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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and FMC Employees' Retirement

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'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for FMC employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, FMC employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on FMC employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly FMC employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at FMC preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially FMC employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at FMC with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does FMC Technologies plan to manage the investment strategy of its pension plan to ensure it remains solvent and able to meet the benefit payments as employees retire? Given the shifting dynamics of the market, what specific measures is FMC Technologies employing to enhance the liquidity of its assets and mitigate risks associated with underfunding in the current economic climate?

Investment Strategy for Solvency and Benefit Payments: FMC Technologies' pension plan aims to ensure all benefit payments are met as they fall due. The investment strategy includes maintaining funds above the Statutory Funding Objective and transitioning towards lower-risk assets such as Liability Driven Investments (LDI), gilts, and cash. This strategy, driven by advice from LCP, seeks to reduce underfunding risks and ensure liquidity(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

In what ways does FMC Technologies incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into its investment decision-making for the pension plan? How does the commitment to ESG investing align with the broader goals of FMC Technologies, and what impact does it have on the long-term sustainability and performance of the company's pension investments?

ESG Factors in Investment Decisions: ESG factors, including climate change, are considered by FMC Technologies in investment decisions. The company encourages investment managers to integrate ESG considerations into their analysis of future performance and risks. ESG aligns with the long-term sustainability of the pension plan, though there are limited opportunities to apply ESG in the current target investment strategy of LDI, gilts, and cash(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

Can you elaborate on the additional voluntary contribution (AVC) arrangements available through FMC Technologies and how they are designed to support employees in building a more robust retirement income? What choices do employees have within these AVC options, and how can they tailor their investment to suit their individual risk profiles?

Additional Voluntary Contributions (AVC): FMC Technologies provides AVC arrangements designed to offer a range of investment options to help employees build a more robust retirement income. These options allow employees to tailor investments based on their risk-return preferences, ensuring flexibility in achieving personal retirement goals(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

As employees of FMC Technologies approach retirement, what processes are in place to evaluate their pension benefits and determine eligibility for various retirement options? What role does the pension plan's advisory team play in assisting employees with financial planning in preparation for retirement?

Pension Benefits Evaluation Process: FMC Technologies uses a structured process to evaluate pension benefits, supported by investment advisers and trustees. This process involves regularly reviewing the funding level and the benefit cash flows to ensure the pension plan is on track to meet employee retirement needs. Advisory teams help employees with financial planning during the transition to retirement(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

What steps is FMC Technologies taking to transition its investment strategy towards greater exposure to low-risk instruments while still aiming for satisfactory returns? How does this transition align with the companyâ€™s funding objectives, and what are the anticipated benefits for the employees in the context of their retirement planning?

Transition to Low-Risk Investments: FMC Technologies has transitioned much of its pension assets into LDI, gilts, and cash to de-risk the investment portfolio. This shift aligns with the company's funding objectives to secure pension liabilities and provide stable returns for retirees. The plan is expected to fully transition to these low-risk instruments to support long-term pension solvency(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

How does FMC Technologies measure the performance of its investment managers, and what criteria are used to evaluate their effectiveness in managing the pension plan's assets? In the event that an investment manager does not perform according to expectations, what procedures are in place for FMC Technologies to reassess and possibly reallocate those funds?

Investment Manager Performance: FMC Technologies evaluates the performance of its investment managers using various criteria, including their ability to meet long-term pension objectives. If an investment manager underperforms, FMC Technologies, with advice from LCP, reassesses and rebalances the portfolio as needed to ensure pension assets are properly managed(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

What communication channels does FMC Technologies recommend employees use if they have questions or need clarification regarding their retirement benefits and the pension plan? How can employees easily access additional resources or support to better understand their retirement options as they transition out of active employment?

Communication Channels for Retirement Benefits: Employees of FMC Technologies can access information and support regarding their pension and retirement benefits through direct communication with trustees and the pension advisory team. FMC Technologies recommends utilizing these resources for clarity on retirement options and to understand the transition out of active employment(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

Considering the implications of portfolio diversification, how does FMC Technologies determine the appropriate asset allocation for its pension plan's investment strategy? What considerations are taken into account to ensure that all employeesâ€™ retirement savings are managed in a way that balances risk and growth potential?

