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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and eBay Employees' Retirement

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Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for eBay eBay utilizes the services of multiple healthcare providers for its employees, typically engaging in partnerships with large, well-known insurers to provide comprehensive health plans. While specific details about eBay's current healthcare provider may vary, they have previously been associated with providers like UnitedHealthcare and Anthem. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As eBay prepares for 2026, it faces potential challenges due to steep healthcare cost increases. Premiums for Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans are projected to surge significantly, with some states seeing hikes over 60%. Factors contributing to this surge include higher medical costs, the likely discontinuation of enhanced federal subsidies, and aggressive pricing strategies from major insurers. As a result, employees may experience a dramatic rise in out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, with estimates suggesting increases could exceed 75% for many enrollees. This scenario underscores the importance for employers like eBay to strategize effectively in managing healthcare benefits amidst a turbulent market. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for eBay employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, eBay employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

  1. The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.

  2. How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on eBay employees.

  3. Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly eBay employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. 1

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. 2  Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at eBay preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially eBay employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at eBay with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.'  Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.'  Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.'  MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.'  VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.'  BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What type of retirement savings plan does eBay offer to its employees?

eBay offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to its employees.

Does eBay provide a company match for contributions made to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, eBay provides a company match for employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, subject to certain limits.

What is the maximum employee contribution limit for eBay's 401(k) plan?

The maximum employee contribution limit for eBay's 401(k) plan is in accordance with IRS guidelines, which may change annually.

Can employees at eBay choose between traditional and Roth 401(k) contributions?

Yes, employees at eBay can choose to make either traditional pre-tax contributions or Roth after-tax contributions to their 401(k) plans.

When can eBay employees enroll in the 401(k) plan?

eBay employees can enroll in the 401(k) plan during their initial onboarding period or during the annual open enrollment period.

How often can eBay employees change their 401(k) contribution amounts?

eBay employees can change their 401(k) contribution amounts at any time, subject to the plan's guidelines.

What investment options are available in eBay's 401(k) plan?

eBay's 401(k) plan offers a range of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles.

Does eBay allow for loans against the 401(k) balance?

Yes, eBay allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) balance, subject to the plan's terms and conditions.

What happens to an employee's 401(k) balance if they leave eBay?

If an employee leaves eBay, they can choose to roll over their 401(k) balance to another retirement account, cash out, or leave it in the eBay plan if eligible.

Are there any fees associated with eBay's 401(k) plan?

Yes, eBay's 401(k) plan may have administrative fees and investment-related fees, which are disclosed in the plan documents.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.
For eBay, the company offers a 401(k) plan and a defined contribution pension plan as part of its retirement benefits. The 401(k) plan allows employees to contribute a portion of their salary towards retirement savings, with eBay providing a matching contribution. As of 2023, eBay employees who meet certain age and service requirements can participate in these retirement plans. The specific 401(k) plan for eBay employees is designed to maximize retirement savings, with the company matching employee contributions up to a certain percentage of their salary. The eligibility for the 401(k) plan typically requires employees to be 21 years old and to have completed one year of service with the company. In addition, long-term part-time employees who work at least 500 hours in three consecutive years are also eligible to participate starting in 2024 due to changes brought by the SECURE Act.
Restructuring and Layoffs: In January 2024, eBay announced a significant restructuring plan that includes laying off 1,000 full-time employees, representing approximately 9% of its workforce. This move is part of a broader strategy aimed at reducing operating costs and improving efficiency in response to economic pressures such as rising inflation and interest rates, which have affected consumer demand and the company's financial performance. The layoffs are part of eBay's effort to position itself for long-term success by streamlining operations and consolidating teams. The company has also indicated plans to reduce contracts within its alternate workforce. Addressing these layoffs is crucial in understanding the impact of the current economic, investment, and tax environment on tech companies.
Stock Options and RSUs Availability eBay offers stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) to eligible employees, providing them with an opportunity to own shares of the company and benefit from its performance. These equity compensation tools are primarily available to full-time employees across various roles, including senior executives and other high-performing employees. The eBay Stock Option Plan allows employees to purchase shares at a set price (strike price), while RSUs are granted as shares that vest over time, incentivizing long-term retention​
eBay offers a comprehensive health benefits package designed to meet the diverse needs of its employees. For the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, eBay's health benefits have included a range of options such as PPOs (Preferred Provider Organizations), HMOs (Health Maintenance Organizations), and high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) paired with Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). This variety ensures that employees can choose a plan that best fits their personal healthcare needs and financial situations. Specific healthcare-related terms and acronyms commonly associated with eBay's health plans include PPO, HMO, HDHP, and HSA. These plans cover essential services such as preventive care, dental and vision insurance, disability insurance, mental health support, and life insurance. Additionally, eBay has focused on mental health benefits, recognizing the importance of supporting both the physical and mental well-being of its employees.
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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for eBay at 2025 Hamilton Ave San Jose, CA 95125; or by calling them at (408) 376-7400.

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