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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and CUNA Mutual Group Employees' Retirement

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for CUNA Mutual Group employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, CUNA Mutual Group employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on CUNA Mutual Group employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly CUNA Mutual Group employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at CUNA Mutual Group preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially CUNA Mutual Group employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at CUNA Mutual Group with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the key differences between defined benefit plans and defined contribution plans offered by CUNA Mutual Group, and how might these differences affect my retirement benefits? As an employee of CUNA Mutual Group, understanding the nuances of defined benefit plans versus defined contribution plans is critical for effective retirement planning. Defined benefit plans typically promise a specific payout at retirement based on factors such as salary history and duration of employment. In contrast, defined contribution plans, like 401(k) plans, depend more on employee contributions and investment performance. Given the volatility in investment returns and changing employment patterns, employees might find themselves at a crossroad between predictable retirement income versus self-directed savings and investment risks. It's vital to explore how these plans could impact long-term financial security at retirement.

A defined benefit plan at CUNA Mutual Group offers predictable retirement payouts, typically based on salary history and years of service, ensuring employees a guaranteed income in retirement. In contrast, defined contribution plans, such as a 401(k), rely heavily on individual contributions and investment performance. Employees may face risks with defined contribution plans due to market volatility but benefit from greater control over their retirement savings. Depending on your financial situation and retirement goals, these differences can impact how secure your future income will be, either through guaranteed payouts or potential growth in investments.

How are pension costs determined in a defined benefit plan at CUNA Mutual Group, and what factors can influence these costs over time? The cost structure of a defined benefit plan at CUNA Mutual Group is predicated on various components, including service costs, interest costs, expected returns on assets, and amortization of gains and losses. Understanding these factors helps in managing potential burden changes on the organization's budget and employees' retirement expectations. For instance, factors such as fluctuating interest rates can significantly alter the present value of future liabilities, affecting the costs that CUNA Mutual Group bears. Employees should be versed in these aspects to contextualize their retirement benefits.

Pension costs at CUNA Mutual Group are influenced by factors such as service cost (new benefit accruals), interest cost (growth on past benefits), expected return on plan assets, and the amortization of gains or losses. Changes in these factors, like fluctuations in interest rates or salary adjustments, can affect the overall cost of the plan. Employees should be aware of how these variables impact their future pension benefits and how changes to the company's funding strategy could alter expectations.

What strategies can CUNA Mutual Group adopt to manage the costs and benefits of its defined benefit plan without drastically impacting employees' retirement security? CUNA Mutual Group faces the challenge of balancing cost management for its defined benefit plan while also ensuring that employees have adequate retirement benefits. Options like freezing benefit accruals, amending contribution formulas, or shifting to defined contribution plans can be explored. However, such strategies must be handled delicately to avoid significant disruptions to employees' retirement planning. Understanding employee concerns and the potential ramifications of these strategies is crucial to formulating a balanced approach.

CUNA Mutual Group can adopt strategies such as freezing benefit accruals, transitioning to cash balance designs, or reducing benefit formulas to manage costs. These strategies may lower expenses but must be carefully balanced to avoid significantly affecting employees' long-term retirement benefits. Clear communication about potential changes and their impact on retirement income is crucial for employees to adjust their retirement planning.

In what ways could regulatory changes influence the CUNA Mutual Group's pension plan design and its offerings to employees after retirement? Regulatory bodies frequently revise guidelines that govern employee benefit plans, potentially impacting how CUNA Mutual Group structures its pension offerings. For instance, changes to tax policies or pension funding requirements could affect administrative decisions regarding contribution levels or payout structures for defined benefit plans. It is imperative for employees to stay apprised of these regulations so they can understand any changes that might occur in their future benefits and what steps CUNA Mutual Group might take to adapt to new compliance needs.

Regulatory changes, such as adjustments in pension funding requirements or tax policies, can have a substantial impact on CUNA Mutual Group’s pension plan design. Changes in laws may require adjustments to benefit levels, contribution structures, or funding strategies. Employees should monitor such regulatory shifts to understand how they could influence future pension payouts and retirement strategies.