Asset Allocation and Portfolio Diversification: FMC Technologies’ pension plan employs a diversified asset allocation strategy, ensuring a balance between growth and risk. The investment strategy considers the need to match liabilities with assets while progressively reducing exposure to high-risk assets like equities and increasing exposure to low-risk instruments like LDI and gilts(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

How does FMC Technologies plan to maintain compliance with regulatory requirements regarding its pension plan, particularly concerning employer-related investments? What are the limitations or restrictions imposed by legislation that affect how FMC Technologies can manage its pension fund assets?

Compliance with Regulatory Requirements: FMC Technologies remains compliant with regulations regarding employer-related investments. Restrictions under the Pensions Act 1995 and the Occupational Pension Schemes (Investment) Regulations 2005 prevent significant investments in TechnipFMC or associated companies to avoid conflicts of interest(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

As risks associated with market fluctuations continue to evolve, how does FMC Technologies plan to adjust its investment strategy to mitigate these risks? What safeguards are put in place to protect retirement benefits during periods of economic uncertainty, and how will these strategies affect the financial well-being of FMC Technologiesâ€™ retirees?

Adjusting Investment Strategy for Market Risks: FMC Technologies employs a liability-driven approach to manage the pension fund, mitigating market risks associated with economic fluctuations. Regular reviews of the investment strategy, alongside professional advice, allow the company to adjust and protect the pension plan's assets during uncertain market conditions(FMC_Technologies_Pensio…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Pension Plan (Defined Benefit Plan): FMC Corporation has a pension plan known as the "FMC Corporation Employees' Retirement Program." This plan is a traditional defined benefit plan, which provides retirement, death, and disability benefits to eligible employees. The plan's benefits are determined based on years of service and final average pay, which is a common formula used to calculate pension payouts. The plan is primarily available to employees who were hired before July 1, 2007. After that date, new hires were no longer eligible for the defined benefit plan but were instead enrolled in the defined contribution plan. 401(k) Plan: The FMC Corporation Savings and Investment Plan is the company’s 401(k) offering. For employees hired after July 1, 2007, this plan serves as their primary retirement vehicle. FMC contributes a percentage of eligible pay to the plan annually. One of the notable features of this plan is the immediate vesting on all contributions, including the company match. This means that employees have full ownership of all contributions from the outset. The plan offers a wide range of investment options managed by Fidelity Investments.

Restructuring Efforts: FMC Corporation has been actively restructuring its operations to improve efficiency and profitability. The company expects to achieve $50 million to $75 million in adjusted EBITDA contributions from restructuring actions in 2024, with a run-rate savings target of approximately $150 million by the end of 2025. This restructuring is critical for FMC as it navigates through the challenges posed by the global economic environment, including supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. Pension and 401(k) Plans: FMC's financial outlook includes maintaining strong adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share growth, which are key metrics that can influence the stability and benefits of its pension and 401(k) plans. As FMC continues its restructuring and cost-saving measures, these benefits could see adjustments to align with the company’s long-term financial goals.

Stock Options: FMC offers Non-Qualified Stock Options (NSOs), which allow employees to purchase company shares at a predetermined strike price after a specific vesting period. These options align employee incentives with the company's financial performance, as they offer the potential for profit if the company's stock price increases. However, employees must be aware of the risks associated with stock options, including potential forfeiture if they leave the company before the options vest. RSUs: FMC also provides RSUs, which grant employees the right to receive company shares once certain vesting conditions are met. RSUs do not require employees to purchase the shares upfront, making them less risky than stock options. Once vested, the shares are delivered to the employees, and they may choose to sell them, subject to capital gains tax.

In 2023 and 2024, FMC Corporation maintained its commitment to employee health and well-being by continuing to enhance its health benefits offerings. This included expanding mental health resources and increasing flexibility in healthcare spending accounts. Despite economic challenges, FMC has focused on providing robust support for its employees, including coverage for telemedicine services and wellness incentives to promote a healthier workforce.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for FMC at , ; or by calling them at .

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