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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Equifax Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Equifax: Equifax collaborates with various healthcare providers and partners, primarily offering solutions that utilize their comprehensive data and analytics services to enhance healthcare delivery and patient experiences. They focus on improving patient outcomes by leveraging insights gathered from their expansive databases, facilitating better decision-making for healthcare organizations. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As we approach 2026, significant increases in healthcare costs are anticipated, primarily driven by the looming expiration of enhanced ACA premium subsidies. Without these critical financial supports, patients could face out-of-pocket premium increases exceeding 75%, effectively pricing many out of necessary coverage. Coupled with escalating medical service costs and a sharp rise in insurer demand for rate adjustments, particularly in states like New York where proposed hikes reach as high as 66.4%, the burden on consumers will intensify, prompting an urgent need for strategic healthcare planning. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Equifax employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Equifax employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Equifax employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Equifax employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Equifax preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Equifax employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Equifax with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What type of retirement savings plan does Equifax offer to its employees?

Equifax offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to help employees save for retirement.

How can employees at Equifax enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees at Equifax can enroll in the 401(k) plan through the company's benefits portal during the enrollment period or after they meet eligibility requirements.

Does Equifax provide any matching contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Equifax offers a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees boost their retirement savings.

What is the vesting schedule for matching contributions at Equifax?

The vesting schedule for matching contributions at Equifax typically follows a graded vesting formula, allowing employees to gradually gain ownership of the contributions over time.

Can employees at Equifax take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, Equifax allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to certain conditions and limits.

What investment options are available in Equifax's 401(k) plan?

Equifax's 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to suit different risk tolerances.

How often can employees at Equifax change their 401(k) contribution amounts?

Employees at Equifax can change their 401(k) contribution amounts at any time, subject to the plan's guidelines.

Is there an automatic enrollment feature in Equifax's 401(k) plan?

Yes, Equifax has an automatic enrollment feature that enrolls eligible employees in the 401(k) plan unless they choose to opt out.

What is the minimum contribution percentage for Equifax's 401(k) plan?

The minimum contribution percentage for Equifax's 401(k) plan may vary, but typically it starts at 1% of the employee's eligible pay.

Are there any fees associated with Equifax's 401(k) plan?

Yes, there may be fees associated with Equifax's 401(k) plan, such as administrative fees or investment fees, which are disclosed in the plan documents.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Equifax, as part of its employee benefits structure, offers both a pension plan and a 401(k) plan. In 2009, Equifax froze its defined benefit pension plan for many of its employees. This freeze impacted approximately 4,000 U.S. employees, though about 300 employees who met certain grandfathering criteria continued to participate in the pension plan. The defined benefit pension plan remains active for these grandfathered employees, while the remainder of the workforce transitioned to an enhanced 401(k) plan. Equifax's pension plan had over $606 million in assets as of 2007 (Workforce.com) (Equifax Inc.). For the employees transitioned to the enhanced 401(k) plan, Equifax introduced automatic contributions ranging from 1.5% to 4% of salary based on years of service. This contribution is made regardless of employee participation. Additionally, Equifax provides a 100% match on employee contributions up to 4% of pay. The company also offers investment options to maximize retirement benefits through its 401(k) plan

Restructuring and Layoffs: In early 2024, Equifax announced a strategic restructuring plan aimed at streamlining operations and improving efficiency. This move included a reduction in the workforce, affecting approximately 10% of its employees globally. The restructuring is part of a broader initiative to focus on core areas and reduce operational costs. Importance: It is crucial to monitor these developments due to the current economic climate, which is characterized by increased volatility and changing investment conditions. Companies are adjusting their strategies to stay competitive, and understanding these changes can provide insights into broader market trends and potential impacts on investment and tax strategies.

Equifax (EFX) offers stock options as part of its employee compensation packages. Employees at Equifax are granted stock options to align their interests with those of the company's shareholders. Stock options at Equifax generally vest over a period of time, encouraging long-term employment. Specific details on the vesting schedule and eligibility can be found in Equifax’s employee handbook or compensation plan documents. As of 2022-2024, Equifax has periodically updated its stock option plans to stay competitive and reward high-performing employees. Restricted Stock Units (RSUs): Equifax (EFX) provides Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) to employees, which are typically used to retain talent and incentivize performance. RSUs at Equifax vest based on time or performance metrics. RSUs at Equifax are usually granted to senior executives and high-performing employees. The vesting schedule for RSUs is detailed in Equifax's equity compensation plan. For the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, Equifax has adjusted its RSU grants to align with market trends and company performance goals.

Health Benefits Overview (2023): Equifax provides a range of health benefits including medical, dental, and vision coverage. They offer both HMO and PPO plans, with some plans featuring Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) or Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs). Acronyms: HMO (Health Maintenance Organization), PPO (Preferred Provider Organization), HSA (Health Savings Account), FSA (Flexible Spending Account). Recent Updates: As of 2023, Equifax has continued to enhance its health benefits offerings, focusing on mental health support and expanding telemedicine services. They also introduced new wellness programs aimed at improving overall employee health and well-being.