuring employees are proactive in managing their future.

Alternatives for Non-Eligible Employees: Employees not eligible for the BD Retirement Plan, possibly due to the timing of their hire or their role, should explore other retirement savings options like IRAs or the BD 401(k) Plan. These alternatives provide avenues for retirement savings, even for those not covered under the traditional pension plans.

What alternatives exist for Becton Dickinson and Company employees who are not eligible for the BD Retirement Plan, and how can they plan for retirement adequately? This discussion can help inform employees who may fall outside the eligibility criteria about other retirement savings options, such as Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) or employer-sponsored 401(k) plans.

Determining Survivors' Pensions: The survivor's pension is determined by the pre-retirement surviving spouse benefit, which generally provides a monthly benefit of 50% of the employee's pension, payable to the spouse for life after the employee's death. This emphasizes the importance of employees designating beneficiaries and understanding the impact of these decisions on their family's financial security.

In the context of the Becton Dickinson and Company BD Retirement Plan, how are survivors' pensions determined, and what options are available for employees regarding beneficiaries? Employees often overlook the significance of beneficiary designations. This question would clarify the process and options available for ensuring that survivors receive entitled benefits and the financial implications of different choices made regarding pension benefits for spouses and dependent children.

Contacting the Plan Administrator: Employees seeking more information about their retirement benefits should contact the Plan Administrator. Preparedness for such inquiries includes having detailed personal and employment information, understanding their current benefits status, and having specific questions or concerns about their plan benefits.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Becton Dickinson announced a restructuring plan that includes significant layoffs and a shift in their global operations strategy. The company aims to streamline its operations and reduce costs amid a challenging economic environment.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Becton Dickinson at 1 Becton Dr Franklin Lakes, NJ 7417; or by calling them at +1 201-847-6800.