Could you explain the process employees at CUNA Mutual Group would need to undertake to access their retirement benefits upon leaving the company? For employees transitioning from CUNA Mutual Group to other ventures, itâ€™s essential to understand the process involved in accessing retirement benefits. This process may involve determining eligibility for pension payouts, selecting between lump-sum distributions or annuitized payments, and understanding how past contribution levels affect final benefits. Employees are encouraged to seek guidance from the HR department or pension plan administrators to navigate this process thoroughly.

When leaving CUNA Mutual Group, employees need to assess their eligibility for pension benefits, choose between lump-sum payouts or annuities, and understand how their years of service and contributions affect the final payout. It's advisable to consult with HR or a plan administrator to navigate the options and ensure that the benefits are accessed appropriately.

What tools and resources does CUNA Mutual Group provide to assist employees in planning for retirement effectively? CUNA Mutual Group offers various resources designed to support employees in their retirement planning journey. These might include access to financial planning tools, informational webinars about defined benefit and contribution options, or one-on-one consultations with benefits specialists. Employees should actively participate in these offerings as a means of optimizing their retirement readiness and ensuring they are leveraging all available benefits to the fullest extent.

CUNA Mutual Group offers several resources for retirement planning, such as access to financial planning tools, retirement webinars, and consultations with benefits specialists. These resources are designed to help employees make informed decisions about their defined benefit and defined contribution options, ensuring they optimize their retirement strategies.

How does the CUNA Mutual Group approach the issue of pension funding, and what implications does this have for current and future employees? The funding strategy for the pension plan at CUNA Mutual Group has significant implications for the benefits that employees can expect. A well-funded pension plan can provide assurance for employees about the stability and security of their retirement income. Conversely, fluctuations in the funding status could lead the organization to consider changes in benefit formulas or contribution strategies. Employees should be aware of how funding levels could affect their future benefits and the overall health of the pension plan.

CUNA Mutual Group’s pension funding strategy is critical to maintaining the stability of retirement benefits. A well-funded plan assures employees of predictable payouts, while underfunded plans may lead to changes in benefit formulas or contributions. Employees should stay informed about the funding status, as it could affect the future security of their pension income.

What should employees at CUNA Mutual Group know about the potential risks and benefits associated with their defined benefit plan? Employees should have a clear understanding of the inherent risks and benefits linked to CUNA Mutual Group's defined benefit plan. While these plans offer predictable retirement income, they are subject to various risks such as underfunding issues, market volatility, and regulatory changes. This understanding equips employees with knowledge about their eventual retirement income and helps them plan strategically alongside their professional developments or transitions within their careers.

Employees need to understand that defined benefit plans at CUNA Mutual Group provide predictable retirement income but come with risks such as underfunding, economic fluctuations, and regulatory changes. By staying informed about these risks, employees can better plan for their financial security in retirement, potentially supplementing their pension with other savings strategies.

What happens to my retirement benefits if CUNA Mutual Group decides to freeze its defined benefit plan? The implications of freezing a defined benefit plan at CUNA Mutual Group would be substantial for employees. Understanding the details surrounding such a freeze, including whether it would impact future accruals or merely limit new benefits for incoming participants, is crucial. Employees should consider consulting HR for comprehensive information regarding their specific situations and how a freeze could influence their expected retirement payouts.

If CUNA Mutual Group freezes its defined benefit plan, employees may no longer accrue new benefits, though they retain previously earned benefits. A freeze could impact future retirement income, particularly for employees nearing retirement, as they could miss out on years of service accruals or salary increases factored into their final benefit calculation.

How can employees contact CUNA Mutual Group to inquire further about their retirement benefits and related services? To learn more about retirement benefits, employees should reach out directly to CUNA Mutual Groupâ€™s HR department or designated pension plan administrators. The organization provides channels such as in-person meetings, phone consultations, and online resources which are specifically structured to assist employees with inquiries related to their retirement benefits and participant obligations. Employees can also explore dedicated web portals for additional information and updates on their pension plans.

Employees can contact CUNA Mutual Group directly through their retirement solutions division at 1-800-356-2644 or visit the website at CUNA Mutual Retirement Solutions for more information about retirement planning services and personalized assistance with their retirement benefits.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for CUNA Mutual Group at 5910 Mineral Point Rd Madison, WI 53705; or by calling them at (608) 238-5851.