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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and CITGO Employees' Retirement

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for CITGO employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, CITGO employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on CITGO employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly CITGO employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at CITGO preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially CITGO employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at CITGO with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the eligibility criteria for employees to participate in the Retirement Plan of CITGO Petroleum Corporation, and how do these criteria affect the benefits that employees accrue? Employees of CITGO Petroleum Corporation must meet specific criteria to qualify for the Retirement Plan, which is designed to provide a stable income during retirement. Understanding these eligibility requirements is crucial for employees, as it impacts their expected benefits and retirement strategy.

Eligibility for the CITGO Petroleum Corporation Retirement Plan: Employees must be at least 21 years old and have completed 12 months of employment with at least 1,000 hours of service to be eligible. Hourly employees covered by a collective bargaining agreement are typically included after meeting these requirements. Eligibility significantly affects benefits accrual, as being a participant allows employees to begin accruing service and vesting credits, which directly influence retirement benefit calculations(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How does the Cash Balance Benefit structure work within the Retirement Plan of CITGO Petroleum Corporation, particularly regarding the accumulation of Compensation Credits and Interest Credits? The Cash Balance Benefits offer a valuable retirement savings mechanism for CITGO employees, impacted by their Basic Earnings and years of service. As interest rates fluctuate, the manner in which these credits accumulate can significantly influence the overall retirement benefit.

Cash Balance Benefit Structure: The Cash Balance Benefit under the Retirement Plan includes Compensation Credits and Interest Credits. Compensation Credits are based on a percentage of Basic Earnings, determined by the employee's age and years of service. Interest Credits are applied annually and are calculated based on the higher of the 30-year Treasury securities rate or 1.5%. These credits are added to the employee's notional account balance each year, with the total balance used to determine the retirement benefit(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

In what ways can employees of CITGO Petroleum Corporation manage their Frozen Accrued Benefit upon retirement, and what considerations must they take into account? Employees nearing retirement should know how to optimize their Frozen Accrued Benefit for their individual retirement planning. Factors such as timing, potential changes in personal circumstances, and regulatory aspects play a critical role in this planning process.

Managing Frozen Accrued Benefits: Upon retirement, employees can manage their Frozen Accrued Benefit by selecting different payout options such as a single-life annuity or joint and survivor annuities. The timing of retirement also plays a key role, as early retirement may reduce the benefits based on age reduction factors. Employees need to consider their financial circumstances and retirement goals to optimize this benefit(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

What are the implications of transferring employment status (from hourly to salaried) on participation in the Retirement Plan of CITGO Petroleum Corporation? Understanding how a transition from hourly to salaried employment affects fund accumulation and credit service under the Retirement Plan is vital for employees planning their careers. Such transitions need to be handled carefully to ensure that benefits remain maximized.

Effect of Employment Status Transfer: A transfer from hourly to salaried employment will freeze Benefit Credit Service under the Plan, but Vesting Credit Service continues. Compensation and Transition Credits cease for hourly employees transitioning to salaried roles. However, Interest Credits continue until the Cash Balance Benefit is distributed. These changes can affect the overall retirement fund accumulation(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How do various retirement benefit options, including lump-sum payments and annuities, function within the CITGO Petroleum Corporation Retirement Plan? Employees face various choices regarding the disbursement of retirement benefits, each carrying unique financial implications. Evaluating these options requires a keen understanding of how they interact with overarching financial goals.

Retirement Benefit Options: CITGO Petroleum employees can choose between receiving their retirement benefits as a lump sum or through an annuity. Each option has different financial implications. Lump-sum payments offer immediate access to funds, but annuities provide a steady income stream over the retiree's lifetime. The choice between these options depends on the employee’s personal financial strategy(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

What is the role of the Plan Administrator in resolving benefits-related issues for employees at CITGO Petroleum Corporation, and how can employees effectively interact with this office? Employees must understand the administrative structure governing their retirement benefits. Effective communication with the Plan Administrator can significantly enhance an employee's ability to navigate complex issues regarding their retirement.

Role of Plan Administrator: The Plan Administrator is responsible for managing and resolving any issues related to retirement benefits. Employees can contact the Benefits HelpLine for inquiries or disputes regarding their benefits. Effective communication with the Plan Administrator ensures that employees can navigate and resolve issues related to their retirement plan(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How does the vesting schedule impact the retirement benefits of employees at CITGO Petroleum Corporation, and what strategies can employees employ to ensure full vesting? The vesting schedule is a critical component influencing when employees become entitled to their benefits. Employees should be aware of what actions can enhance their vesting status prior to retirement.

Impact of the Vesting Schedule: CITGO’s vesting schedule requires employees to have at least three years of service to become 100% vested. Vesting entitles employees to receive full benefits under the Plan. Employees nearing retirement should ensure they meet the vesting requirements to maximize their entitled benefits(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

What are the special provisions that exist for employees returning to work after receiving retirement benefits within the CITGO Petroleum Corporation Retirement Plan? Employees considering retirement must appreciate how returning to work can alter their benefits under the Retirement Plan. The potential effects on benefit payments, roles, and rights are crucial discussions for retiring employees.

Returning to Work Post-Retirement: Employees who return to work after receiving retirement benefits will have their benefit payments suspended. Upon re-retirement, their benefits are recalculated to reflect any additional service accrued during reemployment. Employees must understand these provisions to avoid potential disruptions to their retirement income(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How is the funding status of the Retirement Plan of CITGO Petroleum Corporation determined, and what implications does it have for current and future benefits? The viability of the Retirement Plan is heavily influenced by its funding status, impacting all participants. Employees should stay informed about what underpins this status and how it may affect their own long-term retirement planning.

Plan Funding Status: The funding status of the Retirement Plan is essential, as it affects the availability of lump-sum payments and may influence future benefits. Employees should monitor the Plan’s funding status to understand how it impacts their options and the security of their retirement benefits(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).

How can employees of CITGO Petroleum Corporation obtain further information about their retirement benefits, and what specific resources are available to assist them? Employees seeking additional guidance must know the channels available for inquiries. By reaching out to the Benefits HelpLine, employees can access crucial information that aids in managing their retirement planning effectively. For more information, employees can contact the Benefits HelpLine at CITGO Petroluem Corporation by emailing Benefits@CITGO.comã€4:18â€ sourceã€‘.

Accessing Further Information: Employees can obtain further details on their retirement benefits by contacting the Benefits HelpLine or the Plan Administrator. These resources provide necessary guidance on managing retirement benefits and addressing any issues or questions that arise(CITGO_Petroleum_Corpora…).