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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Dominion Energy Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Dominion Energy: Dominion Energy primarily partners with Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield to provide health insurance coverage for its employees. This collaboration helps in offering healthcare services and benefits tailored to meet the needs of the workforce. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As the healthcare landscape evolves, Dominion Energy employees may face significant increases in healthcare costs by 2026. Predictions indicate that health insurance premiums for many ACA marketplace plans could soar by over 60%, largely due to the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies and skyrocketing medical costs. This combination threatens to impact household budgets, potentially raising out-of-pocket expenses for nearly all marketplace enrollees. Consequently, preparing for these anticipated costs in advance will be crucial for individuals and families who rely on these services. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Dominion Energy employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Dominion Energy employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Dominion Energy employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Dominion Energy employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Dominion Energy preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Dominion Energy employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Dominion Energy with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What specific factors should employees consider when evaluating their retirement benefits under the Dominion Energy Pension Plan, particularly those who were hired before July 1, 2021? Employees should understand how their age, final average earnings, and credited service impact their monthly retirement benefits. Additionally, what changes might be relevant for those who have transitioned to a different retirement plan under Dominion Energy since 2021?

Evaluating Retirement Benefits: Employees hired before July 1, 2021, should consider factors like age, final average earnings, and credited service when evaluating their Dominion Energy Pension Plan benefits. The formula for calculating benefits includes 1.8% of the final average earnings, multiplied by credited service, minus an estimated Social Security benefit. For those who have transitioned to a Cash Balance Pension Plan after 2021, the benefits are calculated differently, based on employer contributions to the employee's Cash Balance Account.

How does the Special Retirement Account feature within the Dominion Energy Pension Plan complement the traditional pension benefits for employees hired before 2008? Employees need clarity on how this account accumulates funds, the impact of contributions and interest credited according to IRS guidelines, and how it influences overall retirement income during their retirement years.

Special Retirement Account (SRA) Benefits: The Special Retirement Account (SRA) is an additional benefit for employees hired before 2008. This account is credited with 2% of an employee's pay each month and accumulates interest according to IRS guidelines. The SRA can be taken as a lump sum or an annuity, providing extra retirement income. Employees can choose to receive it alongside their traditional pension, enhancing their overall retirement benefit.

For employees considering early retirement options under the Dominion Energy Pension Plan, what are the potential financial implications? Specifically, how are benefits calculated for those who retire before age 65, and what penalties or reductions in monthly benefits must they be aware of regarding their overall retirement strategy?

Early Retirement Financial Implications: For employees considering early retirement, benefits under the Dominion Energy Pension Plan are reduced if taken before age 65. Specifically, the reduction is 0.25% per month for retirement between ages 58 and 60 and 0.50% per month for ages 55 to 58. This results in up to a 24% reduction in benefits if an employee retires at age 55, influencing their overall retirement strategy.

What are the steps Dominion Energy employees must undertake to ensure their beneficiaries are properly designated within the pension plan? This includes understanding the implications for both married and unmarried employees regarding survivor benefits and how to ensure that their wishes are reflected in the beneficiary designations as per the plan's requirements.

Beneficiary Designations: Dominion Energy employees should ensure their beneficiary designations reflect their wishes. For married employees, the spouse is automatically the beneficiary unless a different person is designated with spousal consent. Unmarried employees can choose any beneficiary, ensuring survivor benefits align with their personal circumstances.

In the event of a disability, how does the Dominion Energy Pension Plan provide support to its employees? Employees should understand the eligibility criteria for continued benefits, how credited service is affected, and the options available under both the Traditional Pension and Cash Balance formulas during periods of long-term disability.

Disability Benefits: Employees who qualify for long-term disability under the Dominion Energy Pension Plan continue to accrue credited service until age 65. Those under the Traditional Pension formula maintain eligibility for a pension based on their final average earnings and credited service, ensuring continued support during periods of disability.

How have the vesting requirements under the Dominion Energy Pension Plan evolved, and what does it mean for employees hired before and after July 1, 2021? Understanding these changes is essential for employees to assess their benefits and rights in relation to their service with the company, particularly if they leave before reaching the normal retirement age.

Vesting Requirements: Vesting for the Dominion Energy Pension Plan requires three years of service. For employees hired before July 1, 2021, vesting ensures non-forfeitable rights to pension benefits, regardless of whether they reach normal retirement age. Employees hired after July 1, 2021, are not eligible for the pension plan but may participate in alternative retirement benefits.

How can Dominion Energy employees effectively plan for retirement considering Social Security benefits? It is important for employees to integrate their expected Social Security benefits with their Dominion Energy pension projections, and to understand how each component contributes to their overall retirement income.

