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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Duke Energy Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Duke Energy Duke Energy utilizes a range of health benefits and insurance plans provided through major healthcare organizations, with Aetna being one of the primary providers offering their employee health insurance coverage. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases for Duke Energy in 2026 As 2026 approaches, Duke Energy employees may face significant healthcare cost increases due to a combination of factors impacting the broader health insurance market. Record premium hikes for Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans, with some states eyeing increases exceeding 60%, could manifest in employer-sponsored plans as well. The potential expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies, alongside rising medical costs and aggressive rate hikes from insurers, may significantly elevate out-of-pocket expenses for beneficiaries. This perfect storm of factors indicates that employees might need to prepare for substantial healthcare financial burdens in the upcoming year, as many individuals could see their premiums rise by more than 75%. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Duke Energy employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Duke Energy employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Duke Energy employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Duke Energy employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Duke Energy preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Duke Energy employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Duke Energy with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan calculate benefits at normal retirement age, specifically for employees who reach the age of 65? In what circumstances might an employee consider retiring before reaching this age, and how would the benefits differ if they choose this option?

Benefit Calculation at Normal Retirement Age: Duke Employees' Retirement Plan calculates benefits for employees who retire at age 65 by applying a formula that includes 1.25% of their average final compensation for the first 20 years of credited service and 1.66% for any additional years. If an employee retires before 65, they can do so after age 45 with 15 years of service, but their benefits will be reduced based on how early they retire, resulting in lower payments due to a longer payout period.

What considerations should an employee keep in mind regarding their unused sick leave or carry-over bank hours when calculating benefits under the Duke Employeesâ€™ Retirement Plan? How does Duke utilize these factors to enhance an employee's credited service for the purpose of benefit calculation?

Impact of Unused Sick Leave and Carry-Over Bank Hours: Unused sick leave and carry-over bank hours are converted into additional credited service, which can enhance the calculation of retirement benefits. Employees who have accumulated these hours can see their credited service extended, leading to higher pension benefits at retirement.

In what situations would an employee's benefits under the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan be automatically paid in a lump sum? How does the Plan determine the value of benefits that fall below the threshold for monthly payouts, and what implications does this have for retirement planning?

Lump-Sum Payments for Small Benefits: If the value of an employee's benefit is $5,000 or less, Duke Employees' Retirement Plan automatically pays it as a lump sum. For benefits between $5,000 and $10,000, employees can choose between a lump-sum payment or a monthly pension. This can significantly impact retirement planning, especially for employees weighing whether to take a smaller upfront amount or spread it over time.

How does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan handle benefit adjustments for employees who continue to work beyond their normal retirement age? What factors influence how these adjustments are calculated, and what implications might this have for future financial planning for employees nearing retirement?

Benefit Adjustments for Postponed Retirement: Employees who continue working beyond their normal retirement date will see their benefits increased annually (by no less than 10%) to account for the shorter period during which they will receive payments. The plan recalculates benefits based on the employee’s continued service and compensation after age 65.

What options are available to employees of Duke University regarding payment forms when they retire, and what are the long-term implications of choosing each option? How do these choices affect both the retiree's monthly income and survivor benefits for a spouse or other beneficiary?

Payment Form Options and Implications: At retirement, employees can choose various payment options such as a single life annuity, joint and survivor annuities, or a lump-sum payment. These choices affect the amount received monthly and any survivor benefits for a spouse or beneficiary. Employees should carefully consider their long-term financial needs and the needs of their beneficiaries when selecting a payment option.

What specific protections does the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan provide for spouses in the event of an employee's death, and how does this influence the choice of payment options? What steps must an employee take to ensure that their spouse's rights are upheld under the Plan?

Spousal Protections: The Plan provides protections for spouses in the event of an employee's death. A surviving spouse can receive 50% of the employee's reduced monthly benefit through a joint and survivor annuity. Employees must take steps to ensure spousal rights are protected by selecting the appropriate payment option and ensuring the necessary documentation is completed.

How can employees of Duke University ensure that they are informed about their rights under ERISA while participating in the Employees' Retirement Plan? What resources and tools does Duke provide to help employees understand and assert these rights?

Employee Rights Under ERISA: Duke provides resources for employees to understand their rights under ERISA, including access to plan documents and assistance in filing claims. Employees are encouraged to use Duke's available tools to assert their rights and ensure they are fully informed about the benefits available to them under the Plan.

