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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Conagra Brands Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Conagra Brands: For Conagra Brands, the healthcare provider information is typically linked to their employment benefits and can vary based on the location and specific plans offered to employees. Generally, large companies like Conagra may partner with major insurers such as UnitedHealthcare, Anthem (Elevance Health), or Aetna to provide health insurance benefits to their employees. It is advisable for Enrolled members to refer to their HR department or employee benefit documentation for specific provider details. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As we look ahead to 2026, significant increases in healthcare costs are anticipated, largely influenced by the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Reports indicate that premium rates for ACA marketplace plans could rise by over 60% in certain states due to higher medical expenses and market adjustments. Notably, a staggering 92% of policyholders may face a potential increase in their out-of-pocket premiums by more than 75%, reflecting the compounded effect of expiring subsidies and aggressive rate hikes from leading insurers. This perfect storm may lead to many consumers being priced out of essential healthcare coverage, forcing a reevaluation of their insurance options as financial pressures mount. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Conagra Brands employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Conagra Brands employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Conagra Brands employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Conagra Brands employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Conagra Brands preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Conagra Brands employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Conagra Brands with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does Conagra Brands, Inc. ensure that employees understand their retirement benefits, particularly the nuances of the Conagra Foods Inc. Pension Plan and the historical obligations from the Beatrice Retirement Income Plan (BRIP)? Are there specific communication strategies or resources provided to employees to navigate their eligibility and benefits?

Conagra Brands has not provided consistent documentation of the Beatrice Retirement Income Plan (BRIP), as evidenced by a lost BRIP Plan document, which has created confusion among former Beatrice employees. Conagra relies on internal committees like the Conagra Brands Employee Benefits Administrative Committee to oversee the administration of the Conagra Foods Inc. Pension Plan and the historical obligations from BRIP. However, there are allegations in the class action that Conagra has failed to communicate certain benefit entitlements, particularly the age at which unreduced benefits should commence(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

In light of regulatory compliance, what measures does Conagra Brands, Inc. take to maintain the integrity and security of pension plan documents, especially considering the historical loss of the BRIP Plan document? How do the missing documents impact employee knowledge of their benefits?

The loss of the BRIP Plan document represents a significant failure in document retention and regulatory compliance. Under ERISA, Conagra is required to maintain and distribute these documents upon request. The missing BRIP documents have caused discrepancies in the administration of retirement benefits, particularly regarding the age of eligibility for unreduced benefits. Conagra has been criticized for not informing employees that these documents were lost, leading to confusion and underpayment of benefits(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

What resources does Conagra Brands, Inc. offer to its employees who have questions about their pension benefits or discrepancies that may arise from the transition from the Beatrice Retirement Income Plan to the Conagra Foods Inc. Pension Plan? How can employees best utilize these resources?

Conagra directs employees to contact the Plan service center for inquiries related to their pension benefits. However, based on the complaints filed in court, there have been issues with transparency and the accessibility of important plan documents, including the BRIP. Employees have had to appeal their benefit decisions and deal with insufficient guidance on navigating the discrepancies between the old BRIP and the Conagra Plan. Resources like benefit calculators and service centers have sometimes provided inaccurate or incomplete information(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

How does Conagra Brands, Inc. handle the potential discrepancies regarding the pension benefits related to the age eligibility for receiving unreduced benefits in the context of both the Conagra Plan and the Beatrice plan? What steps have been taken to prevent similar issues in the future?

Conagra has been handling discrepancies poorly, particularly around the age at which participants in the BRIP are entitled to receive unreduced benefits. The company's adjustment of the eligibility age from 60 to 65 without properly consulting or notifying employees has led to underpayment of benefits. The ongoing class action lawsuit seeks to address these discrepancies and prevent future issues by clarifying benefit entitlements under the terms of both plans(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

Can you elaborate on the process that Conagra Brands, Inc. utilizes to communicate with employees about plan amendments and to clarify their rights under the Conagra Foods Inc. Pension Plan? What specific improvements have been made to this communication strategy in recent years?

The communication process regarding plan amendments at Conagra has been criticized as insufficient, particularly concerning the transition from the BRIP to the Conagra Plan. Employees have filed complaints about not receiving adequate notice of important changes, such as the shift in eligibility age for unreduced benefits. Conagra has failed to provide clear documentation, leading to confusion among employees. There is no evidence of significant improvements in recent years(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

How does Conagra Brands, Inc. ensure compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), especially regarding the fiduciary duties of the Conagra Brands Employee Benefits Administrative Committee? What protocols are in place to guarantee that employeesâ€™ rights are consistently protected?

Conagra's compliance with ERISA has been challenged in court, with allegations of fiduciary breaches related to the loss of critical plan documents like the BRIP. The Conagra Brands Employee Benefits Administrative Committee is responsible for maintaining the integrity of the pension plan, but the loss of documents and failure to notify employees of their rights raise questions about the adequacy of these protocols. The lawsuit highlights a need for improved oversight and adherence to ERISA's fiduciary requirements(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

What options are currently available for former Beatrice employees and other participants in the Conagra Foods Inc. Pension Plan to claim benefits they believe they are entitled to? How does Conagra Brands, Inc. facilitate this process?

Former Beatrice employees can contact the Pension Service Center to inquire about their benefits and initiate claims. However, the process has been complicated by missing documentation and conflicting information about eligibility. Some employees have been forced to file legal claims to recover benefits owed to them, as in the case of the ongoing class action lawsuit. The lack of clear and accessible resources has made it difficult for employees to navigate the process effectively(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

In what ways does Conagra Brands, Inc. provide support or guidance for employees approaching retirement, particularly in understanding the timelines and responsibilities associated with electing benefits from the Conagra Foods Inc. Pension Plan?

Conagra provides online calculators and service center assistance for employees approaching retirement, but these tools have proven unreliable for some participants. Employees have reported being unable to calculate their benefits accurately or being told they were ineligible for benefits before age 65, despite the terms of the BRIP allowing benefits to begin at age 60. The class action complaint highlights deficiencies in the guidance provided to employees regarding their benefits(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

How can employees at Conagra Brands, Inc. contact the Employee Benefits Administrative Committee for inquiries related to their benefits? What are the most efficient avenues for addressing concerns about the Conagra Foods Inc. Pension Plan or the transitions from the Beatrice plan?

Employees can contact the Plan service center for inquiries related to their benefits, but accessing the Employee Benefits Administrative Committee directly appears to be more challenging. The lawsuit indicates that employees seeking to address discrepancies with their benefits have not received timely or effective communication from the committee, often requiring legal action to resolve their concerns(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

How does Conagra Brands, Inc. evaluate its pension plan's performance and benefits offerings in relation to industry standards? What methods are used to ensure the company remains competitive while protecting employee benefits under the Conagra Foods Inc. Pension Plan?

There is little publicly available information regarding how Conagra evaluates its pension plan's performance against industry standards. The company's handling of historical pension obligations, particularly from the Beatrice acquisition, suggests that its methods for protecting employee benefits have been insufficient. Ongoing litigation regarding underpayment of benefits and loss of critical documents indicates that the company may need to improve its evaluation methods and compliance efforts to remain competitive(Conagra_Brands_Inc_02-1…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Conagra Brands announced a restructuring plan aiming to streamline operations and reduce costs. This includes layoffs impacting various departments and potential changes to employee benefits.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Conagra Brands at 222 W. Merchandise Mart Plaza Chicago, IL 60654; or by calling them at (312) 549-5000.