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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Corteva Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Corteva: Corteva Agriscience primarily offers health benefits through large health insurance carriers, including UnitedHealthcare and Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield. These providers generally offer a range of healthcare plans tailored to Corteva employees, which may include options for health savings accounts (HSAs) and preventative care services. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As we approach 2026, healthcare costs are projected to rise significantly, influenced by multiple factors affecting the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Insurers anticipate premium hikes averaging around 20%, with some states reporting increases exceeding 60%. This surge is largely driven by escalating medical expenses and the potential expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies, translating to an expected 75% increase in out-of-pocket costs for many enrollees. For Corteva employees, this scenario underscores the importance of strategic healthcare planning as rising costs could substantially impact access to affordable coverage. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Corteva employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Corteva employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Corteva employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Corteva employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Corteva preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Corteva employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Corteva with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does Corteva Agriscience determine the eligibility criteria for employees to participate in the Pension and Retirement Plan, and what implications does this have for employees who were hired before or after January 1, 2007? Specifically, in what ways could this eligibility impact employees looking to retire within the next few years as they assess their planned benefits?

Eligibility Criteria: Employees at Corteva Agriscience are eligible to participate in the Pension and Retirement Plan based on their hire date. Those hired before January 1, 2007, are generally eligible for the plan, while those hired afterward are excluded. This eligibility distinction significantly affects employees planning to retire in the next few years, as those hired before 2007 may be able to rely on pension benefits in addition to other savings(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

What are the different methods available for calculating retirement benefits under Corteva Agriscience's Pension and Retirement Plan? In particular, how do these calculations accommodate variations in years of service and average monthly compensation, and what considerations must employees account for when estimating their final retirement benefits?

Methods for Calculating Retirement Benefits: Corteva Agriscience offers different methods to calculate retirement benefits, including Formula A, B, and C. These formulas consider factors such as years of service and average monthly compensation. The formulas accommodate variations in service years, and employees must evaluate which formula provides the highest benefits based on their individual circumstances, including any service accrued before the Benefit Freeze Date(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

How does Corteva Agriscience address early retirement options for employees, and what factors contribute to the potential reduction of pension benefits for those opting for early retirement? Analyze the balance between the desirability of early retirement and the financial implications it entails for employees at Corteva Agriscience.

Early Retirement Options: Employees may opt for early retirement, typically available from age 50 with 15 years of eligibility service. However, retiring early could reduce pension benefits based on a percentage reduction for each year before normal retirement age. Employees must carefully balance the attractiveness of early retirement with potential reductions in their pension benefits(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

In what ways does Corteva Agriscience ensure that employees understand their rights and options regarding survivor benefits? What steps should employees take to designate beneficiaries effectively, and how might the choice of survivor benefit options affect long-term financial security for families after an employee's death?

Survivor Benefits: Corteva Agriscience provides survivor benefits, including options like joint and survivor annuities. Employees can designate a spouse or other beneficiaries to receive benefits after their death, ensuring long-term financial security for their families. Employees should regularly update beneficiary information and carefully consider how their choice of survivor benefits impacts their family’s financial security(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

How does Corteva Agriscience's pension plan accommodate transfers between affiliated companies? Specifically, what rules govern the continuity of benefits, and how might a transfer impact the benefits accrued under the Pension and Retirement Plan, particularly for those moving between different titles of the plan?

Transfers Between Affiliated Companies: The pension plan allows for the continuity of benefits when transferring between Corteva’s affiliated companies. Transfers after specific dates between titles (e.g., DuPont, Pioneer) continue to earn benefits under the initial plan, which helps employees preserve their accrued benefits when moving between titles within the company(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

What strategies can employees at Corteva Agriscience employ to maximize their retirement savings given the current limits set by the IRS for 2024? Discuss the potential implications of these limits on employee contributions and how the pension plan can work in conjunction with the employees' broader financial planning.

Maximizing Retirement Savings: Employees can maximize their retirement savings by contributing the maximum allowed under IRS limits for 2024. Since the pension plan is a defined benefit plan, it works alongside personal savings and the Retirement Savings Plan to provide comprehensive retirement support. Strategic contributions to 401(k) and other savings vehicles can complement the pension benefits(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

How does Corteva Agriscience manage the funding of its Pension and Retirement Plan to ensure that it meets current obligations? Additionally, what role do anticipated changes in employee demographics play in shaping Corteva's approach to future pension fund viability?