Social Security and Pension Planning: Employees should integrate their Social Security benefits with their Dominion Energy pension to ensure a comprehensive retirement income strategy. Using estimated Social Security benefits, employees can calculate how both sources will contribute to their financial stability in retirement.

What resources are available to Dominion Energy employees for estimating their pension benefits and planning their retirement? Employees should be informed about tools and websites like the Your Benefits Resource website, which provides insights into their pension information, including the ability to run benefit projections or request retirement estimates.

Retirement Planning Resources: Dominion Energy provides tools like the "Your Benefits Resource" website, which allows employees to view pension information, run benefit projections, and request retirement estimates. This helps employees plan effectively by estimating future benefits and understanding their retirement options.

Under what circumstances can Dominion Energy employees elect for a lump sum payment of their pension benefits, and what are the tax implications associated with such a decision? Employees need a thorough understanding of the consequences of taking lump sum distributions versus annuity payments, particularly regarding penalties and tax treatments in accordance with IRS regulations.

Lump Sum Payments and Tax Implications: Dominion Energy employees can elect to receive a lump sum payment of their pension benefits. However, lump sum distributions are subject to income taxes and may incur early withdrawal penalties if taken before age 59½. Rolling over the lump sum into an IRA or another retirement plan can defer taxes and avoid penalties.

How can employees at Dominion Energy get in touch with HR or the Benefits Center to clarify any questions regarding their pension benefits and retirement planning? It's crucial for employees to know the best methods to contact the Dominion Energy Benefit Center and the availability of service representatives to discuss their concerns or make necessary changes to their benefits.

Contacting HR and Benefits Center: Dominion Energy employees can reach the Benefits Center by calling 877-434-6996, Monday through Friday, from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET. The Benefits Center provides assistance with retirement planning, beneficiary updates, and other pension-related inquiries, ensuring employees have access to support when needed(Dominion Energy_July 20…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Dominion Energy offers robust retirement benefits for its employees, including a defined benefit pension plan and a 401(k) savings plan, with eligibility varying based on the employee's hire date. For those hired before July 1, 2021, the Dominion Energy Pension Plan provides a monthly benefit at retirement based on years of service and salary, using a pension formula of 2% of base pay multiplied by the number of years of service (Dominion Energy Careers). Employees hired after this date are not eligible for the pension plan, but they may still participate in the company's 401(k) plan (SEC.gov). The Dominion Energy 401(k) Salaried Savings Plan allows employees to contribute a percentage of their compensation, with a company matching contribution of 4% to 5%, depending on years of service. Additionally, the company provides a non-elective automatic contribution of 4% or 5% of the employee's eligible compensation. These contributions become fully vested after three years of service (SEC.gov). Dominion Energy’s plans also include a diverse set of investment options, allowing participants to direct their contributions and employer contributions across various funds. If no directions are made, contributions are invested in a Target Retirement Trust based on the participant's age (SEC.gov). Additionally, the Dominion Stock Fund makes up a significant portion of the company's investment offerings. The 401(k) plan includes flexible dividend options, giving participants the choice to receive cash dividends or reinvest them in Dominion Energy stock

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Dominion Energy announced a significant restructuring plan aimed at reducing operational costs and streamlining its business operations. The restructuring led to the elimination of several positions across various departments. This move was part of a broader strategy to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to the changing energy market. The decision to lay off employees was influenced by the company's need to align with economic pressures and optimize its workforce in light of ongoing shifts in the energy sector. Importance: Addressing this news is crucial due to the current economic climate, which is marked by fluctuating energy prices and increased regulatory scrutiny. Additionally, the company's restructuring efforts reflect broader trends in corporate strategy during times of economic uncertainty. Understanding these changes helps employees and investors navigate potential impacts on job security and company performance.

Stock Options: Dominion Energy provides employees with Non-Qualified Stock Options (NSOs) and, occasionally, Incentive Stock Options (ISOs). NSOs are commonly offered to a broad range of employees, while ISOs are typically reserved for executives and senior management.

Dominion Energy offers a comprehensive health benefits package for its employees, covering a range of medical, dental, and vision needs. Employees can choose from three medical plan options, all administered by Anthem, and they also have access to a Health Savings Account (HSA) or Healthcare Flexible Spending Account (FSA) depending on the plan. Dental and vision coverage is provided through MetLife and EyeMed, respectively, with options like orthodontia and LASIK discounts. Additionally, Dominion Energy has recently switched its Health Savings Account vendor to PayFlex for 2024. The company also provides extensive parental leave options, including up to 120 hours of paid leave for full-time employees, and resources like the Employee Assistance Program (EAP) and Dependent Care Flexible Spending Account to support families.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Dominion Energy at 120 Tredegar St Richmond, VA 23219; or by calling them at (804) 819-2000.