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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Costco Wholesale Employees' Retirement

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'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Costco Wholesale employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Costco Wholesale employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Costco Wholesale employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Costco Wholesale employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Costco Wholesale preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Costco Wholesale employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Costco Wholesale with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does Costco implement its 401(k) retirement plan for employees, and what specific contributions does Costco make to this plan? In the context of retirement planning, understanding the structure and benefits of the 401(k) plan is crucial for employees as they approach retirement. Costcoâ€™s approach in this regard offers an insight into how the company supports its employees' retirement financial goals. This question invites an exploration of plan details such as contribution options, matching contributions, and the vesting schedule.

Costco implements its 401(k) retirement plan by providing eligible employees with options to save for retirement through pre-tax contributions, which are matched by the company to a certain extent. Employees can contribute a percentage of their salary, and Costco offers matching contributions to support long-term savings. The vesting schedule typically ensures employees gain full rights to these contributions over a period, promoting loyalty and retention.

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For healthcare benefits nearing retirement, Costco provides employees with a range of options that can integrate with Medicare or other post-retirement health plans. These options help employees manage healthcare expenses as part of their broader retirement planning strategy, ensuring that healthcare costs are mitigated during retirement years.

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Deferred compensation plans at Costco allow employees to defer a portion of their income, reducing their taxable income in the present and postponing tax obligations until retirement when they may be in a lower tax bracket. These plans are typically used as a part of a broader financial retirement strategy, with eligibility criteria and options varying by employee role and tenure.

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Costco ensures competitiveness in retirement benefits by benchmarking against industry standards, ensuring its offerings are attractive to both new and existing employees. By maintaining competitive benefits, including 401(k) matching and deferred compensation, Costco uses these packages to support employee retention and satisfaction.

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Costco offers several resources to aid the retirement transition, including financial planning tools, counseling services, and seminars aimed at helping employees maximize their benefits. Employees are encouraged to engage with these resources early to better prepare for retirement and take full advantage of available benefits.

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Balancing short-term incentives and long-term benefits, Costco’s strategy focuses on offering a combination of immediate financial rewards, such as bonuses, alongside robust retirement savings plans like the 401(k) and deferred compensation options. This approach ensures that employees are motivated in the present while still planning for their future financial well-being.

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Employee contributions to Costco’s 401(k) plan are managed through a system that allows employees to invest their contributions in a variety of investment options. The company matches a portion of these contributions, and employees can monitor and adjust their contributions as part of their overall retirement savings strategy.

How can employees at Costco prepare for changes in tax regulations regarding retirement benefits, particularly in light of updates from the IRS? With ongoing changes to tax codes, especially those affecting retirement income, employees need guidance on effective preparation strategies. This question opens the floor for discussing IRS updates, implications for Costco employees, and proactive planning steps.

Costco prepares employees for changes in tax regulations by providing updates through internal communications and offering access to financial planning resources. These resources guide employees in understanding IRS updates and help them adjust their retirement plans to accommodate tax law changes.

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Communication regarding retirement benefits at Costco is handled through multiple channels, including online portals, direct mail, and HR consultations. Employees can seek clarification and support through these methods, ensuring they fully understand their retirement options and any changes that occur.

How can employees contact Costco for further information regarding their retirement benefits and any changes that may occur? Awareness of how to obtain additional information is vital for employees as they navigate retirement planning. This question centers on providing Costco employees with clear guidance on whom to contact and the process involved, ensuring that they are well-informed about their options.

Employees can contact Costco for retirement benefits information through HR support lines, online employee portals, or in-person consultations with benefits specialists. This allows employees to stay informed about their retirement plans and any potential updates that may impact their long-term financial planning.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

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Costco offers stock options to eligible employees. The stock options vest over time, providing long-term incentives.