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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Bristol-Myers Squibb Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Bristol-Myers Squibb Bristol-Myers Squibb collaborates with multiple healthcare providers, including major national health insurers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) like CVS Caremark and Express Scripts, to ensure patient access to their medications. Their widespread distribution network encompasses hospitals, clinics, and specialty pharmacies, enabling healthcare professionals to prescribe and dispense their pharmaceutical products effectively. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As we look toward 2026, healthcare consumers should brace for significant cost increases stemming from a combination of factors. Record hikes in premiums for Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans are anticipated, with some states facing increases over 60% due to higher medical costs and the potential expiration of federal premium subsidies. Reports indicate that nearly 92% of marketplace enrollees could see their out-of-pocket premiums soar by over 75%, putting immense financial strain on families. Coupled with escalating hospital and drug prices, particularly specialty medications like GLP-1 weight loss drugs, the burden of rising healthcare expenses is likely to affect millions as they navigate their insurance options and healthcare needs. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Bristol-Myers Squibb employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Bristol-Myers Squibb employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Bristol-Myers Squibb employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Bristol-Myers Squibb employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Bristol-Myers Squibb preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Bristol-Myers Squibb employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Bristol-Myers Squibb with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Broward Health Cash Balance Pension Plan ensure the financial security of its employees upon retirement, and what are the specific benefit options available to employees who retire or terminate employment with Broward Health? Discuss the implications of choosing a lump sum versus a monthly benefit and how these choices affect overall retirement income.

Financial Security and Benefit Options: The Broward Health Cash Balance Pension Plan provides financial security by offering a defined benefit based on hypothetical account balances. Upon retirement or termination, employees can choose between a lump sum payment or a lifetime monthly benefit. The lump sum provides immediate access to funds, but opting for a monthly benefit ensures a steady income throughout retirement, which could lead to a more stable financial situation over time.

How does the retirement savings plan at Bristol-Myers Squibb Company compare to similar plans in the biotech and pharmaceutical industry, particularly regarding company matching contributions and employee deferral options? What factors should employees consider when deciding how much to contribute to their retirement accounts at Bristol-Myers Squibb Company?

Early Retirement Accommodations: Employees can retire early if they are at least 55 years old and have completed 5 years of vesting service. Benefits received upon early retirement are typically smaller compared to those received at the normal retirement age of 65. The normal form of benefit payment for early retirees is an actuarially adjusted life annuity based on the cash balance account at the time of early retirement(Broward Health_June 201…).

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company offers various retirement plans, including 401(k) plans and non-qualified deferred compensation plans. Can employees elaborate on the differences between these plans and how each one impacts their long-term retirement savings? Furthermore, how can an employee evaluate which plan best suits their individual retirement goals?

Vesting Schedule and Rights: The Broward Health Cash Balance Pension Plan uses a vesting schedule that grants full vesting rights after 5 years of service. Employees with fewer than 5 years of service are not eligible for benefits and forfeit their account balance. Vesting means employees gain the right to their accrued benefits, which become payable when employment ends(Broward Health_June 201…).

Based on the changes in IRS regulations for 2024, how might they affect Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's retirement and savings plans? Are there any new contribution limits or eligibility rules that employees should be aware of, and how can they adapt their savings strategies accordingly?

Role of the Pension Plan Committee: The Broward Health Pension Plan Committee administers the Cash Balance Pension Plan, ensuring compliance with laws and the plan’s financial health. The committee is responsible for investment decisions and approving plan changes, and it ensures that benefits are paid accurately and in a timely manner(Broward Health_June 201…).

What are the implications of taking an early withdrawal from retirement funds at Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, and how does it affect an employee's financial future? Employees should also consider what alternatives to early withdrawal exist within the company's policy framework.

Changes or Amendments to the Plan: The plan can be amended or terminated, but employees' vested rights are protected. Changes do not reduce accrued benefits from prior contributions, and the plan's termination follows a specific order to prioritize benefit distributions(Broward Health_June 201…).

Employees often have questions about post-retirement benefits, especially concerning medical coverage. What policies does Bristol-Myers Squibb Company have in place to ensure continued healthcare coverage for retirees, and what are the eligibility criteria for these benefits?

Recognition of Past Service upon Re-employment: If employees return to Broward Health after a break, their prior service may be recognized depending on vesting and benefit conditions at the time of rehire. Those who were vested before leaving can have their prior benefits restored, and contributions can resume after re-employment(Broward Health_June 201…).

How does Bristol-Myers Squibb Company handle the integration of pension benefits during mergers or acquisitions, and what can employees expect if they find themselves in such a situation? It would also be important for employees to understand their rights and options during these transitional phases.

Beneficiary Designations: Employees can designate beneficiaries to receive benefits if they die before or after retirement. Beneficiaries can receive lump sums or monthly payments, depending on the employee's retirement eligibility. Failure to designate a beneficiary may result in benefits going to the surviving spouse, children, or other family members as per the plan's order of priority(Broward Health_June 201…).

In light of recent company performance, what are Bristol-Myers Squibb Companyâ€™s future benefits projections, especially regarding pension plans? How can employees utilize this information to better plan for their retirement saving strategies?

Interest Credits on Accounts: The interest credits for cash balance accounts are determined based on U.S. Treasury rates, with a minimum annual interest rate. Interest is applied monthly, enhancing the account value and ensuring that employees' retirement savings grow over time(Broward Health_June 201…).

Given that Bristol-Myers Squibb Company has a robust benefits architecture, what specific programs or platforms are in place for employees to seek clarifications on their retirement benefits? How can Bristol-Myers Squibb company employees efficiently navigate these resources to address their individual inquiries?

Challenges in Filing Claims: The process for filing retirement claims involves notifying Broward Health and submitting the necessary paperwork 30 to 60 days before retirement or termination. In case of a denied claim, employees have the right to request a review and appeal, ensuring fair treatment and timely resolution(Broward Health_June 201…).

For employees looking to gain more information about retirement benefits and other related policies, how can they contact Bristol-Myers Squibb Company effectively? What communication methods are recommended to ensure that their questions are addressed promptly and comprehensively? These questions should provide employees with a deeper insight into their retirement planning while encouraging them to explore the benefits offered by Bristol-Myers Squibb Company further.

Contacting Broward Health for Information: Employees can contact the Employee Benefits department at Broward Health to learn more about the Cash Balance Pension Plan. Resources such as retirement counseling sessions and detailed plan descriptions are available to help employees understand their benefits and make informed decisions(Broward Health_June 201…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

In process of terminating U.S. Retirement Income Plan, transferring $3.8 billion of its pension obligations. Previous $1.4 billion transfer to Prudential for 8,000 retirees.

Bristol-Myers Squibb announced a restructuring plan that includes layoffs of approximately 1,200 employees.

Bristol-Myers Squibb offers RSUs to executives and certain employees. The RSUs vest over a three-year period, promoting long-term company performance and employee retention.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Bristol-Myers Squibb at 430 East 29th Street New York, NY 10016; or by calling them at +1 212-546-4000.