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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Copart Employees' Retirement

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Healthcare Provider Update: Offers four medical plan options, dental and vision coverage, HSAs/FSAs, 401(k) with match, ESPP, wellness programs, and tuition reimbursement. As ACA premiums rise, Coparts customizable plans and employer contributions help employees avoid steep out-of-pocket costs Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Copart employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Copart employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

  1. The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.

  2. How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Copart employees.

  3. Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Copart employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. 1

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. 2  Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Copart preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Copart employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Copart with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.'  Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.'  Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.'  MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.'  VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.'  BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What is the Copart 401(k) plan?

The Copart 401(k) plan is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save for their future by contributing a portion of their salary on a pre-tax or after-tax basis.

How can I enroll in Copart's 401(k) plan?

You can enroll in Copart's 401(k) plan by completing the enrollment process through the company’s benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

Does Copart match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Copart offers a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees maximize their retirement savings.

What is the maximum contribution limit for Copart's 401(k) plan?

The maximum contribution limit for Copart's 401(k) plan is determined by the IRS and may change annually; employees should check the latest IRS guidelines for the current limit.

When can I start contributing to Copart's 401(k) plan?

Employees at Copart can start contributing to the 401(k) plan after completing their eligibility period, which is typically outlined in the employee handbook.

What investment options are available in Copart's 401(k) plan?

Copart's 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, stocks, and bonds, allowing employees to choose based on their risk tolerance and retirement goals.

Can I take a loan from my Copart 401(k) account?

Yes, Copart allows employees to take loans from their 401(k) accounts under certain conditions, but it’s important to review the specific terms and repayment requirements.

What happens to my Copart 401(k) if I leave the company?

If you leave Copart, you have several options for your 401(k), including rolling it over to a new employer's plan, transferring it to an IRA, or cashing it out (though this may incur taxes and penalties).

How often can I change my contribution amount to Copart's 401(k) plan?

Employees can typically change their contribution amount to Copart's 401(k) plan at any time, subject to the plan's specific rules regarding frequency and timing.

Is there a vesting schedule for Copart's 401(k) matching contributions?

Yes, Copart has a vesting schedule for matching contributions, meaning that employees must work for a certain period before they fully own the employer contributions.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.
Copart offers a cash balance pension plan, which is a type of defined benefit plan. In this plan, participants' benefits are defined in terms of a stated account balance that grows annually with company contributions and interest credits. The cash balance plan credits each participant's account with a percentage of their annual compensation and an interest credit based on either a fixed rate or a variable rate linked to an index such as the one-year treasury bill rate. Eligibility for this plan typically includes full-time employees who meet certain tenure requirements, ensuring they receive a predictable retirement benefit based on their cumulative account balance at retirement. In recent years, Copart has adapted its cash balance plan to comply with updated tax laws and economic conditions. The company employs interest rate strategies that consider both stability and potential returns, such as using a fixed interest rate for simplicity and better funding predictability. Specifically, Copart has leveraged options like the 5% fixed rate, which helps in achieving consistent funding levels without yearly recalculations, making it advantageous for both the company and employees. This approach aligns with recent tax laws, ensuring that contributions and benefits are optimized within legal limits, benefiting both the company and its workforce.
Restructuring Layoffs: As of November 2023, Copart has announced significant financial growth with substantial increases in revenue and net income, which has mitigated the need for extensive layoffs. However, like many companies in the current economic climate, Copart has taken steps to optimize its workforce, primarily through natural attrition and selective hiring freezes rather than widespread layoffs. This strategic approach aims to maintain financial stability while preparing for potential market volatility in 2024​
Stock Options: Copart offers employee stock options which provide employees the right to purchase company stock at a predetermined price, known as the exercise price. These options are generally available to senior executives and key employees, designed to incentivize performance and align employee interests with those of shareholders. Restricted Stock Units (RSUs): Copart grants RSUs which represent a promise to deliver shares of stock at a future date, subject to vesting conditions. These units are typically awarded to executives and high-performing employees, providing them with a stake in the company's success.
Health Insurance Plans: Copart offers its employees a choice of four medical plans to accommodate different healthcare needs. These plans include coverage for dental, vision, and mental health services. Employees can also take advantage of disability insurance and flexible spending accounts (FSAs)​ (Copart)​ (Built In). Specific Healthcare Terms and Acronyms: FSA (Flexible Spending Account): Allows employees to set aside pre-tax dollars for eligible healthcare expenses. HMO (Health Maintenance Organization): A plan that requires members to use a network of doctors and hospitals. PPO (Preferred Provider Organization): A plan offering more flexibility in choosing healthcare providers and does not require a referral to see a specialist. Recent Employee Healthcare News: In 2024, Copart has continued to enhance its healthcare benefits to better support employees' mental health and overall wellness. The company provides 24/7 access to physicians through phone and video consultations at no additional cost to employees enrolled in their medical plans​ (Copart).
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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Copart at 14185 Dallas Pkwy. Dallas, TX 75254; or by calling them at 972-391-5400.

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