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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and CHS Employees' Retirement

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'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for CHS employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, CHS employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

  1. The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.

  2. How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on CHS employees.

  3. Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly CHS employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. 1

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. 2  Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at CHS preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially CHS employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at CHS with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.'  Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.'  Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.'  MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.'  VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.'  BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the specific criteria that determine eligibility for the various contributions within the CHS 401(k) plan, and how do these contributions affect an employee’s retirement savings over time at CHS? Understanding these criteria can help employees maximize their contributions to ensure they are making the most of the benefits offered by CHS.

Eligibility for 401(k) Contributions: CHS employees can contribute up to 75% of their eligible compensation to their 401(k), with an IRS limit of $18,000 (in 2017) plus an additional $6,000 for those aged 50 and older. CHS also provides a basic contribution of 2% and a performance-based contribution, which increases based on years of service​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Understanding these contributions can help maximize retirement savings.

How does the CHS Pension Plan work, particularly regarding the differences between the traditional account and the cash balance account? Employees might want to delve into how their choices and years of service will impact their retirement payout from either account.

CHS Pension Plan Structure: CHS offers a pension plan with both traditional and cash balance accounts. The traditional account is based on average pay and years of service, while the cash balance account accrues pay credits based on service. After December 31, 2017, pay credits ceased, but interest credits continue​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Employees should understand how these accounts affect their retirement benefits.

In what ways does the vesting schedule of CHS employer contributions influence an employee's retirement strategy? Employees at CHS need to understand how vesting affects their overall benefits and what steps they must take to ensure they are fully vested in time for retirement.

Vesting Schedule Impact: CHS has a three-year vesting schedule for its basic 401(k) contributions, while match and performance-based contributions are immediately vested​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Knowing the vesting rules is crucial for employees planning their retirement strategy, ensuring full benefits are realized.

Can you explain what "frozen" benefits mean for employees nearing retirement at CHS, and how this affects the calculations of future pension benefits? It's critical for employees to grasp the implications of a frozen pension account on their retirement plans.

Frozen Benefits: CHS employees with frozen benefits in the pension plan will not receive further pay credits after December 31, 2017, but interest credits will continue​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Understanding this freeze is essential for planning retirement payouts.

How can employees at CHS plan for their retirement withdrawals post-employment, particularly focusing on the pension distribution options that are available to them? Employees may find it beneficial to understand the long-term effects of these options on their financial health during retirement.

Retirement Withdrawals: CHS employees have the option to withdraw retirement savings via lump-sum payments or monthly annuities​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Choosing the right distribution option can significantly impact long-term financial health in retirement.

What actions should employees take if they want to change their contribution elections or investment strategies within CHS retirement plans? Knowledge of the processes for making changes can empower employees to take proactive steps in managing their retirement savings.

Changing Contribution Elections: Employees can change their contribution and investment elections online via the Empower Retirement portal or by calling Empower Retirement​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). This flexibility allows for proactive management of retirement savings.

How does the ability to access and review pension benefits online through the Empower Retirement website enhance the retirement planning process for employees at CHS? This question can lead to discussions about the importance of staying informed about one's financial future.

Access to Pension Benefits Online: Employees can access their pension benefits through Empower Retirement’s website​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Regularly reviewing these accounts is crucial for staying informed about retirement planning.

What are the implications for CHS employees who are not 100% vested in the Pension Plan before the freeze date, and what alternative options do they have for their retirement savings? Understanding this will help employees make informed choices regarding their benefits.

Not Fully Vested Before Freeze: If employees were not fully vested in the pension plan before the freeze date, they are still eligible to receive vested benefits​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Exploring alternative retirement savings options is important for those affected.

How do fluctuations in national interest rates impact the retirement plans of employees at CHS, particularly in the context of cash balance accounts? Employees should consider how external economic factors can affect their financial future.

Interest Rate Impact: The interest rate used to calculate cash balance account credits is the 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate plus 2%. These rates fluctuate annually​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Employees should be aware of how changes in interest rates affect their pension growth.

How should employees contact CHS for more information regarding their retirement benefits, and what resources are particularly useful for navigating the complexities of the pension and 401(k) plans? Contacting the right departments or utilizing specific resources can be crucial for maximizing retirement benefits at CHS. These questions are designed to provide depth and complexity, enabling employees to better understand their retirement benefits and the policies at CHS.

Contacting CHS for Retirement Information: Employees can contact Empower Retirement for pension and 401(k) inquiries via the Empower Retirement website or by phone​(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Utilizing these resources can help navigate complex retirement options.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for CHS at 5500 Cenex Dr Inver Grove Heights, MN 55077; or by calling them at (651) 355-6000.

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