New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Fidelity National Information Services Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Fidelity National Information Services Fidelity National Information Services, often referred to as FIS, primarily utilizes Cigna Healthcare as its healthcare provider for employee benefits. Cigna offers a variety of health insurance plans to FIS employees, ensuring access to essential medical services and resources. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As we approach 2026, healthcare consumers should prepare for significant increases in health insurance premiums. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace is set to see some of the steepest hikes since its inception, with rates in certain states jumping by over 60%. As enhanced federal premium subsidies are likely to expire without congressional action, more than 22 million Americans-92% of ACA participants-may confront out-of-pocket premium increases exceeding 75%. This trend reflects not only rising medical costs but also profit pressures from major insurers, creating a challenging environment for consumers seeking affordable healthcare options. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Fidelity National Information Services employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Fidelity National Information Services employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Fidelity National Information Services employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Fidelity National Information Services employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Fidelity National Information Services preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Fidelity National Information Services employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Fidelity National Information Services with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by Fidelity National Information Services?

The 401(k) plan at Fidelity National Information Services is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their salary on a pre-tax basis, helping them build a nest egg for retirement.

How can employees of Fidelity National Information Services enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in the 401(k) plan by accessing the benefits portal provided by Fidelity National Information Services and completing the enrollment process online.

What are the contribution limits for the 401(k) plan at Fidelity National Information Services?

The contribution limits for the 401(k) plan at Fidelity National Information Services are set annually by the IRS, and employees should refer to the current IRS guidelines for the latest limits.

Does Fidelity National Information Services offer matching contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Fidelity National Information Services offers matching contributions to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees increase their retirement savings.

What investment options are available in the Fidelity National Information Services 401(k) plan?

The 401(k) plan at Fidelity National Information Services includes a variety of investment options, such as mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles to suit different risk tolerances.

Can employees of Fidelity National Information Services take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, employees of Fidelity National Information Services may have the option to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to the plan's terms and conditions.

What happens to my 401(k) account if I leave Fidelity National Information Services?

If you leave Fidelity National Information Services, you can choose to roll over your 401(k) account to another qualified retirement plan, cash it out, or leave it in the Fidelity National Information Services plan if allowed.

How often can employees change their contribution amounts to the 401(k) plan at Fidelity National Information Services?

Employees at Fidelity National Information Services can typically change their contribution amounts at any time, subject to the plan's specific rules.

Is there a vesting schedule for employer contributions in the Fidelity National Information Services 401(k) plan?

Yes, Fidelity National Information Services has a vesting schedule for employer contributions, which determines how much of the employer's contributions an employee is entitled to based on their length of service.

How can I access my 401(k) account information at Fidelity National Information Services?

Employees can access their 401(k) account information through the benefits portal provided by Fidelity National Information Services or by contacting the plan administrator.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) offers its employees the Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. 401(k) Profit Sharing Plan through Vanguard, covering approximately 27,995 employees. The 401(k) plan includes both employee and employer contributions, with limits set by the IRS. In 2023, the maximum employee contribution to the 401(k) was $22,500, and this limit rose to $23,000 in 2024. Employees aged 50 and older are eligible for an additional catch-up contribution of $7,500, raising their total possible contribution to $30,000 in 2023 and $30,500 in 2024. Fidelity National Information Services employees can benefit from both traditional and Roth 401(k) options under this plan, which is managed through Vanguard (Capitalize) (FidelityWorkplace). The company's 401(k) plan includes employer contributions, allowing employees to benefit from profit-sharing when the company performs well. Combined employee and employer contributions were capped at $66,000 in 2023 and increased to $69,000 in 2024

Restructuring and Layoffs: In early 2023, FIS announced a significant restructuring plan aimed at optimizing its operations and reducing costs. This involved a reduction in workforce by approximately 6% to streamline its operations and enhance profitability. The company cited the need to adapt to the evolving market demands and competitive landscape as key reasons for these changes. Importance: Given the current economic uncertainty and the shifting landscape of the financial services industry, it is crucial to monitor these developments. The restructuring efforts reflect broader trends in the sector, impacted by economic conditions, investment strategies, and regulatory changes. Understanding these adjustments can provide insights into how companies are navigating the economic environment and managing their resources.

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): In 2022, FIS provided stock options and RSUs to its employees as part of its compensation package. The stock options are typically granted to key employees and executives, while RSUs are offered more broadly across various levels of the company. This practice aligns with FIS's goal to attract and retain top talent. Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): For 2023, FIS continued offering stock options and RSUs. Stock options generally come with a vesting schedule, rewarding long-term commitment, while RSUs are often granted with performance-based vesting criteria. These incentives are designed to align employees' interests with the company's long-term goals. Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): In 2024, FIS has updated its stock options and RSU policies, focusing on increasing their competitive edge in the market. RSUs are commonly granted to senior employees and high performers, with stock options being allocated to executives and strategic hires. This approach helps FIS to maintain a motivated and engaged workforce.

Fidelity National Information Services' Financial and Industry Publications: Sources like Bloomberg, Reuters, or industry-specific publications often cover employee benefits in detail. Employee Reviews and Forums: Websites like Glassdoor or Indeed may have reviews and posts from current or former employees discussing their experiences with health benefits. Government and Legal Sources: Resources like the Department of Labor or legal databases might provide information on any recent changes or compliance issues related to employee benefits.