New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Dollar Tree Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Dollar Tree Dollar Tree, a prominent discount retail chain, offers health insurance benefits to its employees through a partnership with a healthcare provider. This provider typically includes a variety of plan options, which often encompass major medical insurance, dental, and vision coverage, specifically designed to cater to the diverse needs of its workforce. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As Dollar Tree prepares for 2026, it faces the risk of significant healthcare cost increases primarily driven by unfavorable external factors. A recent analysis indicates that without the continuation of enhanced federal premium subsidies, many employees may confront premium hikes of over 75%, significantly impacting out-of-pocket expenses. Coupled with rising medical inflation, expected to remain between 7.5% and 8.5%, employees might struggle with increased healthcare costs while also experiencing pressure from higher wage demands and adjustments in pricing models across the retail sector. These challenges may compel Dollar Tree to reevaluate its healthcare offerings and strategies to support its workforce. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Dollar Tree employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Dollar Tree employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Dollar Tree employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Dollar Tree employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Dollar Tree preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Dollar Tree employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Dollar Tree with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by Dollar Tree?

The 401(k) plan offered by Dollar Tree is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their paycheck before taxes are taken out.

How can Dollar Tree employees enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Dollar Tree employees can enroll in the 401(k) plan by completing the enrollment process through the company’s benefits portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

Does Dollar Tree match contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Dollar Tree offers a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees grow their retirement savings.

What is the maximum contribution limit for Dollar Tree's 401(k) plan?

The maximum contribution limit for Dollar Tree's 401(k) plan is in accordance with IRS guidelines, which may change annually.

When can Dollar Tree employees start contributing to the 401(k) plan?

Dollar Tree employees can start contributing to the 401(k) plan after they have completed their eligibility period, which is typically outlined in the employee handbook.

Are there any fees associated with Dollar Tree's 401(k) plan?

Yes, there may be administrative fees associated with Dollar Tree's 401(k) plan, which are disclosed in the plan documents provided to employees.

Can Dollar Tree employees take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, Dollar Tree employees may have the option to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to the terms and conditions of the plan.

What investment options are available in Dollar Tree's 401(k) plan?

Dollar Tree's 401(k) plan typically offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds and target-date funds, allowing employees to choose based on their risk tolerance.

How often can Dollar Tree employees change their 401(k) contributions?

Dollar Tree employees can change their 401(k) contribution amounts at designated times throughout the year, as specified in the plan guidelines.

What happens to a Dollar Tree employee's 401(k) if they leave the company?

If a Dollar Tree employee leaves the company, they have several options for their 401(k), including rolling it over to another retirement account or cashing it out, subject to tax implications.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Dollar Tree offers a well-structured retirement benefits package for its employees, including a comprehensive 401(k) plan and participation in a company-wide pension system. Dollar Tree's 401(k) plan provides a dollar-for-dollar match on the first 5% of employee contributions, ensuring that employees who participate actively in the plan benefit from significant employer support. In addition to the 401(k), employees can partake in the Employee Stock Purchase Plan, allowing them to buy company stock through automatic payroll deductions. This creates a flexible option for building long-term savings while also investing in the company. The Dollar Tree 401(k) plan operates under Empower Retirement and is accessible through their secure platform, offering employees a user-friendly interface to manage their contributions and retirement savings (source: [9†source]). Additionally, Dollar Tree promotes retirement readiness with planning resources aimed at educating employees on maximizing their 401(k) contributions and understanding their retirement benefits. In terms of a pension plan, Dollar Tree's system is less defined in publicly available documents but suggests a focus on supporting employees through the 401(k) structure rather than a traditional defined benefit pension. Specific eligibility for the 401(k) includes regular full-time and part-time employees, with automatic enrollment often triggered after a designated period of employment. This setup helps ensure that all eligible employees have the opportunity to secure their financial future through the Dollar Tree 401(k) plan (source: [8†source]).

Restructuring and Layoffs: Dollar Tree has undergone significant restructuring throughout 2023 and 2024. The company has announced plans to close underperforming stores and streamline operations to boost profitability. These changes are part of a broader strategy to adapt to shifts in consumer spending and improve overall efficiency. This restructuring is particularly noteworthy given the current economic climate, which has been marked by inflation and fluctuating consumer behavior. Addressing these changes is crucial as they reflect the broader trends in the retail sector, impacting not only employees but also the company's long-term strategy in an unpredictable economic environment.

Dollar Tree Stock Options and RSUs 2022 Company Name: Dollar Tree Stock Options & RSUs Available: Dollar Tree provided stock options and RSUs to eligible employees under its Long-Term Incentive Plan. Stock options granted to executives and senior management are designed to align their interests with those of shareholders. Source & Page Number: Annual Report 2022, page 49. Company Name: Dollar Tree Eligibility: Stock options and RSUs were granted based on performance metrics and tenure. Key executives and high-performing employees were prioritized. Source & Page Number: Proxy Statement 2022, page 18. 2023 Company Name: Dollar Tree Stock Options & RSUs Available: The company continued to offer stock options and RSUs under its equity incentive plan. The awards were aimed at retaining top talent and rewarding long-term performance. Source & Page Number: Annual Report 2023, page 53. Company Name: Dollar Tree Eligibility: Eligibility for stock options and RSUs was expanded to include a broader range of employees, including mid-level managers and critical roles. 2024 Company Name: Dollar Tree Stock Options & RSUs Available: In 2024, Dollar Tree's equity compensation plan included stock options and RSUs with a focus on long-term incentives. These awards were intended to attract and retain key personnel amid competitive market conditions.

Dollar Tree Official Website Healthcare Benefits Page: Dollar Tree provides information on health insurance, including medical, dental, and vision coverage, as well as wellness programs. Benefits for full-time employees often include access to PPO and HMO plans, with options for family coverage. Recent Updates: There may be changes or updates in their benefits structure, so reviewing their latest benefits documentation is crucial.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Dollar Tree at 500 Volvo Pkwy Chesapeake, VA 23320; or by calling them at (757) 321-5000.