Pension Funding and Viability: Corteva Agriscience manages its Pension and Retirement Plan by monitoring funding levels to meet obligations. Anticipated changes in employee demographics, such as increasing retirements, shape the company’s strategy to maintain long-term pension viability and ensure that benefits are funded adequately(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

What are the potential benefits and limitations of participating in Corteva Agriscience's Pension and Retirement Plan for employees nearing retirement, and how do those factors influence their decision-making process regarding when to retire?

Benefits for Employees Nearing Retirement: Employees nearing retirement may benefit from Corteva Agriscience’s plan if they qualify under the eligibility criteria. However, the plan's limitations, including the Benefit Freeze Date and early retirement reductions, may influence their decision on when to retire. Employees must weigh these factors when assessing their overall retirement strategy(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

How can employees contact Corteva Agriscience to gain further insight or clarification regarding their benefits under the Pension and Retirement Plan? What resources does Corteva provide to facilitate communication and ensure that employees are well-informed about their retirement options?

Contacting Corteva for Clarification: Employees can contact Corteva’s pension recordkeeper for further clarification on their benefits by reaching out to the contacts listed in the plan’s summary. Corteva provides resources like the retirement kit to help employees understand their options(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

What legal and administrative steps must employees at Corteva Agriscience take when they experience changes in employment status or when filing claims related to their pension benefits? How does the administrative structure of the Pension and Retirement Plan influence these processes, and what resources are available to assist employees in navigating them?

Legal and Administrative Steps: Employees must notify the Pension and Retirement Plan administrator about changes in employment status and follow formal procedures when filing claims. Administrative processes are governed by plan-specific rules, and resources like Corteva Connection are available to assist employees through these processes(Corteva_Agriscience_Pen…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Corteva Agriscience offers a defined benefit pension plan and a 401(k) plan for its employees. The pension plan, inherited from DuPont, is based on a final average pay formula, considering factors like years of service and age. Employees need to meet specific criteria such as age 50 and 15 years of service to qualify for early retirement benefits. The 401(k) plan provides a match of up to 9% of salary, with a 3-year vesting period. For detailed information, specific documents like the Annual Funding Notice from 2024 contain the relevant details

Restructuring and Layoffs: Corteva has undertaken several restructuring efforts in 2023 and 2024, including significant reductions in workforce. The company has announced net pre-tax restructuring charges ranging from $265 million to $285 million during 2023. This is crucial to monitor due to the ongoing economic and political environment, where such decisions can significantly impact local and global employment markets and investor sentiment. It is also essential to address these developments to understand their implications for the broader agriculture sector.

Corteva, Inc. (NYSE: CTVA) offers stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) as part of their compensation packages for employees, which are designed to align their interests with the company's performance and long-term growth. In recent years, Corteva has emphasized the importance of these equity-based incentives as part of their strategy to attract and retain talent within the competitive agribusiness sector. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, Corteva continued to provide both stock options and RSUs to eligible employees, including senior executives and other key contributors. The stock options allow employees to purchase shares of Corteva at a predetermined price, while RSUs are awarded as part of long-term incentive plans, vesting over a set period and converting into shares upon vesting. These equity awards are primarily targeted at higher-level employees who play a crucial role in driving the company’s success.

Corteva provides a comprehensive benefits package that includes medical, dental, and vision insurance, along with Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs). Employees have access to a variety of healthcare plans tailored to their location, including options like Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) and Preferred Provider Organizations (PPOs). Specific terms used in their healthcare offerings include "Accolade Health Assistant," a service that helps employees navigate their healthcare options, and "Well-Being Programs," which encompass a range of mental and physical health initiatives. In 2023, Corteva introduced enhancements to their benefits package, such as expanded mental health resources and access to backup care services through partnerships with external providers. Additionally, Corteva's benefits guide for 2024 emphasizes the continued availability of comprehensive healthcare options and highlights their focus on supporting employees' work-life balance with programs like paid family medical leave and adoption reimbursement.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Corteva at 974 Centre Rd. Wilmington, DE 19805; or by calling them at 800-247-6803.

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