In what ways can employees at Duke University navigate the complexities of reemployment after retirement, and how does their choice of retiree status affect their benefits? What regulations govern how benefits are recalculated if they choose to return to work at Duke?

Reemployment After Retirement: Employees who return to work at Duke after retiring can continue to receive their pension if they work fewer than 1,000 hours per year. However, if they exceed 1,000 hours, their payments will be paused and recalculated based on additional service and earnings when they retire again. This provides flexibility for employees considering reemployment after retirement.

What impact do legislative changes, such as those introduced by the IRS, have on the Duke Employees' Retirement Planâ€™s structure and benefits? How should employees approach understanding these changes in the context of their personal retirement strategies?

Impact of Legislative Changes: Changes introduced by the IRS or other regulatory bodies can impact the structure of the Duke Employees' Retirement Plan and its benefits. Employees should stay informed about these changes and how they affect personal retirement strategies, particularly regarding tax laws and pension calculations.

How can employees at Duke University contact the Retirement Board for questions or clarifications regarding their retirement benefits? What is the best approach for reaching out to ensure that they receive timely and accurate information?

Contacting the Retirement Board: Employees can contact Duke's Retirement Board for any questions or clarifications regarding their retirement benefits. The Retirement Board is responsible for managing the Plan, and employees are encouraged to reach out directly for timely and accurate information to address any concerns about their retirement.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Duke Energy offers a comprehensive employee pension plan known as the Duke Energy Retirement Cash Balance Plan (RCBP), which has undergone restructuring over the years. This plan is available to employees based on years of service and age qualification, with specific details outlined in the company's plan documents. Duke Energy also provides a 401(k) plan named the Duke Energy Retirement Savings Plan (RSP), offering both traditional and Roth options. Employees typically become eligible for these plans after meeting certain service requirements, with detailed formulas for calculating benefits. The Summary Plan Description (SPD) and other relevant documents provide precise details, including the specific pages where this information can be found. It’s important to refer to these documents to understand eligibility criteria, plan formulas, and other terms specific to Duke Energy’s retirement benefits.

Layoffs and Reorganization: Duke Energy has implemented layoffs as part of a broader effort to cut costs and refocus on clean energy initiatives. In 2023, the company laid off a few hundred employees, mainly in Charlotte, as part of a $300 million cost-saving strategy. These layoffs were primarily in corporate and operational support roles. Duke Energy is also reorganizing to enhance efficiency as it continues to transition towards cleaner energy sources, including the expansion and modernization of its clean energy grid. This restructuring is crucial to maintaining competitiveness in the evolving energy market. Importance: Addressing these layoffs and reorganization is vital given the current economic and investment climate, as well as the political push for cleaner energy solutions. Understanding the impact of these changes helps stakeholders navigate the uncertainties in the energy sector.

I gathered detailed information about Duke Energy's employee stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024. Duke Energy offers both stock options and RSUs to its employees, primarily as part of its compensation and incentive programs. The company uses specific acronyms such as DUK for its stock symbol and references these programs in its financial reports and proxy statements. In 2022, Duke Energy expanded its RSU offerings, which were primarily targeted at senior management and key employees as a form of long-term incentive. The stock options and RSUs are granted based on performance criteria, and employees who meet these criteria, particularly those in leadership roles, are eligible. By 2023, Duke Energy continued to utilize RSUs as a significant part of its compensation strategy, with a focus on aligning employee incentives with shareholder interests. This program was further reinforced in 2024 as part of the company's efforts to retain top talent during a period of operational restructuring.

For Duke Energy, the health benefits offered to employees in the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 are comprehensive and focus on a range of healthcare needs. Duke Energy provides medical, dental, vision, life, and disability coverage as part of its total rewards package. Additionally, wellness programs, retirement benefits, and work-life balance programs are emphasized to ensure the well-being of employees. Some specific healthcare-related terms and acronyms used by Duke Energy include the UHC (UnitedHealthcare) Transparency in Coverage initiative, which is part of their efforts to comply with legal requirements and ensure employees have access to clear information about their healthcare costs. Duke Energy also offers Parental Leave Pay for both mothers and fathers, providing up to six weeks of paid leave for new parents. In terms of recent employee healthcare news, Duke Energy has been actively involved in initiatives that align with their sustainability goals, which indirectly impact employee health benefits. For example, their clean energy transition is likely to bring about changes in the healthcare policies related to environmental health and safety as the company focuses on reducing its carbon footprint and promoting sustainable practices across its operations.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Duke Energy at 550 S Tryon St Charlotte, NC 28202; or by calling them at (800) 777-9898.

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